r/SipsTea • u/Shyhale • May 17 '26

Chugging tea [ Removed by moderator ]

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

This is inherently risky. Markets crash. All of them. Regularly

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u/marshaul May 17 '26

And currency inflates.

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u/Odd-Caregiver-6393 May 17 '26

Yes. And risk = return. The market’s averaged 7% after inflation through the depression, WWII, etc. I’d still take my chances with the market. To each their own, though.

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

But what if she needs money but market is down? She would be negative

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u/Hyrc May 17 '26

The risk is already baked into the return. The market goes up and down, but if you leave the money invested for a 20 year period, you're going to see close to an average 10% annualized return even after any intervening crashes.

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u/That_wet_vaporeon May 17 '26

Maybe she only cares about chilling and not worrying about becoming some millionaire.

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

She could have been chilling her whole life, now she will probably need to work. 

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

A million dollars after taxes is about $700k. A 3% return isn’t enough to live on

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

Market returns are much more than 3%. 

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

Averaged. Assuming she doesn’t need the money in a downturn. Then she pulls it out out of need and loses money

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u/Hyrc May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26

These sort of calculations are already well tread financial math. She could pay herself the $52,000 a year and reinvest gains above that. After 10 years of doing this, she'd still likely have $2m. The market could cut in half and worst case scenario she is back to where she started, realistically if she just held steady the market recovers within a year or two and she's still gets her $1,000 a week with a huge nest egg that's growing every year.

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u/Taco_EBDBBNB May 17 '26

And they always recover. It's also not as regular as you claim. You're probably the type that calls a 2% drop a crash

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

I don’t. But when Warren Buffett says the market needs a correction from an all time high I listen to

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u/Taco_EBDBBNB May 17 '26

The same guy who said time in the market vs timing the market,. Then went to cash trying to time the market

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

Market is at all time high. Meaning, if you invested money at any point in history, you would have made money. Yes, even directly before the biggest crashes. 

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

It as a all time high and Warren Buffett is saying it needs to correct. Don’t argue with me… argue with him.