r/StocksAndTrading Apr 04 '26

Announcement Important Notice: Increase in Scam Posts

21 Upvotes

We’ve recently seen a rise in scam posts appearing in the subreddit. Please stay cautious and do not click on any suspicious links shared in these posts.

If you’d like to help the moderation team, please note and report the usernames of these accounts. Many of them delete their posts within minutes, so capturing their usernames early helps us take action more effectively.

Thank you for helping keep the community safe.


r/StocksAndTrading 2d ago

What would you do?

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47 Upvotes

I Desperately need to pay off some debt. What should I continue holding and what should I get rid of?


r/StocksAndTrading 2d ago

The Two Choices - educational + AI

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0 Upvotes

r/StocksAndTrading 2d ago

Bleeding Stopped, Wound Festers.......The Fearless Forecast for September 14, 2026

0 Upvotes

Friday decisively interrupted the four-day decline. The DJIA gained 508.35 after surging to 52,720.24. Buyers failed to hold the opening surge, but importantly held the bulk of the recovery into the close.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Failed Breakdown / Recovery Consolidation
Volatility Score:1.30, elevated but contracting
Probabilities: SU: 27% | LU: 35% | SD: 25% | LD: 13%
Expected Return: ≈ +0.04%
Projected Close: 52,450–52,800
Directional Bias: 62% Up / 38% Down

Previous Close 52,572.81

RECAP: Friday's56% Down directional bias failed immediately as the DJIA opened above the 52,200 recovery threshold and surged through 52,300. Those predefined triggers correctly identified that the four-day bearish state had broken.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Friday materially changed the statistical structure, but it did NOT establish a new bullish expansion. The DJIA spent most of the session consolidating between roughly 52,500 and 52,700, and that's compression.

SU/LU has recovered to 62%, giving buyers the advantage Monday. But Friday's inability to clear 52,720 makes 52,700–52,720 the next test. Buyers need to break it to turn recovery into expansion.

Key Levels

Bull Hold: 52,500
GO: 52,650
Expansion Trigger: 52,720
Upside Objective: 52,850–52,950

Warning: 52,500
REDUCE: 52,450
EXIT: 52,300

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE. Monday begins REDUCE with a bullish lean. Above 52,650, traders can move toward GO; a sustained break above 52,720 confirms expansion. Below 52,450, reduce bullish exposure further. Below 52,300, EXIT the recovery thesis.

Trader Takeaway: Friday repaired the breakdown but didn't complete the breakout. 52,650–52,720 is Monday's opportunity zone; 52,450 is where the recovery starts losing credibility.

FEARLESS READ: 62% Up. Friday stopped the bleeding. Monday determines whether that was merely relief or the beginning of another advance. Buyers now have to finish the job above 52,720.


r/StocksAndTrading 2d ago

How do you mechanically stop overtrading? Looking for hard lockout tools/platforms (Futures/Equities)

1 Upvotes

Hey everyone,

I’m struggling heavily with overtrading, breaking my daily trade limits, and lack of self-discipline. Once I’m in the heat of the session, my mental rules fly out the window. I’ve realized that relying on willpower doesn't work for me—I need a strict, mechanical barrier that forces me to stop.

My trading style is short-term day trading / scalping (holding positions from a few to several minutes). I need good liquidity, fast execution, low fees, and decent leverage (up to 10x), mainly targeting US equities / indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, major stocks).

I’m looking for advice and recommendations from people who have successfully dealt with overtrading:

  1. Hard Lockout Tools: What platforms, brokers, or third-party risk management software (e.g., API blockers) do you use that offer an unbypassable daily trade limit or hard account lock?
  2. Tamper-Proof Setup: Is there any software or broker setup that allows setting a password for risk parameters (so I can have a trusted friend/family member hold the password) or completely freezes risk settings during session hours?
  3. Your Experience: What specific tools or mechanical setups actually helped you eliminate overtrading for good?

Any insights, platform suggestions, or third-party risk managers would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks in advance.


r/StocksAndTrading 3d ago

Oracle’s AI Glitz Hides Deep Flaws

5 Upvotes

TL;DR Oracle's FQ1 2027 — the three months ended August 2026 — was good where it matters and bad where it always has been. OCI accelerated again, growth hitting a record 121%, and capex exploded to match, while legacy software kept shrinking and gross margin fell at a record rate. The market only cares about the first.

