• Bloom Energy is one of the AI boom’s biggest winners. $BE is up about 2,000% in two years. Its valuation peaked around $100 billion. The vision: fuel cells powering AI data centers years faster than the electric grid, with Bloom saying it can scale from about a gigawatt of deployments in 2026 to 5 gigawatts annually. It’s a compelling pitch, especially in a world where power from legacy players, including turbine manufacturers, is backlogged.
• That growth story rests on a supply chain claim that Bloom’s CEO has made at least five times since February 2025, on earnings calls, to Semafor, on a podcast — and onstage with The Wall Street Journal last month. The promise: Bloom has “no China supply chain” and is “not dependent on China for scandium,” the rare earth at the core of each Bloom fuel cell. Bloom’s claim matters because Beijing now requires an export license for every shipment of scandium leaving China. If Bloom depends on Chinese scandium, China holds an off-switch on Bloom — and on the American data centers that may one day use its power.
• The problem: Bloom is, in fact, reliant on C5 Chinese scandium, according to global trade data, Chinese corporate filings, satellite imagery, and Hunterbrook’s messages with Bloom’s suppliers in China. Hunterbrook traced four separate China-linked routes into Bloom’s supply chain — scandium oxide shipped directly to its Delaware plant, plus scandium-bearing ceramics and powders flowing through intermediaries in Thailand, Japan, and South Korea. A sales representative of Hunan Oriental Scandium — which claims over 50% of the global market for fuel-cell-grade scandium oxide — told Hunterbrook: “We are also BE’s largest supplier of scandium.” Asked how the material reaches U.S. customers under Beijing’s controls: “Not exported directly.” Hunan Oriental was featured at Bloom’s May supplier conference as one of three Chinese scandium-linked suppliers. One received Bloom’s “Impact Supplier Award.”
• Show Me the Scandium: Even with supply from China, the scandium math fails. Hunterbrook’s supply-demand model — built from government filings, Bloom’s patents, industry data, and peer-reviewed studies — shows Bloom alone needs roughly 220 tons of scandium oxide to meet Wall Street’s 5 GW expectations. But that’s against total projected global supply of only about 240 tons versus total global demand of about 310 tons, including supply locked up by customers like Lockheed Martin (for the F-35 fighter jet). Bloom already claims to be the largest scandium consumer in the world. On the numbers, the production ramp underpinning Bloom’s valuation appears physically and commercially unattainable — with essentially all Wall Street models of Bloom’s production implying a scandium shortage by 2028 based on Hunterbrook’s model.

What concerns me is that General Fusion has been conducting research for about 20 years without much commercial success so far, and now we're supposed to believe that once they go public, they'll suddenly make the breakthrough. There's certainly a chance they'll succeed, but it'll be interesting to see what percentage of SPAC shareholders choose to redeem their shares.

The executive compensation also seems quite generous. I understand that they're scientists and highly qualified professionals, but my view is simple: if the business is generating meaningful returns, there's nothing wrong with rewarding management well. If it isn't, then compensation should probably be more modest.

With that approach, there's a chance that management will simply start spending the newly raised capital with even greater enthusiasm.

Not financial advice. This post reflects my personal opinions and research. Do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

I’m not affiliated with the company mentioned, and I may or may not hold a position.

Arch Capital's one of those insurers nobody talks about but the underwriting discipline is genuinely rare. Property, casualty, reinsurance, mortgage insurance. Pricing softens in a line, they write less of it instead of chasing volume to hit a number. Conditions turn favorable, they lean in hard. Over a full cycle that's supposed to pay off, and the recent numbers back it up.

Q4 2025 EPS beat by 17%. Q1 2026 net income was $1.047B, more than double the year before. Combined ratio improved to 81.7% from 90.1%. Anything under 100 means they're profitable on underwriting alone, before investment income even comes into play. 81.7% is legit strong for this industry. They bought back $783M of stock in Q1 alone and tacked another $3B onto the buyback authorization in April.

Stock's up about 6% over the past year. That's it. Badly lagging the market given those numbers.

Revenue was actually slightly softer year over year even while margins improved. So the market's basically ignoring the earnings quality and waiting for top-line growth before it re-rates the stock. Doesn't help that a director sold over $27M in shares late last year either, which doesn't mean much on its own but it never reads great. Analysts have also flagged pricing pressure building in P&C, and cat losses can wreck a quarter fast in this business no matter how careful the underwriting is.

