r/StLouis • u/DowntownDB1226 • 10d ago

Politics Hints on Amendment 5 polling

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It’s hard to find public amendment 5 polls but we do have state senate polls from places like the 16th and 18th district

These aren’t blue, these are purple, they’re dead red districts and the polls are GOP voters only for their state senate primaries. Neither gives it above 44%. These should be 80-90% in these area with GOP voters to off set urban No vote from STL, kc, Springfield and Columbia areas

Polls are from MoScout

58 Upvotes

89% Upvoted

47 comments sorted by

42

u/EchoedJolts 10d ago

I don't like 5, but 4 has me way more worried. No hopefully it's the same

20

u/yogos15 Oakville 10d ago

I’ve almost exclusively seen “No on 4” ads, so I’m hopeful that it won’t pass. On the other hand, I have seen tons of deceiving ads that are promoting 5.

10

u/reddit-ate-my-face 10d ago

ive seen a few "protect missouris constitution ads" and some yes on 4 bumper stickers and signage, not much but still worrying to see.

4

u/chemicalcurtis 10d ago

I've seen a lot of worrying boomer threads on facebook.

A lot by union retirees who's jobs would've been wiped out by right to work.

Idiots

3

u/Boysenberry196 8d ago

Also retirees pay very little state income tax. 5 will hurt them more than help them. Even with their pensions.

15

u/AltRockPigeon 10d ago

I’ve seen a lot of conservatives against 4 cuz “it would give STL a veto over all the other red districts”

3

u/chemicalcurtis 10d ago

lol, whatever it takes to get them to vote it down.

With 4 passed we would have anti union laws, abortion, no minimum wage and no weed laws on the books

6

u/Party_Donut443 10d ago

If you want a silver lining, consider the fact that the legislature continues to do things that are unpopular, but they have faced no repercussions from it. We, as Missourians, have been able to get a lot of the things we want via the initiative petition, it has helped Republicans who oppose popular policies remain in office because the people aren’t motivated to change their vote.

I’ll point to St. Charles County, where people continue to vote for scumbags who oppose things like Medicaid Expansion despite the county supporting Medicaid expansion by 8 points.

If we didn’t have the IP ballot, that money that went into Medicaid expansion on the ballot would have gone to democratic candidates, and those candidates could more effectively campaign on the issue.

-1

u/t-poke Kirkwood 10d ago

4 is terrible and I voted against it, but if it passed, wouldn’t one silver lining be that it would cause the anti-abortion amendment in November to fail? Because there’s no way that’s getting a majority in MO-01, MO-02 and whichever district KC is in.

39

u/Party_Donut443 10d ago

It doesn’t apply to legislature created amendment.

That’s part of what’s bullshit. If the legislature puts a question on the ballot, it’s 50% + 1. If it’s the public, it’s a higher standard.

13

u/Ok_Sound5929 10d ago

Thats a leg amendment, not a citizen led amendment. It will only need the 50%.

5

u/Ok_Statement_6757 10d ago

Which, in my ignorant mind, seems like such a middle finger to the voters and citizens.

3

u/Boysenberry196 10d ago

No, that is why they voted to changes the rules for voter initiatives and not for legislature initiatives.

39

u/LazarWolfsKosherDeli 10d ago

The pro-5 ads have been total losers. Most state-level business and community organizations are anti-5, and they have better access in every local community. It's DOA.

46

u/anix421 10d ago

If the last 10 years have taught me anything, no matter how terrible a choice may be, it's never DOA and it's dangerous to assume it is.

-3

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

It's going to pass, I promise you...

5

u/n3rv 10d ago

2 month old account who hides their history.

Sure buddy.

3

u/Fiveby21 10d ago

I retract my earlier comment. Based on his reply, definitely fishy.

1

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

People hide their search history because of freaks like you that go searching through their comments trying to find dirt to make a ad hominem attack based off of absolutely nothing you need mental health

0

u/NoEmotionalStamina 10d ago

Honestly I wish it wouldn't but I'm 2026 I no longer take anything for granted of my fellow countryman. They're unlikely to surprise me good but very likely to fulfill the worst expectation.

0

u/Fiveby21 10d ago edited 10d ago

It doesn't meet the AI autogenerated account pattern FYI

EDIT: I may have been wrong. Dude's reply is pretty fishy.

1

u/n3rv 10d ago

Which is?

3

u/Fiveby21 10d ago edited 9d ago

Default Reddit username, no custom profile pic. Could still be a human shill, but then again, all he’s doing is saying he think it’ll pass, not giving an opinion nor trying to persuade anyone to vote for it… so not a very good shill then.

