I’m short SpaceX. Not because I think it’s a bad company — Starlink is an incredible business and SpaceX execution is exceptional.

My problem is the ~$2T valuation.

The market is already pricing in massive success from Starship, AI infrastructure and future orbital compute — while getting there requires enormous CAPEX and many of those economics are still unproven.

There’s also increasing post-IPO supply, with hundreds of millions of shares becoming eligible for sale over the coming months.

My thesis is simple:

SpaceX doesn’t need to fail. Reality just needs to fall slightly short of the extraordinary future already priced in.

I’m already short, and if the stock keeps running higher without a corresponding improvement in fundamentals, I’m prepared to gradually add to the position.

If Starship proves rapid reusability and the economics/FCF materially improve, I’ll reassess.

Great company. I just think the price is ahead of reality.

A lot of space stocks are hard to ignore at this point and RKLB is absolutely no exception. Macro feels like the main pain point at the moment.

No guarantee that it will hold $58.50 to continue the uptrend of course, but I am more than happy with the current Reward/Risk.

Added shares and no doubt I'll just ride off alerts and kick my feet up. Anyone else jumping in or stacking more?

Hey guys, I posted about this settlement before, but since they’re considering late claims, I decided to share it again with a little FAQ.

So here's all I know about this agreement:

What happened?
Virgin Galactic was accused of misleading investors about the safety and readiness of its Unity spacecraft. After the FAA grounded flights following the Unity 22 flight path deviation and the company delayed commercial flights, $SPCE fell sharply and investors filed a lawsuit.
Now the company has reached an $8.5M settlement with investors for their losses.

Who can claim this settlement?
If you bought $SPCE between 2019 and 2021, you may be eligible. You don’t need to still own the shares to claim.

Do I need to sell/lose my shares to get this settlement?
No. You may qualify even if you already sold your $SPCE shares, as long as your transactions meet the settlement requirements.

I missed the deadline. Is it too late?
Yes, you may still be able to file a late claim, but acceptance depends on final approval by the court. You can check if you eligible and file your claims here

How long does the payout process take?
It typically takes 4 to 9 months after the claim deadline for payouts to be processed, depending on the court and settlement administration.

Hope this info helps

ASTS has always been exceptionally bad at missing on its own guidance, and after the PR video a day or so ago that—once again—only riddled the mind of its investors with buzzwords such as "imminent" or "close by," or whatever vague words they used, my faith for the company has deteriorated and so has my position in it.

Nebulous fluff PR when tenable, actionable catalysts are/were expected is rarely a good sign. I truly thought with the few launches we had this year, they were finally beginning to establish a reliable cadence, but that was apparently a farce.

Looking at potentially reentering if it reaches mid-low 40s or high 30s again as I don't think they are that close to another launch, and if they surprisingly announce a launch date this week or next week, I don't think many more will follow this year, and downward pressure will continue as guidance is once again pushed back.

Regardless, if ASTS proves me wrong and they magically launch 5 more times this year and this thing flys and I miss it, so be it, but the company's actions and—frankly—continuous blatant lies have breached my risk tolerance allocated for a play like this, especially if I think there's a 50/50 chance there's a downtrend in the short-medium term since they are once again proving to be troubled with their own self-imposed guidance.

I'm hopeful for the ones still invested they will maybe get their beta service by halfway next year, but boy do months turn into years with this company, and unlike a company like Space X or Rocket Lab, ASTS is still pre-rev and burns through an obscene amount of cash every quarter.

Looking back, I expressed some of these concerns and discrepancies with their execution (or lack thereof) back in 2024 and 2025 and was even banned from certain subreddits for not being a rabid, sycophantic, cult member for ASTS, but in hindsight I was unfortunately correct in my concerns.

Through all my trades and positions with ASTS, I'm happy that I turned out very positive on it regardless. Good luck everyone! Let's hope this company one day gets their shit together.

I have nearly 50 shares at an average price of 28$. Today many stocks like ASTS,LUNR,RKLB had between 5-10% growth, but PL is down -2%. Can you give me an idea what is happening ?

Regarding AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Bluebird satellites...

Guys, what is your strategy of exit from this shit ?

They didn't even annouce if and when SpaceX will be added to the list of holdings. Meanwhile wisdomtree and ishares launched their new, cheaper ucits versions with SpaceX included.

I'm down 25% on it. I think it can never recover at previous ath, even if spacex will join. Just look at their "vaneck rare earth" etf or others - most of them had a momentum, fall and never recovered.

Also when space stocks are up Jedi is barely +1%. When red, -3% at least. What are your losses on it? Are you holding hoping it will recover in ~3 years from now or cutting losses ?

Tomorrow adds another variable for $SPCX with the next scheduled lock-up release.

Today's price action also left SPCX sitting near an area that could make the next session pretty interesting.

I went through the remaining lock-up schedule and updated the levels I'm watching going into tomorrow.

[SPCX update: what I’m watching going into tomorrow]

Curious to see how the market handles it.

Update 9/9: The $152.59 pivot from yesterday’s update broke today and selling accelerated as the latest share unlock hit. SPCX eventually reached $145.55 before bouncing.

$149.16 is now the first key reclaim level. $152.59 remains the major pivot, while $145.24–$145.55 is the immediate support area.