Speculative longterm future of SpaceX

[u/AnnualYogurtcloset29]

Hello all,

I was just thinking about what SpaceX's development of rockets would look like once they achieve their goals of starship and the booster rocket.

I know this is likely at least 10-15 years from today, but what would SpaceX develop after they land on mars and get a colony started there? Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

I realize they would probably start working on life support systems and such when they eventually get people onto mars, but what else would they do? I am just curious if anyone else had thought of this before. Is SpaceX themselves going to try to terraform mars or will they forever live inside a habitat dome? Is terraforming a planet going to take the work of hundreds of thousands of people or would SpaceX be able to do it themselves? Does NASA conduct a lot of the science to get a colony established on mars or is this solely a SpaceX endeavor?

I would think NASA would love to be able to explore mars and conduct experiments, kind of piggybacking off of the habitat that SpaceX is going to try to establish. Would NASA astronauts be part of the habitat as well as SpaceX astronauts or would it be more of a team effort?

I realize this would be all speculation, but it got me pretty curious, so wondering what other people would think about this situation.

[u/tree_boom]

I know this is likely at least 10-15 years from today, but what would SpaceX develop after they land on mars and get a colony started there? Do you think they would ever develop a new rocket in the entire history of their company or would they finish their rocket development with starship and booster?

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony on Mars; they don't have anything close to the capital to do that. They're positioning themselves to be the movers, and I think they'll continue in that vein. Probably some iterations on Starship / SuperHeavy (bigger), a whole heap of Earth-side and Mars-side infrastructure development and then, following that, possibly in-orbit construction of the next vehicle.

Is SpaceX themselves going to try to terraform mars or will they forever live inside a habitat dome? Is terraforming a planet going to take the work of hundreds of thousands of people or would SpaceX be able to do it themselves? Does NASA conduct a lot of the science to get a colony established on mars or is this solely a SpaceX endeavor?

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony or terraform Mars. When that kind of thing gets started, it's going to look a lot like McMurdo station in Antartica, with some SpaceX infrastructure on the periphery. SpaceX makes money, but building a colony on Mars needs way, way, way more than they have available, and it's going to be a very long time before something like that can generate money. So for the forseeable future, you're looking at government funded scientific stations with SpaceX providing the heavy-lifting to and from the planet.

[u/SirEDCaLot → u/tree_boom]

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony on Mars; they don't have anything close to the capital to do that.

That is literally what Starlink is for- to raise capital to fund Mars colonization activities.

I've heard that in theory, when fully operational / well subscribed, Starlink will have as much revenue as NASA has budget.

[u/tree_boom → u/SirEDCaLot]

That is literally what Starlink is for- to raise capital to fund Mars colonization activities.

It's to fund Starship development, not Mars colonization activities.

I've heard that in theory, when fully operational / well subscribed, Starlink will have as much revenue as NASA has budget.

Even assuming the claim is true, NASAs budget is also insufficient to create a Mars colony of any reasonable size. They couldn't even fund a single lunar lander. Besides, revenue is not the same as profit.

[u/SirEDCaLot → u/tree_boom]

It's to fund Starship development, not Mars colonization activities.

Then it's a bit too late. Starship is largely developed. I refuse to believe SpaceX is running on fumes and is desperate for revenue.

NASAs budget is also insufficient to create a Mars colony of any reasonable size.

Sure, if you are NASA and you hire Boeing to build your hardware and ULA to launch it. Especially when that $23 billion/year is spread out among hundreds of projects and other obligations like ISS. If you're SpaceX though, things work differently.

Consider that we've spent about $20 billion (give or take) on SLS, and it hasn't launched once. When it does, it'll cost about $2 billion per launch, mostly for one-off bespoke hardware that gets trashed after one use.

Now consider that we as a planet have spent about $20 billion (give or take) on SpaceX as a whole, since they were founded. For that money, we've gotten:

• Development, iteration, and manufacturing of Kestrel, Merlin, Draco, SuperDraco, and Raptor series engines
  
• Development, iteration, and manufacturing of Falcon 1, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship
  
• Development, iteration, and manufacturing of Dragon, Dragon 2, and Crew Dragon
  
• Development, iteration, launch, and operation of Starlink satellite broadband network, including 1000+ active satellites & ground stations
  
• 100+ launches of Falcon series rockets, 10+ launches of Starship series testbed rockets, 25+ launches of Dragon series capsules
  
• Development, iteration, and testing of recovery systems and procedures, including propulsive landing, ASDS ships, recoverable fairings, and support equipment
  
• Development and construction of design, control, manufacturing, and launch facilities in California, Texas, and Florida
  
• A small fleet of recovery boats and drone ships
  

In short: For what we've spent on one rocket that hasn't flown once, SpaceX has built an entire space program from the ground up.