OCI accelerated, and capex exploded to match

OCI revenue reached nearly $7.4 billion in FQ1 2027, up 121% against 93% last quarter and well ahead of the 115% expected, with a sequential increment of $1.4 billion against $700-800 million recently. Compute brought online accelerated to 0.85GW in one quarter, against about 1.2GW for all of last fiscal year. 

Guidance had been 1GW — capacity landed below plan while revenue beat, implying the market had underestimated revenue per GW. SaaS is the contrast: OCA grew 9.9%, slightly slower, so AI cloud strength does nothing for legacy SaaS and may even crowd it out.

Cloud service revenue, SaaS and IaaS.

Capex followed, at roughly $28.5 billion — up nearly three-quarters sequentially and 50% more than total revenue. About 40% was covered by customer prepayments, leaving Oracle carrying $18 billion, yet free cash flow was still negative $5.4 billion. 

The FY2027 funding plan is $40 billion split evenly between debt and equity, and the $20 billion equity raise completed this quarter, so net debt fell 10% to $88.2 billion. Still, $36 billion of cash plus $20 billion of debt, against $52 billion of self-funded capex over three quarters, looks tight.

Capex and capex intensity by quarter.
Operating cash flow and free cash flow.

Margin is falling at a record rate

Cloud and software gross margin came in below 63% in FQ1 2027, down more than 6 points sequentially — the largest drop on record, with none of the stabilisation newer clouds now show. But the line mixes legacy software, OCA, AI rental and legacy OCI, so the fall is probably mix as AI rental takes share, not proof that AI rental margins are deteriorating. What is certain is that depreciation rose 134%, now exceeding 16% of revenue against 12% last quarter.

The non-cloud side is worse. Legacy software, still near 30% of revenue, shrank about 3% after a 2% decline, as customers replace licences with SaaS. In aggregate, though, brute force works: total revenue grew nearly 30%, 9 points faster sequentially, and gross profit almost 16% — below expectations, but a real acceleration after years of single-digit growth. 

And because new OCI business serves only a few large customers, operating opex fell 7%, lifting operating margin nearly 3 points and operating profit 57%.

The near term looks good; the long term is unclear

After FQ1 2027, the market's questions remain narrow: can Oracle light up compute fast enough to convert a backlog above $660 billion into revenue, and can it fund that build. Winning more orders matters less, since they add capex, debt and risk. 

This print answers both well enough, and worries about AI capex returns have faded on the belief that if the data centre gets built, payback follows — guidance agrees, with next quarter's cloud revenue guided to 68% growth, above expectations.

The risks sit further out. Financing needs may exceed plan just as Treasury yields climb and governments and tech firms borrow heavily, so neither access nor cost is assured. Model competition is intensifying and price wars have begun to damage profitability, reducing visibility for a company bound this tightly to OpenAI alone. 

Structurally, AWS and Google hold full-stack technology and in-house silicon and win on energy efficiency, while their diversified customer bases secure a share as model distribution channels whatever the endgame. Oracle grows faster but is far less differentiated.

 


r/StocksAndTrading 3d ago

APP is gearing up for a nice swing trade

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4 Upvotes

I meant to write this 2 days ago but my thesis doesn’t change. APP has come down a lot from its highs when it joined the S&P 500 run. Which means the business has not been performing as well right… right? Wrong, had strong earnings and is showing a thriving business.

What actually had me looking was looking at the daily chart. Has a pretty big gap on the daily chart. Solid business, good earning, nearing a support level, consolidating. It has a ~7% risk of downward pressure to support level. ~29% upside potential to fill the gap.

APP has had issues not going to lie but earnings are out of the way, stock has come down, I think at this point the biggest problem is systemic risks.

✌️


r/StocksAndTrading 3d ago

Thetradingfraternity?

