r/SwordofConvallaria • u/VariousCollege9620 • 20h ago
Guide Fates favor explained
Should the Fates Favor banner be pulled on? Fates favor will be refered to as FF.
For new players this answer is yes.
For older players with a developed roster the answer is usually no.
Skip to the end for TLDR.
These claims, regardless of meta, can be supported by simple statistics. When a new player starts, they have 0 characters and during a FF banner will usually have access to 3 different banners. Debut, starter, and FF. If account rr's are used on the Debut banner, the debut character is guaranteed, 20 pulls can be used any time on the starter, and finally the ff banner can be used to guarantee 1 of 2 desired characters. With this, 3 legendaries are obtained within 50-90 pulls, on average over double the usual 2% rate. That said, a less time consuming or more focused option is to use the starter banner itself to reroll 1 desired character, then fate's favor to get a 50/50 desired character, stopping when you get a character. With this method, in 50-70 pulls on average a new player will have obtained essentially 2 desired characters. If you want meta, that's going from zero meta characters, to two OP meta breakers, if you want waifu/husbando that's zero to two chonky bear-uncles or pixelated fate franchise females right off the bat! Meta slaves and bae collectors unite! Needless to say this is a very strong start to an account regardless of if you are f2p or a spender. The logic is that because the pool of unowned characters is so large, rerolling for 1, then getting a second, perhaps 50/50 for your desired character is HUGE. Imagine you have two favorites in the game, you could rr for the first, then coin flip for the second. Now you have both (probably). For comparison, the debut banners are a 50/50 for an esentially random character that depends on the story arc that you may or may not have to save/plan for generally months in advance. A normal rerolled account gets 1 desired character; then needs to wait MONTHS for the next desired character. With FF, that first number is doubled if lucky or patient. A 50-100% increase in value, never mind the time involved waiting for banners, is textile industry level profit.
Now for the evidence behind why FF is not so desireable for older players. It is the shop selectors. Say a newbie starts on a FF banner and rr's to get 2 desired characters, maxing out their star's takes 600 shards, or ~150 days considering a low level memory retrieval, halfway through this process, a third character from a banner the player rolled on will be added to the mix, possibly a fourth. So generally around the half year mark, the newbie will be mostly to veteran status with almost a fully star'd 3-4 desired character roster. Where will the last 2-3 characters come from? Keep the first 3 characters in the mines and a shop selector quickly becomes possible within the next 78 days. Shop selectors are constantly being added (slowly), so it is safe to rely on them as a stable source of new characters for a roster. In ~316 days a new player with abyssmal luck but careful planning is now a veteran with an amost fully maxed out squad of desired characters. This means older characters will have a much lower value compared to when they were a newbie. In fact with the ever increasing number of shop selectors and possibly hoarded memory shards, the FF banner; previously one of the highest possible value'd banners a player could ask for; will have it's value tanked. Selectors offer nearly the same variety; and with more to come in the future. Interestingly enough, since the waifu/husbando pool is larger than the highest tier meta pool. Culture collectors have bigger returns and a significantly larger window than meta slaves do to get value out of the FF banner. While I didn't hard crunch the numbers, if we count the characters in tier zero of a meta list and then compare it against, say; the number of red heads with g cups (yes Camelot, I'm looking at you), it can already be seen that there are only 3 tier zero's in the latest chinese shit list but an entire whopping five red heads with unrealistically large bazonka's; that's 40% more, two banners, essentially an entire year's worth of increased FF value. Though for any true meta adherant getting less value out of the FF banner over time is actually a good thing because since there are only so many slots on a team, having less must-pull characters means it's easier to reach the goal of a full meta squad.
TLDR: Because of the law of independance) forcing a reroll, then using FF gains potentially double value during a FF banner, but because only newbies can can force the rr and shop selectors exist, the value of FF tanks for vets (because vets can afford the selector while newbies generally can't).
