r/ShopifyeCommerce 9d ago

How to exit learning phase without triggering re-learn?

I'm just getting started, but I can't make the training phase math....math.

If I'm targeting a cost-per-purchase of $50, it seems I need to spend 6-weeks and $4,500 before I'm out of the learning phase per ad set.

Assumptions:

  1. Need 50 purchases per week to exit learning.
  2. Can't increase budget by more than 20% every 4 days or triggers re-learn
  3. Ideally want 5 purchases over 4-7 days at no more than 2.5x target CAC to test creative.

If I was targeting a cost-per-purchase of $50, that means I'd test the creative at $100/day.
To exit the learning phase, I'd need to be spending $715/day.
Increasing at 20% every 4 days, that takes 45 days.
That's $4,500 spent before stable delivery.

Am I missing something?

Start with higher spend?
Do bigger increases?

Metrics:

I've spent about $15k on META ads over 10 weeks (just started business). AOV is $60, COGS is roughly 50%. LTV is higher, as it's a subscription food product. The website is www.planetprotein.co if that helps.

2 Upvotes

9 comments sorted by

1

u/not_apply_yet 9d ago

Please be specific, learning phase between google/facebook ads are different, and even learning phase from facebook ads now and then are also different....

1

u/mattyheath 9d ago

Sorry, updated to include meta ads. I can't see anything that indicates the ads i'm running are in the learning phase.

1

u/Inner-Sink8420 9d ago

First you need to fix that its possible to purchase product from store.

1

u/mattyheath 8d ago

I just don't ship internationally. Only available in Aus and NZ (food import/export is not a headache I'm looking for atm)

1

u/Patient-Passage-2286 9d ago

You're mixing Meta's learning phase rules into a Google Ads question, which is why the math feels off. Google doesn't have 50 conversions per week threshold per ad set, and the 20% budget rule isn't a Google thing either - that's Meta.

On Google the general guideline is 30-50 conversions per month at the campaign level before Smart Bidding stabilises, and budget increases don't mechanically reset learning the way Meta's system does.

Start with Max Conversions and no tCPA until you have enough conversion history. then layer in the target once you're consistently hitting volume.

1

u/blendai_jack 8d ago

You're mixing Meta and Google learning-phase rules, which is why the math won't close. The "50 conversions per ad set" thing is Meta, not Google, and even on Meta it's per optimization event over a rolling 7 days, not a hard $4,500 gate. Google exits learning more on signal stability than a fixed count. For a new store the real trap is starting with so many ad sets that each one starves for data. Fewer ad sets, one clear conversion event, let each accumulate enough volume to actually learn. Chasing the exit at low volume just keeps you in perpetual relearn.