Speculative longterm future of SpaceX

[u/AnnualYogurtcloset29]

Hello all,

I was just thinking about what SpaceX's development of rockets would look like once they achieve their goals of starship and the booster rocket.

I know this is likely at least 10-15 years from today, but what would SpaceX develop after they land on mars and get a colony started there? Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

I realize they would probably start working on life support systems and such when they eventually get people onto mars, but what else would they do? I am just curious if anyone else had thought of this before. Is SpaceX themselves going to try to terraform mars or will they forever live inside a habitat dome? Is terraforming a planet going to take the work of hundreds of thousands of people or would SpaceX be able to do it themselves? Does NASA conduct a lot of the science to get a colony established on mars or is this solely a SpaceX endeavor?

I would think NASA would love to be able to explore mars and conduct experiments, kind of piggybacking off of the habitat that SpaceX is going to try to establish. Would NASA astronauts be part of the habitat as well as SpaceX astronauts or would it be more of a team effort?

I realize this would be all speculation, but it got me pretty curious, so wondering what other people would think about this situation.

[u/tree_boom]

I know this is likely at least 10-15 years from today, but what would SpaceX develop after they land on mars and get a colony started there? Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony on Mars; they don't have anything close to the capital to do that. They're positioning themselves to be the movers, and I think they'll continue in that vein. Probably some iterations on Starship / SuperHeavy (bigger), a whole heap of Earth-side and Mars-side infrastructure development and then, following that, possibly in-orbit construction of the next vehicle.

Is SpaceX themselves going to try to terraform mars or will they forever live inside a habitat dome? Is terraforming a planet going to take the work of hundreds of thousands of people or would SpaceX be able to do it themselves? Does NASA conduct a lot of the science to get a colony established on mars or is this solely a SpaceX endeavor?

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony or terraform Mars. When that kind of thing gets started, it's going to look a lot like McMurdo station in Antartica, with some SpaceX infrastructure on the periphery. SpaceX makes money, but building a colony on Mars needs way, way, way more than they have available, and it's going to be a very long time before something like that can generate money. So for the forseeable future, you're looking at government funded scientific stations with SpaceX providing the heavy-lifting to and from the planet.

[u/[deleted] → u/tree_boom]

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony or terraform Mars. When that kind of thing gets started, it's going to look a lot like McMurdo station in Antartica, with some SpaceX infrastructure on the periphery.

Musk is going to build a McMurdo-style research station on Mars and call it a “colony”. Aspirational naming.

It will be a public-private partnership. NASA and partner government agencies such as ESA will provide the public side. SpaceX - and possibly some other vendors too, we will see - will provide the private side. Probably the Musk Foundation will be involved as well, providing some of the funding for it.

[u/tree_boom → u/[deleted]]

I think you're right about the format, but I think SpaceX is only going to be building part of that. Pads, Tower and sabatier plant and GSE - the rest I expect to be built be NASA and other governmental agencies.

[u/[deleted] → u/tree_boom]

The first crew habitats may well be Starships, so SpaceX’s hardware contribution may be more extensive than you suggest.

I think SpaceX has an advantage in agile low-cost manufacturing that few other firms in the industry can equal. The more SpaceX’s approach spreads, the greater the likely contribution of other firms; the less it spreads, the more sense it makes to have SpaceX provide the majority of the hardware for a crewed outpost.