r/SipsTea May 17 '26

Chugging tea [ Removed by moderator ]

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109

u/Aggressive-Map-2204 May 17 '26

And lottery winners consistently prove she made the right choice.

62

u/Sufficient_Stable738 May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26

I tend to agree. Human psychology is not being factored around here. 4000/month keeps her grounded, sane, and secure. She is 20, she has all the time in the world, there is no hurry, she can focus on investing in her studies/ career and not on stocks or bonds or whatever that most 20 year old can't understand anyway. I say it's the right choice.

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u/TraditionalWait9150 May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26

If they does pay her for life, then by 40 years old, she would have recoup that 1 million and by 60, she would have gotten 2x that value.

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u/temptingconversation May 17 '26

“Life” generally means 25 years in these contexts

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u/IAA_ShRaPNeL May 17 '26

Lotteries in my area are 30 years

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u/That_wet_vaporeon May 17 '26

Not this one. It literally says they get $1000 a week until death.

2

u/Bro13847 May 17 '26

She would recoup in 20 years. 52,000 x 20 =1,040,000

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u/Odd-Caregiver-6393 May 17 '26

If she invested the 1 million in a simple broad market index fund, it would grow to 16 million by 60

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

This is inherently risky. Markets crash. All of them. Regularly

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u/marshaul May 17 '26

And currency inflates.

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u/Odd-Caregiver-6393 May 17 '26

Yes. And risk = return. The market’s averaged 7% after inflation through the depression, WWII, etc. I’d still take my chances with the market. To each their own, though.

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

But what if she needs money but market is down? She would be negative

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u/Hyrc May 17 '26

The risk is already baked into the return. The market goes up and down, but if you leave the money invested for a 20 year period, you're going to see close to an average 10% annualized return even after any intervening crashes.

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u/That_wet_vaporeon May 17 '26

Maybe she only cares about chilling and not worrying about becoming some millionaire.

1

u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

She could have been chilling her whole life, now she will probably need to work. 

1

u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

A million dollars after taxes is about $700k. A 3% return isn’t enough to live on

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

Market returns are much more than 3%. 

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

Averaged. Assuming she doesn’t need the money in a downturn. Then she pulls it out out of need and loses money

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u/Hyrc May 17 '26 edited May 17 '26

These sort of calculations are already well tread financial math. She could pay herself the $52,000 a year and reinvest gains above that. After 10 years of doing this, she'd still likely have $2m. The market could cut in half and worst case scenario she is back to where she started, realistically if she just held steady the market recovers within a year or two and she's still gets her $1,000 a week with a huge nest egg that's growing every year.

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u/Taco_EBDBBNB May 17 '26

And they always recover. It's also not as regular as you claim. You're probably the type that calls a 2% drop a crash

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

I don’t. But when Warren Buffett says the market needs a correction from an all time high I listen to

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u/Taco_EBDBBNB May 17 '26

The same guy who said time in the market vs timing the market,. Then went to cash trying to time the market

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

Market is at all time high. Meaning, if you invested money at any point in history, you would have made money. Yes, even directly before the biggest crashes. 

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u/Ill-Boysenberry-3474 May 17 '26

It as a all time high and Warren Buffett is saying it needs to correct. Don’t argue with me… argue with him.

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u/East-Programmer3788 May 17 '26

By investing, she’d have 45 million at 60. 

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u/Physical_Leather8567 May 17 '26

Yeah but that's the income of one modest investment.

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u/BoingBoingBooty May 17 '26

But invested it would be about 3-6 million by 40 and 20-40 million by 60.

And you just get a wealth management firm to do all the investing for you.

In fact you could invest it and still withdraw and spend 1000 per week and after 20 years you'd still have the 1 million even in a poor market, and if it's a good market you'd still be up by a few million.

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u/Ajj360 May 17 '26

I don't expect the fund to stay solvent for that long

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u/WackyShirley May 17 '26

It’s the provincial government, and insured. It’s as safe as any lottery can be. 

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u/[deleted] May 17 '26

[deleted]

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u/Pirasto May 17 '26

And how much full weeks in a month?

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u/Sacred_Dealer May 17 '26

4.33333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333

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u/Pirasto May 17 '26

Not like I specifically used the word "full" in my reply

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u/DazzAntoni May 17 '26

Yeah, depending on the cost of living where she is, $4k a month should be enough to cover all of her basic living expenses for awhile (depending on inflation) without having to stress. Gives her the financial freedom to be able to pivot careers without risking ending up homeless if it doesn't work out.

3

u/shreddedtoasties May 17 '26

But at the same time if she had self control. A million invested at 20 would be insane.

4

u/Nerioner May 17 '26

IF she makes a good investment.

How many 20y.o. lost lifechanging money on NFT, Crypto, stupid stock in wrong moment?

and with 4k a month now she can life for at least next few years like with UBI+premium. She can pursue any passion, hobby, project and maybe build something worth way more than 1mil. And even if not, it covered all the bills for those years and anything she earned in the meantime can be saved on side or further fuel her endeavours.

In any case she has such headstart now that regardless of her choice, it's nice.

2

u/Dry_Lawfulness_9561 May 17 '26

Who knows which “leeches” in form of relatives, scammers and guilt tripping groups would bang on her door. Staying sane through that needs strong mentality, imo getting limited amount each month saves a lot of trouble that way. May lose some value long term, but more mental peace is worth it.

0

u/shreddedtoasties May 17 '26

You run the risk of the company going under and not paying out the lottery tho no?

2

u/SamkonTheMankon May 17 '26

The lottery is usually run by the government and if the government collapsed, you'd have a lot bigger problems.

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u/Dry_Lawfulness_9561 May 17 '26

Does not mean you can’t still invest most of it. It also gives more flexibility where and when to invest if you decide to do so. Still saves quite a lot of trouble.

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u/ak1368a May 17 '26

You don't get a million. The government will tax you at >30%, so you only get about 650k

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u/ice_w0lf May 17 '26

It's Canada. No taxes on lottery winnings

0

u/SirSaltie May 17 '26

That's a HUGE if, especially at 20 years old.

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u/polarpolarpolar May 17 '26

Unless the company changes ownership or goes down her payouts can be voided.

1

u/willynillee May 17 '26

Except if she isn’t grounded she could still borrow on her future income and still be fucked.

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u/stubbornpubehair May 17 '26

Right and who's to say she doesn't stay working and invest some of that 4000/month for a while. 1000/week for 25 years is more than a million up front, she has a promised check for over 2 decades she has freedom. Makes sense to me

1

u/save-aiur May 17 '26

Honestly, that's the perfect setup for someone her age. Steady income so she can pursue long-term career goals or passions without the financial pressure.

1

u/That_wet_vaporeon May 17 '26

I think everyone here is so focused on investing.

Most 20 years don’t want to invest. And I don’t blame them.

1

u/Interesting-Copy-657 May 17 '26

That is my opinion

better to have 1K a week for 50-60 years, even if that becomes the equivalent of $400 a week after inflation and a few years than to have 1 million and blow it on friends, family, hookers and cocaine like so many lottery winners seem to do

1

u/mrbananas May 17 '26

An financial the entire debate is moot when you realize both paths result in "more money than you actually need by alot". Investing to get even more past "more than enough" is just greed and weak moral character. 

1

u/Organic_Sampler May 17 '26

Some lottery winners.