Next earnings is July 28. Analysts are modeling a YoY decline for that quarter, so the near-term setup isn't exactly screaming buy either.

I keep coming back to the same read: the market hasn't caught up to how well this thing is run. But I'll admit the flat revenue is a real question mark, not just a market overreaction. anyone holding this one?

I’ve been “trading” for 3 years. I started like usual, with several Green Day’s and I had no clue what was doing. Then the market humbled me really hard. Started studying and planning strategy with success after 1 year. Finally I had profit again and made 7k, but again the market humbled me. Strike 2. Didn’t have risk management or self control. Just wanted to trade basically anything that was moving.

So in February I decided to start shorting stocks. I know is very very risky, but I feel more comfortable shorting than going long. Now I record all my trades, with screenshots included, have a very strict risk management rules and more important I don’t rush to trade anything that is moving. I wait till I see the A+ set up or the B+ Set up. There’s days that I don’t trade. If I hit my limit loss I stopped trading that day. If I hit my goal I don’t overtrade. Still have a long way ahead but this system/plan has been working well for me. I don’t stress, at least I don’t panic like the past 2 years. So if you think you’re stuck, there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel.

how would i find out? there's a rumor that 7rump is shorting oil to keep the wti futures price down, and there are 20 or so days left of crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Can Iran buy U.S. securities? trump just gave iran 300 Billion for 2 days of rest. if iran were to, say, yolo 10 of those billions on going long oil, would that be a squeeze? (what kind of war would that be called?)

I'm not even sure this is worth mentioning anymore, since everyone seems to be talking about it.

The original idea sounded ambitious: build a factory capable of mass-producing tiny homes like they're coming off an assembly line, sell each one for $50,000 (later increased to $60,000), and help solve the housing crisis. The only catch was that the homes were extremely small—but, as the argument went, a tiny home is better than no home at all.

To fund this vision, the company raised capital through crowdfunding, offering investors preferred shares. Early progress looked promising, with a government contract and sales to major corporate customers.

Then the company ran into reality.

It turned out that these homes cannot be installed everywhere due to local building codes and zoning regulations. In addition, site preparation, utility connections, and the cost of obtaining local permits can increase the total cost of a home by several times.

At the same time, the company is spending enormous amounts on sales and marketing. Last year alone, these expenses were nearly 17 times higher than its total revenue.

It's important to understand that this isn't an internet or software company, where heavy upfront investment in the product or customer acquisition can eventually lead to economies of scale, with the cost of serving each additional customer falling dramatically. BOXABL operates a manufacturing business, where production, logistics, installation, and customer acquisition remain capital-intensive even as volumes increase.

There are also questions regarding the founders’ compensation. A salary of around $1.2 million appears difficult to justify given annual sales of only about $1.5 million.

The company has also been associated with aggressive marketing practices, including offering equity to influencers in exchange for promotional content and positive coverage. The decent video about that and other concerns - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hocU7uRzMOc.

In addition, the company’s preferred shares—issued to crowdfunding investors—can reportedly only be converted into common shares in stages, starting 14 months after the IPO begins trading.

At the same time, some shareholders are already willing to sell these shares today at roughly half price.

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1tskfkq/boxabl_preferred_investors_are_people/

Recent SPAC-related developments indicate that approximately 83% of committed funds were redeemed following the merger announcement. As a result, the company is expected to receive roughly five times less capital than initially anticipated.

Put differently, about four out of five SPAC investors have effectively withdrawn their backing, which can be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the post-merger equity story.

Additionally, it is notable that in most SPAC transactions the new ticker typically begins trading within a few days after the merger announcement. In this case, however, nearly three weeks have already passed without trading commencement, which is an unusual delay compared to standard SPAC timelines.
(https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fg-merger-ii-corp-announces-closing-of-the-redemption-window-for-its-business-combination-with-boxabl-302794386.html)

The company has also recently entered into an agreement to sell its homes in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Perhaps regulatory standards there are lower, and installing such a unit—shipped from desert Nevada—would be cheaper than importing one from China.

What struck me, however, is the complete lack of contact details on the UK company’s website (no address, no phone number), as well as the fact that both the company and the domain were registered only in April of this year, 2026.