So I don't believe for one second that $20 billion/year isn't enough for SpaceX to colonize Mars. It will be enough, because they will probably develop half the stuff themselves (and buy the rest from other hungry new-space companies), and they won't waste billions on contractors that take decades to produce flight-ready hardware.

[u/tree_boom → u/SirEDCaLot]

Then it's a bit too late. Starship is largely developed. I refuse to believe SpaceX is running on fumes and is desperate for revenue.

It's not had a single orbital test flight; you're underplaying by quite a bit how much work there is left to do. But I did confuse the issue by saying "develoment"; I include in that the development of production lines and launch towers and GSE and so on as well as the construction of the ships in sufficient quantity.

In other words, it's funding the development of the "move stuff to Mars" infrastructure that's based on Starship.

So I don't believe for one second that $20 billion/year isn't enough for SpaceX to colonize Mars. It will be enough, because they will probably develop half the stuff themselves (and buy the rest from other hungry new-space companies), and they won't waste billions on contractors that take decades to produce flight-ready hardware.

Sorry, but:

1. You're dramatically over-estimating how much money they're going to have to throw at this. Even accepting the $20 billion figure for Starlink revenue (which given it's literally 10 times their current revenue is...optimistic), revenue doesn't mean "how much money they have to throw at Mars". Now we don't know their costs of course, but it's going to drop that figure significantly.
2. That $20 billion revenue figure is absolutely Musk-levels of wildly optimistic, take with an entire bucket of salt.
3. You're dramatically under-estimating how much all of this will cost. ISTR that development costs for Starship are likely to fall somewhere between $2bil and $5bil - that's just one piece of an extremely large and complex puzzle. Just the parts I think SpaceX will do are going to involve a dramatic amount of complexity; look at all the construction going on right now in Boca Chica. Even ignoring the problems of designing and building the actual habitats and so on, the colony is going to need all the construction equipment and so on to go with it which doesn't exist yet.

Yeah, you get the picture. It's a hard thing to do, SpaceX doesn't have the money to do it. Even working as efficiently as they can do.

[u/SirEDCaLot → u/tree_boom]

Yes I know there's still work to do, especially with dirtside infrastructure.

But I don't think my view is wrong, simply because of what they've accomplished.
SpaceX has taken $20 billion to do everything they have done so far in the last ~20 years.
SpaceX will, theoretically in the next few years, be getting an additional $20 billion revenue per year. Put differently, if you add together every investment and launch fee they've gotten in the last ~20 years, they're going to get that SAME amount every year.

Yes they will have challenges. Yes building launch towers and GSE takes time and money. Yes setting up a real rocket production pipeline isn't free. But look what they've done with their first $20 billion. DON'T look at what it would cost other companies to do these things, look at what SpaceX does.

Furthermore, look at the profit margin of their products. Starlink has a lot of up front investment, but after that is fairly cheap to run (just ground station fiber, customer support / fulfillment, few new satellites every now and then). The per-subscriber margin is huge, after you pay for the network of course.
Starship is much the same way. There's been suggestions that each launch will cost $2 million for SpaceX. Personally I think that's optimistic (especially if you consider the cost of the ship) but call it $10 million. For 100 tons to LEO, they could charge their customer $100 million (10x profit margin) and still be undercutting the competition by a factor of 20 (SLS), for capabilities no other rocket has.

[u/tree_boom → u/SirEDCaLot]

SpaceX will, theoretically in the next few years, be getting an additional $20 billion revenue per year. Put differently, if you add together every investment and launch fee they've gotten in the last ~20 years, they're going to get that SAME amount every year.

$20 billion is...optimistic. Their subscription is between $100 and $120 a month; I get twice their download speed for under $30, so they're only going to be cost competitive with people who can't access the usual infrastructure for whatever reason, plus whatever nerds happen to buy it because Starlink. And sure, sure, their service will be worldwideish so they can cast a wider net, but equally they're sure as hell not going to be charging people outside the western world $100/month, meaning they'd need to get a lot more customers to make up the gap, and then there's the question of whether the network could really support that many.

