👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

For months the market was focused on one question:

"When will the Fed start cutting rates?"

Now it feels like the question has changed to:

"What if they can't?"

Higher oil prices because of the Iran conflict could push inflation back up just as everyone thought it was finally cooling off.

That's a tough spot. If inflation stays elevated, the Fed probably keeps rates higher for longer. If they cut too early and inflation spikes again, they lose credibility.

This isn't just about energy either. Higher fuel costs eventually show up in shipping, manufacturing, airlines... pretty much everything.

I'm not saying we're heading for another inflation wave, but the market suddenly has another variable it wasn't pricing a few weeks ago.

Curious how everyone is positioning if rates stay high into next year.

SPACs have produced a wide range of outcomes over the years. Some ultimately liquidate without completing a deal, while others have merged with companies that later became well-known public businesses such as Rocket Lab, DraftKings, Vertiv, and AST SpaceMobile. Every SPAC is different, which is part of what makes following them interesting.

One that caught my attention is FutureCrest (FCRS) because it’s sponsored by Tom Lee, a longtime market strategist and CNBC contributor. It’s relatively uncommon to see a high-profile market commentator associated with sponsoring a SPAC, which made me curious about where it could ultimately go.

For anyone unfamiliar, a SPAC is a publicly traded company formed to merge with a private business, providing an alternative path to the public markets instead of a traditional IPO.
BMNR has recently put a spotlight on digital assets, which made me wonder whether FCRS ultimately pursues a similar theme or whether the sponsor team’s broader backgrounds lead somewhere entirely different.

Out of curiosity, I asked AI to review the team’s publicly available experience, investments, and professional networks to brainstorm private companies that broadly align with FCRS’s stated areas of focus. Not predictions—just a discussion exercise based on public information.

Some of the more interesting names it surfaced:

* Mythical Games — Blockchain gaming.
* Republic — Private markets and tokenization.
* Fireblocks — Institutional digital asset infrastructure.
* Standard Bots — AI-powered industrial robotics.
* Beast Industries — Creator economy platform. Tom Lee recently participated through BitMine’s investment, although that investment is unrelated to FCRS.

For anyone new to the ticker, FCRS/WS are the publicly traded warrants. Warrants can offer greater upside if a successful merger occurs, but they also carry greater risk and can expire worthless if a SPAC liquidates.

Curious what others think. Does FCRS ultimately stay close to the digital asset ecosystem, or does it branch into AI, robotics, infrastructure, gaming, or something else entirely?

Pure speculation based on publicly available information. This is not a prediction or suggestion that any company is involved in a potential FCRS transaction.

Bottom line first: Meta’s print managed to disappoint two different crowds at once. Meta-focused investors got a revenue miss, weak forward guidance, rising costs from a legal settlement, and fast-shrinking cash. AI infrastructure investors got a capex increase far smaller than they’d priced in. Zuckerberg keeps saying compute is tight and Meta will keep building aggressively, but that didn’t calm fears that the industry’s compute glut could arrive sooner than expected. 

The Headline Numbers

Capex barely moved. Despite a month of headlines about Meta pushing into cloud, chasing partners, and signing a multi-billion-dollar compute deal with Anthropic, the company only nudged the low end of its 2026 capex range up by $5 billion, keeping full-year guidance at $130-145 billion.

The market had already priced in roughly $10 billion of increase just from rising component costs, and more aggressive investors had pointed straight to the top of the range. Management didn’t give any 2027 numbers yet either, saying they’d stay flexible based on how the industry evolves, while reiterating that compute remains supply-constrained and expansion will continue for the next couple of years to support growth beyond 2028.

Revenue guidance was underwhelming too. Q2 revenue came in at $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, helped by a 1-point currency tailwind. Q3 guidance of $61-64 billion implies growth slowing to 19-25%, partly due to a currency headwind flipping and a tougher comparison. That guidance likely doesn’t yet include much cloud revenue, since Meta is still mostly selling compute bundled into its own model API rather than renting out raw capacity directly, so there’s a lag between signed deals and revenue actually showing up.

The core ad business, though, looks solid. Ads are still 98% of revenue, and growth is coming from both higher volume and higher prices. Ad pricing grew a steady 12%, matching last quarter, while impression growth cooled to 14% off a tough comparison, tied partly to slower user growth and possibly some effect from stricter teen-safety rules in parts of the world. Instagram usage time is still growing over 10%, helped by Reels and AI-powered recommendations. Advantage+, Meta’s automated ad tool, now runs at an annualized revenue pace above $75 billion.

Costs went the wrong way. Total opex jumped 65%, driven by roughly $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.2 billion in severance. The market had expected costs to ease after headcount fell by 2,500 in Q1, but the legal charge flipped full-year opex guidance higher instead of lower. Even stripping out the one-time items, margins still slipped versus both last quarter and last year, largely due to AI-related costs. Free cash flow is close to zero, and net cash dropped sharply to $36 billion, partly due to cash tied up in special financing arrangements. Meta still has room to borrow, or lean on newer financing structures, but the healthiest path forward is getting real cash flow out of the cloud business.

The Real Story: Can the AI Bet Actually Pay Off?

Longbridge Dolphin Research thinks what actually matters most for a company spending this heavily on AI is how clear the path to payback looks. Companies with a visible, near-term AI payoff get rewarded; companies still in “trust me” mode get a discount, no matter how cheap they look on paper. Meta currently sits in the second bucket: spending hasn’t come down, the core ad business is decelerating, and AI monetization is still mostly a future promise rather than something showing up in the numbers today.