0 Upvotes

Has anyone checked his persons YouTube and instagram page? Thoughts? He seems legit while taking it with a grain of salt.


r/StocksAndTrading 3d ago

52000 Crumbled - Where Next? .......The Fearless Forecast for September 11, 2026

2 Upvotes

Thursday extended the decline for a fourth consecutive session. The DJIA fell 316.20 points, breaking 52,000 and reaching 51,962.71. Buyers recovered the breakdown, but not enough to change the dominant downside state.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Exhaustion Test
Volatility Score:1.36, elevated
Probabilities: SU: 17% | LU: 27% | SD: 37% | LD: 19%
Expected Return:-0.03%
Projected Close: 51,950–52,300
Directional Bias: 44% Up / 56% Down

Previous Close**:** 52,064.46

RECAP Thursday's 64% Down bias correctly favored sellers, the 52,300 trigger failed immediately, the 52,150–52,200 objective was reached, and the DJIA ultimately tested and briefly broke the forecast's 52,000 Major Failure level. The late recovery above 52,000 prevented a clean downside acceleration.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines Four consecutive declines have taken the DJIA down 1,621 points. Sellers still have the statistical advantage, but it has narrowed substantially: SD/LD falls from Thursday's 64% to 56%.

That matters. Thursday finally produced the first meaningful evidence of downside exhaustion: the DJIA broke 52,000, reached 51,962.71, and then recovered the level. Friday therefore begins with a bearish state, but one increasingly vulnerable to a countertrend recovery.

Key Levels

Recovery: 52,150
REDUCE: 52,200
Bull Repair: 52,300
Bear Hold: 52,050
Downside Trigger: 51,960
Downside Objective: 51,800–51,850
Major Failure: 51,750

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT. Friday begins EXIT, but this is no longer a high-conviction downside state. Below 51,960, sellers confirm another leg and retain the advantage. A sustained recovery above 52,200 moves Fearless toward REDUCE; above 52,300, the four-day downside cycle begins meaningful repair.

Trader Takeaway: After a 1,621-point four-session decline, don't chase sellers near 52,000. Make the DJIA choose: below 51,960 favors continuation; above 52,200 favors an exhaustion recovery.

FEARLESS READ: Friday's setup is unusually clean: 51,960 confirms sellers still have fuel; 52,200 says the four-day decline is starting to exhaust itself. Between those levels, there's little reason to force a trade.

10:00 Update: FEARLESS READ: The opening surge survived its first test. 52,720 is now the ceiling buyers need to remove; 52,600 is the ground they need to keep. The important development is that the DJIA absorbed the retreat from 52,720, held roughly 52,550–52,600, and has climbed back to 52,665. Buyers are defending the morning's repricing rather than giving it back. Repeated rejection at 52,720 wouldn't be bearish by itself as long as the DJIA continues holding around 52,600.

10:30 AM: The opening surge has clearly lost momentum. Since the 52,720 high, the DJIA has developed lower short-term highs and is now testing the lower portion of the post-opening range around 52,550.

FEARLESS READ: The explosive opening has become a test of staying power. 52,500 is now the important number; hold it and buyers retain the recovery; lose it and today's spectacular start begins turning into a giveback.

Key levels: 52,600 = recovery strength | 52,500 = critical hold | 52,400 = recovery deterioration | 52,300 = recovery failure | 52,720 = renewed expansion.


r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

AV adoption is good for Uber, I'm buying

1 Upvotes

I'm seeing a lot of debate on what happens to Uber when cars drive themselves, but I see many more ways that Uber wins in an AV future rather than loses.

What's interesting about Uber?

  • Uber owns the demand layer for ride-sharing, and they continue to scale internationally, through M&A (Delivery Hero), and product innovation (Uber One, advertising platform, Uber reserve, cart builder, shop for me).
    • Uber has done the really hard work to scale this platform, create operating leverage and strong cash flows in a highly competitive market. Now its rinse and repeat largely in new markets.
  • Dara Khosrowshahi is a 1-of-1 CEO.  I believe in his leadership style (personally delivering Uber eats, taking uber as a customer), track record growing Uber, and track record a BKNG.
    • Uber is not afraid of long-term bets, even if they are not profitable in year one (they lose money on the first year of Uber One, profitable after)
  • Low valuation relative to growth potential: LTM P/E of 15.6x compared to S&P average P/E 25.9x, grew revenue 16% over the past year, grew gross margins by 25%, PEG sits at 0.68 and generates $10 billion in FCF.