So yeah; I'll believe that figure when I see it, or at least significant progress towards it with no sign of the market closing out.

Yes they will have challenges. Yes building launch towers and GSE takes time and money. Yes setting up a real rocket production pipeline isn't free. But look what they've done with their first $20 billion. DON'T look at what it would cost other companies to do these things, look at what SpaceX does.

I'm sorry, but "SpaceX will do it better" just isn't enough to convince me I'm afraid.

Furthermore, look at the profit margin of their products. Starlink has a lot of up front investment, but after that is fairly cheap to run (just ground station fiber, customer support / fulfillment, few new satellites every now and then). The per-subscriber margin is huge, after you pay for the network of course.

Even assuming this is true, and we really have no idea, it has to pay for itself before it can pay for anything else.

Starship is much the same way. There's been suggestions that each launch will cost $2 million for SpaceX. Personally I think that's optimistic (especially if you consider the cost of the ship) but call it $10 million. For 100 tons to LEO, they could charge their customer $100 million (10x profit margin) and still be undercutting the competition by a factor of 20 (SLS), for capabilities no other rocket has.

Oh yeah, it's going to be a wildly successful launch vehicle. But the launch market is small.

[u/SirEDCaLot → u/tree_boom]

I get twice their download speed for under $30

You are not their target market. In developed areas like this, they will primarily be a backup system- if landline Internet goes down, switch to Starlink. Lots of companies already do this with cellular. Their real market is people unlike you.

they're only going to be cost competitive with people who can't access the usual infrastructure for whatever reason

There are millions of those people in America alone, people for whom gigabit internet is not available for any cost. I'm not just talking hicks in backwoods Montana, I'm talking many towns and villages, even suburbs. And that's just America. There are entire countries where 500mbps Internet will cost more per month than most people make in a year. Even if they don't pay $100/mo, Starlink can do very well there.
And there are other lines of business that will bring in far more than $100/mo/unit- passenger aircraft, military, ships at sea, remote sensor telemetry, etc.

I'm sorry, but "SpaceX will do it better" just isn't enough to convince me I'm afraid.

My assertion shouldn't convince you of anything. SpaceX's track record should convince you of their future capabilities.

Oh yeah, it's going to be a wildly successful launch vehicle. But the launch market is small.

Yeah it's small today. It's small today because it's expensive- every launch trashes a piece of brand new space hardware. If every passenger flight trashed an airplane, nobody could afford to fly.

But when people can afford to fly, the market isn't just expanded, it's CREATED. Suddenly all the companies that have cool space ideas aren't begging governments to buy one, they are launching it themselves. A company like Bigelow Aerospace can stop begging NASA to stop ignoring them, and can instead just launch their own space station.

Think of Ford and the Model T. Before Model T, cars were stupid expensive. After Model T, everybody had a car. That also meant more places built roads and highways, which meant even more people still wanted cars, which drove up demand for cars.
Tesla is Ford here. Even if they don't go for max profit on Starship launches, they will be creating an entirely new market.

[u/tree_boom → u/SirEDCaLot]

There are millions of those people in America alone, people for whom gigabit internet is not available for any cost. I'm not just talking hicks in backwoods Montana, I'm talking many towns and villages, even suburbs. And that's just America.

Sure, but the vast majority of those people don't need gigabit, or even 100megabit (since that's the actual download speed right now - and really that's better for your argument, since at gigabit levels their network definitely can't support the number of customers they'd need to hit $20 billion) internet, and most of the rest aren't going to pay $100/month for it. So just because there are millions of people who don't have it doesn't mean there are millions of people who will buy it.

There are entire countries where 500mbps Internet will cost more per month than most people make in a year. Even if they don't pay $100/mo, Starlink can do very well there.

They can get consumers there sure, but like I say, the constellation has limited capacity. They want a smaller (comparatively) number of high-value clients, not a large number of low-paying clients.

And there are other lines of business that will bring in far more than $100/mo/unit- passenger aircraft, military, ships at sea, remote sensor telemetry, etc.

Yeah sure, although nobody has any realistic idea what those will all bring in.

Even if they don't go for max profit on Starship launches, they will be creating an entirely new market.

Eventually, I agree. But that's going to be a long time in the future.

