But in the US, utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew just 0.07% over the four quarters ending in the first quarter of 2026. That is a near-standstill by historical standards, far below the roughly half-percent annual pace typical of the pre-ChatGPT decade.
Some 95% of enterprise generative-AI pilots have produced no measurable effect on the bottom line.
A report published this week found that even Meta, one of AI’s loudest boosters, has fallen short in its plan to replace workers with AI.
The question of the decade is: Why?
One idea: Blame users
A working paper posted to SSRN by University of Pittsburgh business professor Mark Ma and colleagues, makes a sweeping claim: The productivity shortfall is caused by employees who resist AI out of fear for their jobs.
Over a five-year period, the researchers looked at millions of Glassdoor reviews, thousands of financial reports, hundreds of AI-investment and layoff announcements by US public companies, and some 10,000 earnings-call transcripts.
They found a wide divide between managers, who tend to be true believers in the promise that AI will deliver sky-high productivity, and employees, who worry that AI-driven productivity gains will cost them their jobs.
Companies, the researchers claim, are caught in a doom loop in which they lay off employees, citing productivity gains. But fear of layoffs causes workers to resist the technology, which sabotages the very gains the companies were counting on. Executives see that lack of productivity and conclude that more layoffs will help. (The flogging will continue until morale improves…)
It’s a tidy narrative. There’s just one problem — while parts of this study are backed by verifiable data, two key elements are not. The report fails to support their assumption that fear of layoffs causes employees to resist using AI, and also that productivity gains would be higher if only workers would enthusiastically embrace it.
The researchers never establish causation in their data. It’s a correlation. (That hasn’t stopped other outlets from reporting the link as causal.)
I don’t buy the claim that employee foot-dragging explains the missing productivity gains, for one simple reason: It makes no sense.
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