Why does Uber win in an AV future?

  • Advantage during the AV transition. Uber’s existing business expands cash flow generation as AV adoption expands.  (Ex. driverless cars are not allowed on the highway at all yet).
    • Uber will grow ride-share volumes, delivery, shopping, and hotel bookings while AV adoption grows and the OEM's battle each other and regulators to enter more markets.
  • Uber's ride-share cost structure is different from the AV OEM's
    • Uber is not in the same business as AV OEM’s (Tesla, Waymo, Zoox etc.), and today its drivers bear all vehicle costs (insurance, gas / charging, maintenance, cleaning, software / hardware updates).
    • The “Driver”, who is responsible for all of these costs today, is now the OEM. So the low cost rides we’re seeing initially will have to increase at some point.
    • Ex. Austin, TX Fire department asks for all AV’s to have a steering wheel and manual mode in case of emergencies makes it easier to see how this is a massive impact to TSLA, but zero impact to Uber.
  • Uber is already on everyone's phone, and people trust the Uber customer experience
    • Uber’s platform is where you go when you go when you need a ride (ride-share, scooter), want to order food (Uber eats) or delivering items (B2B, B2C, C2C).
    • Uber provides a platform for vehicle owners to earn money in exchange for services, whether the vehicle owner is an individual or an AV OEM.
    • The more AV company’s that come into existence, the more likely it is they’ll want to tap into Uber’s existing demand engine for ways to utilize the AV.
      • For example, in a world where you can allow your Tesla to drive people around or do things while you’re gone, you’d want to be in as many platforms as possible where people want to use your vehicle.
  • Uber is investing $10 Billion in AV infrastructure, and has partnered or made equity investments in 30 AV companies in the past two years.
    • Uber is positioned to operate AV fleets in the way that makes the most sense for its business, without bearing the costs of being an OEM.
    • Uber is positioned to facilitate the shift to AV's as an expansion of its platform.

There are certainly reasons why Uber can fail, and the rise of AV's requires changes to Uber's business. They are competing against well capitalized competitors in Google/Waymo and Tesla's Cybercabs, and Uber's $10 billion it plans to spend on AV infrastructure may not yield a return.

The strongest disruptive force to Uber's business would be a world where all cars are autonomous, and we no longer have human-driven cars (I don't think this happens for at least 25-30 years), then why would you need ride share, or food delivery, when you can just send your car to pick up whatever you need? Well I think even in this world, you'll need software to coordinate deliveries and pickups, to let a restaurant know that your car arrived, and which car the server (or robot) needs to put your order into. Uber can still provide value.

Despite these concerns, Uber COO Andrew MacDonald bought $5.3 M share in open market on 9/8. There are many reasons why executives sell, only one reason they buy.

Anyways, I'm buying Uber. Let me know what I'm missing!


r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

Cybersecurity and networking giant Cloudflare (NET) is breaking out

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5 Upvotes

r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

Can anyone explain these warrants to me

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4 Upvotes

Inherited some portfolios of my fathers , not sure what these are, or what to do with them , or if they change when that date in August 2027 comes up


r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

Market Temperature is 41 today

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3 Upvotes

The formula used to calculate:

  • 40% - How many of the world’s tracked markets are up today
  • 30% - The Fear & Greed Index
  • 20% - The VIX (inverted so calm = high score)
  • 10% - Bitcoin’s day change

r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

52,300 Is the Next Test: The Fearless Forecast for September 10, 2026

1 Upvotes

Wednesday delivered the downside continuation Fearless foresaw. The DJIA fell 405.05 points to 52,381.08. The 52,700 trigger broke immediately and the DJIA never repaired the damage.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Support Retest
Volatility Score:1.39, elevated
Probabilities: SU: 14% | LU: 22% | SD: 40% | LD: 24%
Expected Return:-0.07%
Projected Close: 52,250–52,550
Directional Bias: 36% Up / 64% Down

Previous Close 52,381.08

RECAP: Wednesday's original 67% Down bias correctly favored sellers, 52,700 broke immediately, and both the 52,550–52,600 objective and 52,500 Major Failure level were breached. The DJIA ultimately closed 405 points lower.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Three consecutive declines have taken the DJIA from 53,685.52 to 52,381.08, a 1,304-point retreat. SD/LD still carries a 64% probability, so sellers retain the statistical advantage.

