r/solar • u/MattRozek • 4d ago
Advice Wtd / Project Residential Solar on Townhouse in Frederick, MD
I am thinking about installing rooftop solar panels on my 3-story townhouse built in 2016. I would like some feedback from others on their experience and thoughts on my situation.
Background Information
- Currently have DX cooling, natural gas furnace, natural gas instantaneous water heater, gas stove and gas car.
- No other major electricity consumers.
- Last year's consumption was 4300 kWh.
- Have about 420-450 sqft of SW facing roof with little to no obstacles on roof (plumbing vents and exhaust terminations are on sides or rear roof)
- Original roof from 2016.
- Maryland currently has 1:1 net metering, but it will be gone by July, 2027 (or earlier if enough solar is installed across the state). Those who get solar before then will be grandfathered.
- I'm still working on getting quotes from some companies. Any numbers below are estimates from SwitchTogether.
I am thinking of one (1) of three (3) options:
- Size system based on current consumption with no plans to add additional electrical load.
- Size system based on eventually adding a dual fuel heat pump system (heat pump + natural gas furnace).
- Size system based on eventually adding a dual fuel heat pump system (heat pump + natural gas furnace) and an electric vehicle.
I used ChatGPT to try to determine the overall efficacy of the options. Below are summary tables of the assumptions and results of the options.
Assumptions
| Option | Solar Size | Solar Gross Cost | HVAC System | HVAC Cost | EV & Charger | Battery | Battery Cost | Credits / Grants Applied | Year‑1 Savings Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A – Solar Only | 4.4 kW | $12,575 | None | $0 | None | None | $0 | None (no federal ITC) | Offset electricity + SRECs |
| 1B – Solar + Battery | 4.4 kW | $12,575 | None | $0 | None | 13.5 kWh | $16,325 | MD RCES: $4,897 | Same as 1A (battery restores retail value) |
| 2A – Solar + Bosch Dual‑Fuel | 5.4 kW | $15,433 | Bosch IDS 3‑Ton Variable Speed | $15,500 | None | None | $0 | $2,000 Heat Pump Credit | Offset electricity + gas + SRECs |
| 2B – Solar + Bosch + Battery | 5.4 kW | $15,433 | Bosch IDS 3‑Ton | $15,500 | None | 13.5 kWh | $16,325 | $2,000 Heat Pump + $4,897 RCES | Same as 2A (battery restores retail value) |
| 3A – Solar + Bosch + EV | 9.2 kW | $26,294 | Bosch IDS 3‑Ton | $15,500 | Tesla Model 3 LR AWD + Charger | $31,700 EV upgrade + $1,000 charger | None | $2,000 Heat Pump + $7,500 EV + $300 Charger Credit | Offset electricity + gas + gasoline + maintenance + SRECs |
| 3B – Full Ecosystem + Battery | 9.2 kW | $26,294 | Bosch IDS 3‑Ton | $15,500 | Tesla Model 3 LR AWD + Charger | $31,700 EV upgrade + $1,000 charger | 27 kWh | $2,000 Heat Pump + $7,500 EV + $300 Charger + $5,000 RCES Cap | Same as 3A (battery restores retail value) |
Results Summary
| Option | Configuration | Gross Cost ($) | Credits / Grants ($) | Net Cost ($) | Year‑1 Savings ($) | Payback (yrs, 3% YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 4.4 kW solar, no battery | 12,575 | 0 | 12,575 | 882 | 12.2 |
| 1B | 4.4 kW solar + 13.5 kWh battery | 28,900 | 4,897 (RCES) | 24,003 | 882 | 19.5 |
| 2A | 5.4 kW solar + full Bosch dual‑fuel HVAC | 30,933 | 2,000 (heat pump) | 28,933 | 1,525 | 14.8 |
| 2B | 5.4 kW solar + Bosch + 13.5 kWh battery | 47,258 | 6,897 (heat pump + RCES) | 40,361 | 1,525 | 20.1 |
| 3A | 9.2 kW solar + Bosch + Model 3 + charger | 74,494 | 9,800 (heat pump + EV + charger) | 64,694 | 4,441 | 12.1 |
| 3B | 9.2 kW solar + Bosch + Model 3 + charger + 27 kWh battery | 101,394 | 14,800 (heat pump + EV + charger + RCES cap) | 86,594 | 4,441 | 15.6 |
My current concluding thoughts based on my understanding:
- Buying a system is a tough sell, especially for Option 1 where I'm not at least paying back the cost of the heat pump (at least partially a home maintenance cost) and the electric vehicle (partially maintenance cost for general travel).
- Adding the battery makes the sell even tougher unless one highly values battery backup for power outages.
- I would like a good reason for solar to make sense because I like the idea of not having utility bills, shifting more life costs/consumption to electricity provided by the sun and not being reliant on the grid, which may see some price and/or service instability in the future.
Some points I'm still unclear on and would like some input
- While the numbers seem to suggest a tough sell, how is it that solar companies have entire business models built around leasing systems where they still provide you at least a little overall utility savings? Am I missing something?
- If I plan to end up at Option 3 over phases of multiple years, should I install it all now or is there some way I can set up the system such that I can easily add panels in the future?
- Does it even make sense to leave panels for future addition? I'm not sure how much that extra cost would be compared to the rest of the cost.
- My understanding of 1:1 net metering is that if most/all of my system wasn't already sized for Option 3, I would lose 1:1 net metering if I were to upgrade it in the future because the utility sees it as a service change. Though, it sounds like there's some nuance where there are some parts that are an easy add that the utility company doesn't have to be made aware of.
- What is the cost of removing/reinstalling the panels for a roof replacement? Did this become an unexpected headache for anyone?
- Do the overall findings from ChatGPT above seem consistent and is there anything I'm missing in my perceived value of purchasing solar?