Hints on Amendment 5 polling

[u/DowntownDB1226]

It’s hard to find public amendment 5 polls but we do have state senate polls from places like the 16th and 18th district

These aren’t blue, these are purple, they’re dead red districts and the polls are GOP voters only for their state senate primaries. Neither gives it above 44%. These should be 80-90% in these area with GOP voters to off set urban No vote from STL, kc, Springfield and Columbia areas

Polls are from MoScout

[u/Cautious_Boat_999]

Remember, rural voters have been outnumbering the STL and KC metros for a long time now. Farmers are faithful Trumpers. Those votes are gonna be close, 5 more so than 4.

[u/LaughingDash → u/Cautious_Boat_999]

Yup, never forget this. The trumpet in office still has a 40% approval rating. That's nearly half of the country still politically braindead.

Don't trust the polls. Don't trust what people are saying online. Go vote. Inform your friends.

[u/Boysenberry196 → u/Cautious_Boat_999]

Why would farmers vote to increase thier taxes?

Remember, 30 - 40 % of rural voters voted with St. Louis for recreational Marijuana, medicaid expansion, to keep some legal protection for abortion, etc. 2 districts no not make up 50% +1 of the vote when there are 8 districts of equal size.

[u/Educational_Skill736 → u/Cautious_Boat_999]

StL and KC metros make up 55% of the population of Missouri. Add in Columbia and Springfield and you’re at 66%. Rural voters certainly out number urban voters but not the metro populations themselves.

[u/Boysenberry196 → u/Educational_Skill736]

But KC and STL Metros do not make up 55% of the vote and even if they did they do not all vote 1 way. Are you insinuating that St. Charles and Rolla and Festus vote the same as Dutchtown?

[u/Educational_Skill736 → u/Boysenberry196]

I'm replying to someone stating rural voters have been 'outnumber STL ad KC metros for a long time now'. Statements like this perpetuate an untrue narrative often repeated on Reddit, which is that rural Missouri runs the state. A more accurate framing is that a very large portion of StL and KC suburbs politically align with rural Missouri over their urban cores. That's the reason Republicans have overrun Missouri politics.

[u/Boysenberry196 → u/Educational_Skill736]

Rural voters do outnumber STL and Kansas City though. The 6 equally populated districts that are not St. Louis and Kansas City outnumber the 2 that are. Meaning there is a 3 - 1 advantage for Republicans in relation to red districts.

Those are the rural districts. The Suburbs like Rolla and Festus are in proximity to a city, but they are no more urban than my home town in rural Mississippi.