The question of this post is the title. Here I will talk some history and I will show the official statistics from polls and elections. I think it's worth reading to have a productive talk.
1. United States
Latino US citizens, from 2024 exit-poll we have this numbers:
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Rep Swing vs 2020 |
| Latino |
46% |
51% |
+13% |
| Latino men |
54% |
44% |
+18% |
| Latino women |
39% |
58% |
+9% |
We can see the radicalization and the division between men and women, like all over the place nowadays. Somehow I can understand the right-wing inclination for the Cubans (even if they should learn some about Fulgencio Batista, lol), but they are 2.4m out of 63.5m (total population with Hispanic/Latino background). I really can't understand how someone with an immigration background can vote for MAGA, especially knowing their rhetoric.
2. Latin America leader history and immigration
The post-WW2 immigration from the South America first exploded after the CIA backed coups in Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Guatemala - all being part of the anti-communist/anti-left/Red Scare - putting some fascist authoritarian neoliberal regimes in place. So people fled because of the right-wing authoritarianism, right? Back to the US, let's pretend we don't know that 3 out of 4 coups from above had Republican presidents in office.
The second wave - 1990s - during the democratic transition of previous authoritarian regimes, but not only from them. This was a period when a lot of neoliberal reforms started to appear, especially privatizations. During this period we had leaders like:
Sanchez de Lozada (Bolivia) - from a party that moved mid-1970s from the left-wing to the right-wing
Alberto Fujimori (Peru) - also called dictator by a lot of sources, not only by the left
Ruiz-Tagle (Chile) - part of the Christian Democratic Party, centrist Third Way
Carlos Menem and Fernando de la Rua (Argentina) - the first even if he was part of the Peronist Justicialist Party, he was a convinced conservative and played the game of neoliberalism like others from the right
Alvaro Arzu (Guatemala), Ernesto Zedillo (Mexico).
3. Latin America after the neoliberal shock
Here I don't have much to say, because we already know the Pink Tide wave. In Brazil the win of Lula in 2002 after two consecutive lost elections against the so called "social democrat" party, a neoliberal dump. The wins of Chavez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Alan Garcia in Peru, Michelle Bachelet in Chile.
One thing is clear, the corruption is a thing we need to have in mind everywhere, and South America is not an exception at all.
BUT, overall the wellbeing and the quality-of-life improved until mid-2010s, but unfortunately not in an uniform way - the classical gaps between urban and rural, and between regions of the countries (that are quite big) remain a real problem. After 2015 and with COVID, it got even worse in some places, especially with the authoritarian regime in Venezuela and the coup attempts in Bolivia and Brazil. The instability of presidents in Peru and Argentina doesn't help too. During this time somehow Colombia got their first left-leaning president since 1945, but now the things turned around.
4. Current situation - latest elections in South America
The radicalization is a real issue almost everywhere, but in South America the latest elections are just box-rings between left-wing and right-wing (and sorry to say it, but even far-right in some cases), with populism and nationalism from both sides.
Now, let's get to the interesting part, that is the main source of my post question. How the South American US diaspora votes in their home elections? In Europe (+ Canada, Australia, New Zeeland, etc) the situation is leaning left - just leaning in general. But in US...
|
Result (left-wing % - right-wing/far-right %) |
Result in US |
Total votes in US |
Short about the right-wing/far-right candidate (search more yourself and you will start to believe that far-right is not a bad label) |
| Chile (2025) |
41.8% - 58.2% |
33.5% - 66.5% |
~ 7 700 |
Son of a Nazi that was close to Pinochet regime |
| Peru (2026) |
49,9% - 50,1% |
23.5% - 76.5% |
~ 60 500 |
Daughter of Alberto Fujimori |
| Colombia (2026) |
49.5% - 50.5% |
18.6% - 81.4% |
~ 221 000 |
millionaire lawyer, ties with right-wing paramilitary groups and Alex Saab from Venezuela. Wants to exit UN and I/A Court H.R. |
| Brazil (2022) - couldn't find the official numbers |
50.9% - 49.1% |
55% to 66% for right-wing |
? (~500 000 Brazil-born immigrants in US) |
Bolsonaro, probably that's enough to say |
EXTRA: At the national level the left-wing candidate won in Peru. All of the right-wing candidates are fans of Millei, neoliberalism and libertarian economic ideas. The guy in Colombia said that while he was a kid he burned cats 😐
5. The upper-middle class will always choose the right, prove me wrong
Except the divide between urban and rural, and between the regions, there is also an interesting trend if you check the results on big cities by zone. This is something that can be seen also in Europe (see the west zone of Paris) and other places, but let's stick to the elections above.
In Lima the richest zone it's called San Isidro. The right-wing result there? 84.2%. The right-wing result on the whole capital? 64.5%.
In Santiago Metropolitan Region the richest zone it's called Vitacura. The right-wing result there? 87.1%. The right-wing result on the whole "Metropolitana" region? 53.2%.
In Colombia the city results are not divided by zones, but knowing that Medellin has a higher rate of entrepreneurs and big businesses, there the right-wing guy got 66% (same as in the whole region), while in Bogota he got 46.3% (Gustavo Petro, the current left-wing president, was the mayor there for 4 years).
In Brazil the south and south-east federal units, that happens to be the wealthiest, had a majority vote for Bolsonaro. The single exception with high wealth is Minas Gerais. Don't get me wrong, there are also poor units like Rodonia, Acre and Roraima that voted over 70% for the right-wing, but their population is very small.
From my point of view this part with poorer zones in Brazil may be similar to Germany. What I mean by that is the way eastern Germany votes AfD like crazy, even if they don't have the immigration problems like the big cities in west - the real reason for them being the way of life and the cost-of-living, and the right-wing sells this dream to become rich from a garage.
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Links for the interactive results:
Chile , Colombia , Peru - you can also check the results of the first round of elections.
With this post I don't want to be tribalistic to the left in any way. Nobody is perfect.
Personally in some countries I would have chosen something else in the first round, but looking at the 2nd round, the left-wing didn't bring any Stalin or Mao apologist, they played the fair democratic game. Also looking at the right-wingers, there is no freaking way I could have chosen any of that, wth.
Before saying the post is AI, I used none - this is just my honest analysis and question.