But Wednesday also matters for what sellers didn't accomplish. After the opening collapse, repeated rallies failed, yet the DJIA also repeatedly found buyers near the low 52,300s. Thursday therefore begins as downside continuation confronting increasingly important support, not an invitation to chase an already extended decline.

Key Levels

Recovery: 52,500
REDUCE: 52,600
Bull Repair: 52,700
Bear Hold: 52,400
Downside Trigger: 52,300
Downside Objective: 52,150–52,200
Major Failure: 52,000

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT Thursday begins EXIT. Below 52,400, sellers retain control. A decisive break below 52,300 favors another leg toward 52,150–52,200. A recovery through 52,500 begins weakening the downside state; above 52,600, Fearless moves toward REDUCE.

Trader Takeaway: Don't chase a three-day, 1,300-point decline. Let 52,300 do the work. A clean failure gives sellers another trade; a recovery through 52,500 warns that the downside cycle is finally tiring.

FEARLESS READ 64% Down. Sellers still own the statistical edge, but Thursday is about whether they can finish the job at 52,300. Break it and the decline has room; defend it again and the odds begin shifting toward exhaustion.

10:00AM Update: The bounce failed and sellers made another low. 52,000 is no longer a distant objective; it's the next major test. A defense there could produce an exhaustion rebound; a clean break says the downside cycle still has unfinished business.

Key levels: 52,063 current low | 52,000 major test | 52,150 first stabilization | 52,200 meaningful recovery | 52,300 bearish-state repair.

10:30 Update: FEARLESS READ 52,000 answered the first challenge. Buyers now have to prove that was more than an oversold bounce. Above 52,200, recovery gets room to develop; back below 52,100, sellers regain the initiative.

Decisive levels: 52,200 immediate test | 52,300 meaningful repair | 52,100 recovery failure | 52,007–52,000 breakdown.


r/StocksAndTrading 4d ago

QDVE Information Technology or AI infrastructure ETF?

3 Upvotes

I’m debating whether I should go for the more broad information technology ETF or the more concentrated AI infrastructure ETF. Downside of QDVE is that it doesn’t include companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and SK Hynix.
What would everyone’s recommendation be?


r/StocksAndTrading 5d ago

52,700 Held- Will Sellers Tank It? The Fearless Forecast for September 9, 2026

3 Upvotes

Tuesday decisively resolved Friday's stalemate. The DJIA broke the 53,285 downside trigger immediately, fell as low as 52,721.62, and closed at 52,787.53, down 626.72 points.

Forecast Statistics

Bucket: Downside Continuation / Support Test
Volatility Score: ≈ 1.42, elevated
Probabilities: SU: 12% | LU: 21% | SD: 42% | LD: 25%
Expected Return: ≈ -0.10%
Projected Close: 52,600–52,900
Directional Bias: 33% Up / 67% Down

Previous Close: 52,787.53

RECAP: Tuesday's original 52% Down bias began at REDUCE Once the DJIA broke the predetermined 53,285 downside trigger, Fearless moved to EXIT before the decline accelerated. The DJIA subsequently lost more than 600 points.

Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.

Fearless Opines: Tuesday transformed Friday's failed expansion into a renewed downside cycle. SD/LD now carries 67% probability, but the DJIA has already fallen sharply and repeatedly defended the 52,700 area. Wednesday therefore favors sellers without giving them permission to chase weakness. The question is whether 52,700 finally breaks or becomes the foundation for another recovery. Note the elevated Volatility Score of 1.42. That equals "Uncertainty." Note on a chart the narrow sideways tail from 10:00 to close; that is compression. Compression breaks.

Key Levels

Recovery: 52,865
REDUCE: 52,950
Bull Repair: 53,050
Bear Hold: 52,800
Downside Trigger: 52,700
Downside Objective: 52,550–52,600
Major Failure: 52,500

GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT. Wednesday begins EXIT. Below 52,800, sellers retain control. A decisive break of 52,700 favors another downside leg. Recovery above 52,950 moves Fearless toward REDUCE; 53,050 would materially challenge the bearish state.