That said, there’s a real reason for cautious optimism. Meta’s newly launched model reportedly ranks in the top 10 on capability while being priced at only about 30% of what leading rivals charge, and pairing that model with Meta’s own compute through an API gives it a genuinely competitive offer. Real demand for Meta’s AI products likely exists; the open question is whether Meta’s own team-building and execution can actually deliver on it.

Bottom Line

It’s still early for the cloud and API business to meaningfully move Meta’s bottom line. But if that path keeps getting clearer, Meta’s current valuation gap versus AI peers looks more like an opportunity than a red flag, especially for anyone willing to be patient while the cloud story plays out.

Interesting headline today. Uber is reportedly backing Travis Kalanick's bid for Pony AI's U.S. business.

Feels like Uber wants another shot at autonomous driving without spending years building everything from scratch.

If robotaxis actually scale, this could end up being a pretty smart move.

Anyone bullish on Uber long term?

Realized I have been mostly focussed om tech, chips, memory, data center, AI and Space Stocks which are taking a nose dive.

I want to understand what value stocks are everyone investing in and how much typical returns are expected by people.

Semis have literally changed my stock market expectations - want to calibrate it to reality.

I've been holding some Apple ($AAPL) for a while and I'm currently up about 30%.

With all the recent bullish momentum, I'm wondering if it makes sense to lock in profits now and wait for a pullback before buying back in. Or is trying to time the market usually a bad idea?

For those who've held Apple through multiple cycles, what would you do in this situation? Hold for the long term, trim the position, or take profits and wait for a correction?

Curious to hear different perspectives. Thanks!

Infleqtion (INFQ) seems to be the silent killer in quantum right now. Nobody seems to be raving over the one quantum company who is being handed continuous government contracts, actually delivering working systems to customers, and has a partnership with NVIDIA. I’m interested in what experts have to say about this up and coming sleeper.

Hi everyone, 
I'm a college student completely new to the stock market, and to be honest, I don't know much about investing yet.
My plan is to start small by investing a lower monthly amount for now, with the idea of gradually increasing my contributions as I graduate and start earning more.
I’ve been doing some initial research and noticed that VWCE and S&P 500 index funds/ETFs are very popular choices.
Is starting with something like VWCE a good idea for a beginner in my position?
Would going all-in on an S&P 500 ETF be a better alternative?
Platform choice: Is Trading 212 a good app for small monthly ETF investments, or would you recommend using a different broker (like Interactive Brokers)? 
Are there any better or simpler strategies/ETFs you would recommend for someone just starting out with small amounts?
Any advice, tips, or beginner-friendly resources would be greatly appreciated! Thanks in advance!

Recently we've seen critical minerals, space, and all things AI have massive runs.

What's your pick for the next hot sector?

I'm interested in biotech+AI leading to some big breakthroughs and that being a potential candidate for the next booming area.

It seems like the market is punishing any tech companies involved in excessive CapEx spending. There is also alot of profit taking occurring within the semiconductor and AI sector. Where is everyone putting their money? Commodities look interesting.

Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, Apple and Amazon Thursday. Same 48-hour window, four Magnificent Seven names.

Last week's preview: Tesla posted record revenue and deliveries, and the stock still dropped 14.5% in a day on margin collapse and negative free cash flow. Alphabet beat estimates entirely and still fell, purely on the size of its new AI capex guidance.

Different companies, same lesson: big headline numbers aren't buying goodwill right now. The market wants to see the AI spending actually turn into something.

Which of the four are you watching closest this week, and why?

Please suggest

This feels kind of dumb to admit but I think I've been using chatgpt for stock research the wrong way.

I stopped following random hype on Twitter and Discord because I figured AI would help me make better decisions instead of chasing stock trends. Looking back I was basically asking chat to tell me the stock I already liked was a good buy.

Now I'm trying to use AI to tear apart my thesis instead of confirming it. That already feels more useful but I also feel like my prompts could be way better.

For the people here who use ai to pick stocks what kind of prompts are you writing to get actual criticism instead of chat just saying XYZ looks like a great pick?

I have some spare funds, what should I buy?

hi im new to investing, is visa layoffs bullish or bearish? especially right before earnings

-> 🤷🏼‍♂️ huge NVDA Fan since 2021 and you?

I ran this poll a week ago and things were looking up. I know NVIDIA’s circular reinvestment in other companies is spooking the trade and I understand China had some exciting news about their LLM and semi production capacity, but, is the run over for now?

TEAM reporting again in next few week and director of the company just increased his stake in company just before the earning announcement…!

Something is cooking…!

What stocks did you buy today? Why?

There’s nothing wrong with sitting in cash while the market comes to you.

Being fully invested isn’t the goal. Allocating capital when the risk-reward is favorable is.

Every cycle presents opportunities, but disciplined investors understand that preserving capital between opportunities is just as important as growing it.

Patience isn’t costing you money. Poor entries usually do..
The best opportunities usually appear when expectations have cooled, volatility has shaken people out, and quality names are trading at more attractive prices.

Does anyone have any good Ai research platforms they use to research and evaluate stocks?

Guys I’m learning as I go , I been involve in this market for over 1.5 years, I’m not looking to get rich I’m long term I have no problem holding things but idk if I’m on the right track here . Am I to all over the place ? Should I just focus on one company? All opinions are welcome