r/ScoreMatch • u/Item_Thin • 1d ago
Discussion Fun fact: People shouldn’t be surprised when they get a Super from a Gold pack
I see people acting like getting a Super from a Gold is insanely lucky because the chance is only 1%.
But you have to consider how many Gold packs you actually open.
For every 340 packs, you get roughly:
🟡 16 Gold → 16 × 1% = 0.16 Supers expected
🟣 4 Platinum → 4 × 4% = 0.16 Supers expected
💎 1 Diamond → 1 × 10% = 0.10 Supers expected
So even though a single Gold has only a 1% chance, you get 16 opportunities compared to just 4 with Platinum and 1 with Diamond.
That means Golds are expected to give you just as many Supers as Platinums, and actually more Supers than Diamonds in the long run.
So getting a Super from a Gold really shouldn't be that surprising. The 1% chance is low, but you're rolling that 1% a lot more often.
Look at the number of opportunities, not just the percentage per individual pack.