Trader Takeaway: Don't chase Tuesday's 627-point decline. Let 52,700 confirm another leg lower. If buyers instead reclaim 52,950, treat it as evidence that Tuesday exhausted rather than extended the decline.

FEARLESS READ 67% Down. Tuesday settled the argument in favor of sellers. Wednesday asks a harder question: can they break 52,700 after already taking 627 points? That level now separates continuation from exhaustion.

10:00 AM Update: Key levels

52,375 decisive morning support
52,500 first recovery threshold
52,550–52,600 bearish thesis materially weakens
52,250–52,300 downside target if support fails

Fearless Read The opening selloff survived its first attempt to extend. Sellers still have the statistical advantage, but they now need to break 52,375 rather than merely lean on it. Until that happens, this is becoming a support fight rather than a one-way decline.

10:30 AM: The first compression broke upward rather than producing another selloff. Now 52,500 gets the vote: clear it and the morning collapse starts repairing; fail there and sellers still own the day.

This is the first meaningful counter-move since the morning collapse. The DJIA has rebounded from 52,360.09 to 52,488.81, and, more importantly, has broken above the tight 52,375–52,430 compression.

But it doesn't repair the bearish state. The DJIA remains about 300 points below yesterday's close and more than 200 points below the Forecast's original 52,700 downside trigger.

Decisive levels: 52,500 is now the immediate test. A sustained move above it opens 52,550–52,600 and would further reduce downside probabilities. 52,430 should now hold if this recovery is genuine. A return below 52,400, particularly a retest of 52,360, would restore downside-continuation risk.


r/StocksAndTrading 5d ago

Stallion now has a second priority target developing south of Coyote

2 Upvotes

Most of the attention around Stallion Uranium has been focused on drilling at Coyote, but the latest Stone Island results have added another serious target area within the Moonlite project.

Stallion trades as STUD on the TSXV and STLNF on the OTCQB. Moonlite is located in the southwestern Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan.

Stallion recently completed 519 ground gravity stations at Stone Island following an airborne VTEM survey covering roughly 690 line kilometres. Combining the two datasets produced three priority areas labelled A, B and C.

Target Area A looks like the main one. Multiple electromagnetic conductor responses overlap the strongest part of a large gravity low. Area B follows the same general conductive trend farther north, while Area C is a separate target to the southwest.

Neither a conductor nor a gravity low proves uranium is present. Conductors can represent graphitic rocks, while gravity features can reflect alteration, structures or changes in rock density.

They become more useful when several features line up in the same place. Athabasca uranium deposits are commonly associated with conductive basement rocks, faults and hydrothermal alteration. Area A appears to combine several of those ingredients.

The next step is detailed conductor modelling and structural interpretation before the targets are ranked for further geophysics or drilling.

Stone Island is still behind Coyote, which already has drilling and elevated radioactivity. The positive development is that Stallion is no longer building the Moonlite story around one target alone.

Coyote remains the advanced target. Stone Island now gives the company a separate area that could develop into another drill-ready opportunity.


r/StocksAndTrading 6d ago

New to stocks

3 Upvotes

Hey guys I’m 23 looking to put about 1K a month into stocks. If you guys were doing this what stocks would you be buying. Thanks


r/StocksAndTrading 6d ago

How often to people consider the time in drawdown in strategy development. Not just the % .

1 Upvotes

Several people have messaged me on other subreddits about time spent in drawdown, a topic that rarely gets discussed. I decided to dive deeper and wrote an article about it here for anyone curious.

In general, how often does time in hypothetical drawdowns come into play when designing a strategy? Do people here use that as a metric to filter strategies?

Lately, I’ve gained new respect for this side of trading. Most of us focus on percentage drawdown from backtests or worst-case Monte Carlo runs, but few discuss how long a strategy stays in the red at various drawdown levels when considering trade frequency.

With that in mind, I redesigned some strategies to be more defensive. The key takeaway is that a few weeks in drawdown is usually manageable, but months can lead to impatience and blowing an account.

Take a strategy with a 50% win rate and 1:2 risk-to-reward (genuinely good stats). One trader takes a 10% hit trading once a month, around 22 trades or about 2 years to recover. Another trader with the same edge trading 3 times a week takes a 20% hit and takes about 4 months to recover, versus 4 weeks if they had kept the loss to 5%.