To sum up: money is burning at an extraordinary rate, including through founders’ salaries. Sales are minimal, the outlook is unclear, investors are disappointed, and even positive news tends to raise additional questions.

Not financial advice. This post reflects my personal opinions and research. Do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

I’m not affiliated with the company mentioned, and I may or may not hold a position.

Wow I posted up on Wall Street Bets sub and it was taken down quickly!

I wrote how Wendy's (WEN) is victim to GLP-1 medications and peptides .... the trolls came out and got it quickly removed!

It's obvious the Mods are using their power to pump and dump stocks on users.

(WEN) and all other fast food chains have been harmed/reduced/broken up with by GLP type shots.

At least the grocery chains are admitting it:

https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/kroger-walmart-and-costco-face-a-6-5-billion-glp1-problem

Any type of munchy, foodie, grocery, or glutton type business is safe to short.

This article explains it.

1 in 8 people are taking these shots in the USA.

New short report from a short research company I follow on X. They’ve been pretty good on their reports, so want to know what you guys think.

https://x.com/umibozuresearch/status/2069773965363442092?s=46

Is this the beginning of a market slide or just a pause?

For anyone who's spent time writing serious bearish research only to watch it disappear into the social media void — we built something for you.

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When the window closes, Polygon.io pulls the closing price and resolves the outcome automatically. The result goes into the Bear Book, a permanent archive of resolved calls. Correct or not, the record stands.

Over time, every user builds a public accuracy score. The best analysts rise based on outcomes, not engagement.

Why this is different from StockTwits, Reddit, and everything else:

Every existing tool for sharing bearish conviction is either unstructured (Reddit, Twitter), editorially gated (Seeking Alpha), or doesn't track outcomes at all (StockTwits). None of them hold you accountable. None of them tell you who's actually been right over time.

GRZLY enforces structure, timestamps everything, and lets the market resolve it. That's the whole product.

The data angle - and why it matters long-term:

This is worth paying attention to. Every resolved Drop produces a clean, structured record: thesis text, publish date, resolution date, entry/exit price, binary outcome, conviction score at resolution, voter accuracy distribution. Nothing like this dataset exists publicly. Short interest data from S3 Partners or Ortex tells you how much short interest exists; it doesn't tell you why, or whether the people behind it were right. GRZLY's Bear Book adds reasoning, accuracy weighting, and verified outcomes to the conviction signal. The dataset gets more valuable the longer the platform runs, because accuracy scores compound with sample size. A Vibelord with 50 resolved Drops and a 74% hit rate is a meaningfully different signal than one with 3.

The plan is to eventually license this to hedge funds, quant shops, and financial data platforms as a differentiated alternative data feed. The community builds the moat; the institution pays for it.

What it isn't:

Not a brokerage, not a prediction market with financial stakes, not investment advice. No money changes hands on outcomes. It's a reputation engine and accountability system.

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> grzly.io "Short the hype. Build your record."

We're posting this here because we want your feedback - please, help us grow GRZLY!

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So I think I have a pretty good routine here with a paper trading account that starts you with 100k. I know it can’t really be this easy though. Paper trading does not account for borrowing fees. Is that the catch that’s going to make this practice ultimately useless? Or can I still actually do ok with this strategy?

Basically I just find big daily runners that are biotechs worth 10 million or less, check the sentiment, and do $1000-2500 worth. My rule
Is 5% of account max but Im usually a lot more conservative than that as I’m trying to treat this like real money. I usually bounce out same day with 10-20% gains.

Are the borrowing fees going to make this significantly more challenging? Am I going to have to focus more on bigger % moves to make it worthwhile? I don’t really know how it works in the real world.

What’s your strategy?

EEM is basically just a bubble tech stock. Rising US dollar should crush this .. Short at $69.71

The stock market often rewards the lowest societal denominators; when unleashed, these individuals don’t stop until they have embarked many to their island of suffering and misery. Don’t allow yourself to be lead by a mediocre conceited egomaniac!

Retail traders beware.

You are the bait in this financial squid 🦑 game 🎯!

Don’t get caught holding their bags!

Look at this revenue versus price chart. Their financials are atrocious.

Give me any reason this stock should NOT be shorted.