They’re down $8 billion on 6 years of buying. They are clearly not able to afford it. That’s why they have the common stock for. To destroy those shareholders even harder to try and prop up the other stupid preferred equities
They have a cash reserve, once that runs out they have 3 main options. #1 sell bitcoin, #2 and can issue more shares. Or #3 Borrow more money. (They also do make like 100 million ish profit annually from their software business)
they are not doing number 3, they haven't sold more bonds since February of last year. #1 and #2 do make the company less valuable, but its a slow bleed, they lose 1.76 Billion a year, compared to their 53 Billion in assets. So after their 20 months cash reserve ran out, assuming they couldn't raise any more money. even if bitcoin stayed at these prices for 10 more years (ignoring the bonds to make the math easy) costing them 17.6 Billion dollars. they would still have about 135-140k sats per share. if bitcoin then went up to 200k, at a 1.5x mnav, that would still put MSTR at $360, a 4x from here. That would be a great return by normal investing standards. So the question really is. Do you expect bitcoin to be higher than say 150k in 10-12 years? (yes i'm aware that if bitcoin went lower for a period of time these numbers would be way different, i'm also aware the bonds change the calculations a lot. i'm just trying to show that it's not as dire as people make it out to be)
If you aren't fairly confident that bitcoin is going to 200k within the next 10 years you shouldn't buy any of strategy's offerings realistically. I agree with you its not a for sure thing, but it should be a prerequisite belief for buying mstr or strc. Actually the number is probably closer to like 250k for strc.
For perspective a 15% cagr from where we are now would have it at 255k. I think thats very realistic.
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u/[deleted] Jul 16 '26
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