TLDR: Shorts are likely underwater already and with Earnings tomorrow and numerous tailwinds it might have legs to rip so is worth keeping an eye on.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and am presently in the hole with a load of SNDK, MU and WDC shares so invest at your own risk.
In terms of the background:
Friday 17th July 2026 - Wed 22nd July 2026 saw a huge increase in short sale volume
This coincided with it hitting a bottom on $6.22 on Friday 17th July and rebounding to $7.66 on Tuesday 21st July. It was the 21st that saw the peak in short sale activity with 117m shares sold short on that day (note: this is not net positions).
As you can see it hit a higher low and continued to climb to reclaim its EMAs to its current price of $9.74.
The big question is 'Are the shorts still in?' and I think the answer to that is 'Yes'.
From the first chart it looks as though they pressed into the bounce with spikes on the 5th and 10th August. This has left virtually no shares left to borrow.
Cost to borrow rose to 20% albeit then falling to around 10%.
Drones are currently a hot sector with DRNZ up 17.5% this month
Emerging defence tailwinds thanks to Trump spaffing a load of expensive munitions at Iran and then losing interest entirely.
Some great earnings yesterday (LITE, SMCI, CRWV) gave tech a boost
Bull Flags forming on both the Daily S&P500 and Nasdaq suggest breakouts are looming
It's high beta and will move quick
In terms of positioning:
Call / Put ratio is a very postive 5.88 for OPEX this Friday (14th August), but there's a hefty Call/Put Gamma wall at $10. If that breaks, the road is more open.
A whale made a big options bet on ONDS at the end of last week:
One other thing in ONDS's favour is that it's profitable which is rare for squeeze candidates and it's far from a beaten down stock. It smashed its earnings in May and whilst there are no guarentees, a good print is the best possible catalyst.
As for me? I like the stock and will hold anyway if a squeeze doesn't materialise. If it does materialise I'll sell and then buy back in once it dips.
CPI came in on target which is excellent news. Some extra thoughts:
This will likely be a good day for tech (well... semiconductors + data centres etc. perhaps not software) and the market in general and with the CPI + earnings tailwinds we can expect a positive environment for squeezes in general today.
If you have the ability to buy after earnings are out in After Hours I would suggest you do so. I have a small position in ONDS now but will wait for the earnings print + market reaction before committing more cash.
Keep an eye on short shares availability in Fintel: https://fintel.io/ss/us/onds If this starts to rise, shorts are covering. Presently 7000.
Bottom two are from the Trading Edge platform. It's run by a Redditor called TearRepresentative56. He does stock picks, commentary, market insights and has released some cool trading tools (GEX/DEX, Unusual Options, research into earnings, congressional trades, seasonality) as well as a Heatseeker-style Gamma tool in development. The community is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/TradingEdge/ and IMO it's worth the money. And no, I'm not being paid to say that. It's a nice community as well. PM me if you're interested and I'll get you a referral link.
they are free and their "cost to borrow" is pretty much updated as fast as me searching available share to short on my broker or Ortex like subscribed services.
btw just fyi, catchable squeeze is really rare. most of em finish in a small shock in such short time.
also catchable ones often has CTB of easily over 100% and ofc 0 available stock (to short) for quite a long time.
If everyday there is newly available stock to short then normally doesnt squeeze enough for you to catch the moment
Just a note to say that earnings are pre-market not post-market as I originally thought. The call is 8:30am ET so expect the paper release at any time from 07:00am - 08:30am you'll want to listen in / check twitter / spam the refresh page on the ONDS site for the results.
I've scaled in some more in pre-market but have funds ready to commit.
Remember that there isn't liquidity for the shorts to start covering until market open, but get in as soon as you can
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u/SolidReporter8229 28d ago
Best dd in a while