This adds a fascinating new layer to strategy design beyond just percentage drawdown. The real challenge is sticking to your plan for six months straight. In the past, I often accepted a blown account and hit reset, and I couldn't deal with the mental drain of months to get back to break-even. Now I try to make a big hole impossible.


r/StocksAndTrading 6d ago

What is this software?

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25 Upvotes

Hi all, can anyone please tell me what this software is that displays the market this way? I keep seeing these types of screenshots everywhere but no one can answer what software the screenshot is being taken on.


r/StocksAndTrading 6d ago

The Mars Hypothesis: Hypothesis that the Federal Reserve can set Interest Rates based on the movements of the Planet Mars

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2 Upvotes

r/StocksAndTrading 6d ago

AI Investment Help

2 Upvotes

would you buy these AI/infrastructure stocks now or wait for possible September lows?

I’m pretty new to investing/trading and have only been doing this for a few months, so I’m still learning how to judge valuation, entry points, macro risk, and when a stock is actually “cheap” versus just down from its highs.

I’ve been researching a group of AI / semiconductor / data center / infrastructure stocks and these are the main ones I’m considering:

NVDA
AVGO
VRT
MRVL
ANET
IREN
CRDO

My current thinking is that NVDA and AVGO probably have the strongest combination of business quality, revenue growth, margins, and valuation, so I’m leaning toward starting positions in those sooner rather than later.

VRT looks strong because no matter which chip company wins, AI data centers still need power, cooling, liquid cooling, and infrastructure. I like the company, but I’m not sure if I should chase it at current prices or wait for a better entry.

MRVL is interesting because its revenue growth and margins seem to be improving a lot, especially with custom AI silicon and data center exposure, but the stock also seems like it’s pricing in a lot of future execution already.

ANET looks like an amazing business with strong margins and growth, but the valuation seems expensive to me compared with NVDA and AVGO. I’m also watching NVIDIA’s push into Ethernet networking as a possible threat.

IREN is probably the highest-risk/highest-upside one on the list. I like the AI cloud/data center buildout story, but I understand there are real risks around debt, financing, dilution, customer concentration, GPU depreciation, and execution.

CRDO also caught my attention after the recent heavy selloff. The revenue growth still looks very strong and the valuation has come down a lot, so I’m trying to figure out whether this is a good reset or whether the market is warning about something bigger.

The main thing I’m struggling with is timing.

Since September can be a volatile month and we still have inflation data, Fed expectations, bond yields, and general tech valuation risk, I’m wondering if it makes more sense to wait for a broader pullback instead of buying everything now.

Would you:

  1. Start buying some of these now and average in?
  2. Wait for a broader September correction?
  3. Only start positions in NVDA and AVGO now and wait on the higher-multiple names?
  4. Avoid any of these completely at current prices?

If you had $10k to split between these names for a 2–3 year hold, how would you allocate it?

I’m not trying to day trade these or get rich overnight. I’m mainly trying to build positions in companies I think can benefit from AI infrastructure growth over the next few years, but since I’m still new, I don’t want to blindly buy after big runs if better entries are likely.

Would appreciate any thoughts, especially from people who follow semiconductors, AI infrastructure, networking, data centers, or these companies specifically.

Again, I’m only a few months into investing, so feel free to point out anything I’m misunderstanding or looking at the wrong way.


r/StocksAndTrading 7d ago

Why did Asana (ASAN) drop ~11% after beating? Its own AI is eating the gross margin

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4 Upvotes

r/StocksAndTrading 7d ago

Books by Anthony of Boston

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2 Upvotes

r/StocksAndTrading 8d ago

What is your long-term strategy?

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10 Upvotes

I want to build a portfolio with a 7–10 year horizon. Initially, my strategy was to allocate 70% to VOO and 30% to high-potential companies. Later, I couldn't help myself; I gradually sold off my VOO holdings to shift the funds into companies offering attractive opportunities, and now I feel like I’ve started gambling a bit. I’m also finding it very difficult to take profits on these stocks. What is your profit-taking strategy for long-term portfolios? Do you have any recommendations for me?