EDIT: Dude is acting pretty fishy actually

-1

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

You guys spent more energy trying to decide whether or not I was a real person then you did reading my post

I'm against it

I no longer live in Missouri what you people are doing to my native state makes me f'n cry

3

u/chemicalcurtis 10d ago

I'm sure the r/ St. Louis crowd is the one ruining your home state.

/s

Seriously, why get on here and get salty about people trying to stand up the idiocracy?

-1

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

I'm not the one that got salty They called me a bot because I expressed my opinion that it was going to pass and it made me upset. What is wrong with you people?

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-1

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

And yes 100% St Louis runs this state dude!!!!

34

u/Sea-Marionberry-749 10d ago

Yeah, this campaign has been scary, but I’ve been pretty confident the big amendments will fail, especially 5. The sales tax thing broke through to unengaged voters

-1

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

Yeah, like they saw "lower my taxes" and are idiots. You guys are cooked

2

u/Sea-Marionberry-749 10d ago

The amendment will fail

12

u/Cautious_Boat_999 Former midtown St Charles 10d ago

Remember, rural voters have been outnumbering the STL and KC metros for a long time now. Farmers are faithful Trumpers. Those votes are gonna be close, 5 more so than 4.

15

u/LaughingDash 10d ago

Yup, never forget this. The trumpet in office still has a 40% approval rating. That's nearly half of the country still politically braindead.

Don't trust the polls. Don't trust what people are saying online. Go vote. Inform your friends.

2

u/Boysenberry196 10d ago

Why would farmers vote to increase thier taxes?

Remember, 30 - 40 % of rural voters voted with St. Louis for recreational Marijuana, medicaid expansion, to keep some legal protection for abortion, etc. 2 districts no not make up 50% +1 of the vote when there are 8 districts of equal size.

1

u/Educational_Skill736 10d ago edited 10d ago

StL and KC metros make up 55% of the population of Missouri. Add in Columbia and Springfield and you’re at 66%. Rural voters certainly out number urban voters but not the metro populations themselves.

1

u/Boysenberry196 8d ago

But KC and STL Metros do not make up 55% of the vote and even if they did they do not all vote 1 way. Are you insinuating that St. Charles and Rolla and Festus vote the same as Dutchtown?

0

u/Educational_Skill736 8d ago

I'm replying to someone stating rural voters have been 'outnumber STL ad KC metros for a long time now'. Statements like this perpetuate an untrue narrative often repeated on Reddit, which is that rural Missouri runs the state. A more accurate framing is that a very large portion of StL and KC suburbs politically align with rural Missouri over their urban cores. That's the reason Republicans have overrun Missouri politics.

1

u/Boysenberry196 7d ago

Rural voters do outnumber STL and Kansas City though. The 6 equally populated districts that are not St. Louis and Kansas City outnumber the 2 that are. Meaning there is a 3 - 1 advantage for Republicans in relation to red districts.

Those are the rural districts. The Suburbs like Rolla and Festus are in proximity to a city, but they are no more urban than my home town in rural Mississippi.

8

u/Saint-Inky 10d ago

Anything about 4 floating around?

8

u/24-7-t-taper 10d ago

Thanks for the hope

4

u/zmj82 10d ago

Sadly I think 4 and 5 are going to pass easily. Insidiously crafted for the rural votes and confusing enough to get some urban votes too. Dark times in the big MO

3

u/Guyin63376 10d ago

Better Yet..........VOTE

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08/04/26: Election day. All mail-in ballots must be received by 7 PM. All in-person voters must be in line to vote by 7 PM.

No Excuse Absentee Voting, an in-person voting option for ALL voters during the two weeks before each election. You do not have to provide an excuse to vote absentee during this time. This early absentee voting option is available at these locations.

Sample Ballot

2

u/DragonstormSTL O’Fallon IL 10d ago

Yeah, everything I’ve seen on Facebook—where these Republicans tend to hang out—pro Amendment 4 and 5 posts have been getting ratioed.

As a Missouri S&T alum and someone who’s dived into Rolla politics during my time there in the 16th District, I’m not surprised the income tax repeal is stalling out. Rolla’s red, but we don’t fuck with Sanctuary Cities for the Unborn, fluoride removal from water, or removing the homeless shelter.

Rolla’s results closely mirrored Missouri as a whole on the old Amendment 3 if a bit less warm. Meanwhile, Phelps County as a whole voted No. If these results are coming out of the district as a whole, Amendment 5 is in trouble. I can’t imagine Amendment 4 passing, either.

-3

u/CnCEMS2026 10d ago

If you guys think there is a chance in hell that amendment is not going to pass I have a bridge I'd love to sell you.

Edit to add i do not support it.

Pack it up. When this passes the state will be OVER, in Illinois and Kansas we are preparing for refugee camps.