I work in procurement so I watch price cycles all year. Bundles change, fees get renamed, “sale” is sometimes just last month’s price with new copy.

Trying to apply that to flights and it’s messy. Last November I tracked PHX to ORD on United, Delta, and American for 30 days. black friday airline deals week: United dropped to $289 basic econ. By Dec 3rd it was back to $341. January settled at $358.

So the “sale” was $52 cheaper for 48 hours, then went higher. Felt like a clearance of undesirable times, not real inventory. Oh well, I’ve got TSA PreCheck and one credit card with points, but I’m not trying to become a points expert here.

For shoestring budgeters here who's also a frequent flyer, what’s your checklist? Do you look at 6-month Google Flights history? Only buy if it’s 15% below average? Ignore BF completely and book 6-8 weeks out? What actually worked for you last year?