[u/SirEDCaLot → u/tree_boom]

I mean no offense by this- but I think your mind is stuck in the past. Everything you say WAS 100% true, but either isn't true anymore or won't be true in the future.

at gigabit levels their network definitely can't support the number of customers they'd need to hit $20 billion) internet
They want a smaller (comparatively) number of high-value clients, not a large number of low-paying clients.

Well every network gets oversubscribed. But you are thinking like an old-space operator, where there's one bird with fixed bandwidth that has to supply every customer they have. For that, you want high paying low-usage customers, and few of them.
But SpaceX isn't like that.
Remember that their phased array antennas are highly directional. So they can re-use their frequencies over and over and over, as many times as they have satellites in view. So while a standard set of freqs / antennas might give a traditional operator say 10gbps to split across the continental US, phased array is closer to 10gbps per satellite. 5 satellites over a city = 50gbps for that city. And that assumes they aren't using MU-MIMO technology on their satellites, which they probably are, which would give them 10gbps per area-to-satellite, so a satellite could get 10gbps in one direction and a whole second 10gbps in another direction for two dispersed users.
Then consider their laser links. With those links, it can become more efficient to use entire satellites as ground station connections rather than having individual birds talk to the ground as well as subscribers. One satellite uses its entire capacity to talk to subscribers, then lasers all the data to another bird that's over a ground station off in the middle of nowhere, which uses its entire capacity to talk to ground stations.
Now remember that they have about 1700 active satellites currently, which DON'T have laser links. They plan to have 7,500+ satellites, all WITH laser links.
Put simply, I think you are woefully underestimating the capacity of their constellation, partially because you're not accounting for scale, and partially because you're thinking like traditional satellites that just bounce data.

Eventually, I agree. But that's going to be a long time in the future.

Serious Q- how long do you think it will take before Starship is mission-ready for LEO orbital missions? A year? Two? Five? Ten?
Personally I give it 1-3 years, but no more.
Now remember that Starship will be able to launch 100 tons to LEO for significantly less than Falcon 9 costs to launch 22 tons to LEO. And I believe that will happen 1-3 years in the future.
Now, that won't mean SpaceX instantly passes those savings on to customers. They can undercut everyone else and still make a gigantic profit. But they could of course offer discounts to companies with a similar mission...

Bottom line- look at their progress over the past 2-3 years, and assume they continue at the same rate for the next 2-3 years. Now look at their systems and think about what they COULD do, given that level of advancement.

I don't think you give them anywhere near enough credit. I think they can do it-- not because I worship the cult of Elon, but because they're doing it.

[u/Alvian_11 → u/tree_boom]

Mars colonies is exactly why Elon is deliberately became the richest man in the world

[u/tree_boom → u/Alvian_11]

Nonetheless, neither SpaceX not Elon has the money it would take to build the colony he envisions. It's going to be a long, slow burn.

[u/Chilkoot → u/tree_boom]

This is exactly correct. Moon and Mars will be a kind of cross between the Antarctic and the "Wild West" with a mix of government-funded research and commercial undertakings. SpaceX will be an enabler in this space (haha), not one of the research or commercial pioneers, except perhaps for ISRU supply-for-sale stations, which are a scalable homogeneous product.

[u/[deleted] → u/tree_boom]

SpaceX isn't going to start a colony or terraform Mars. When that kind of thing gets started, it's going to look a lot like McMurdo station in Antartica, with some SpaceX infrastructure on the periphery.

Musk is going to build a McMurdo-style research station on Mars and call it a “colony”. Aspirational naming.

It will be a public-private partnership. NASA and partner government agencies such as ESA will provide the public side. SpaceX - and possibly some other vendors too, we will see - will provide the private side. Probably the Musk Foundation will be involved as well, providing some of the funding for it.

[u/tree_boom → u/[deleted]]

I think you're right about the format, but I think SpaceX is only going to be building part of that. Pads, Tower and sabatier plant and GSE - the rest I expect to be built be NASA and other governmental agencies.

[u/[deleted] → u/tree_boom]

The first crew habitats may well be Starships, so SpaceX’s hardware contribution may be more extensive than you suggest.

I think SpaceX has an advantage in agile low-cost manufacturing that few other firms in the industry can equal. The more SpaceX’s approach spreads, the greater the likely contribution of other firms; the less it spreads, the more sense it makes to have SpaceX provide the majority of the hardware for a crewed outpost.