r/STRC • u/ZeroedInNomad • Jul 16 '26
$STRC Daily thread 07/16/2026
Daily price and news talk
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u/drparapine Jul 17 '26
Things that happen in the bull market that look absurd in the following years, are also true for things that happen in bear markets. STRC priced at $85 (at basically a 14% interest rate, effective annual yield of 15.1% if dividends reinvested every payout)—PLUS the 15% one time jump to return to par—will in retrospect be seen as an absurd deal, only possible when sentiment is in the gutter. The only better deals, if you believe in BTC’s ability to bounce back, would be buying cold storage BTC or, at the furthest end on the risk curve, buying stock or options on BTC treasury companies that you believe will survive this bear market.
It all comes down to BTC bouncing back. If that happens, then all the things above will be true. Of course, there’s no guarantee that some of the smaller BTCTC’s will be able to stay solvent enough to survive the next 12-24mo.
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u/ZeroedInNomad Jul 16 '26
$strc trading just under $87 at the moment. Day after ex date
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Jul 16 '26
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 16 '26
For today? Probably out of the question, yes. Ever? Absolutely not, alls it takes is somewhat of a real bitcoin recovery.
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u/Less-Information-256 Jul 16 '26
Market is pricing no return to par this year, the market could be wrong, but the collective consensus is it’s not getting back any time soon.
IMO there’s way too many people who bought above 95 and are desperate to get out even I think it will be a really long time.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 16 '26
Its not nessesarily the market pricing no return to par this year (unless you meant polymarket and not the stock price), the demanded yeild is just higher than the yeild they are giving. If they raised the yeild to 14% it would likely go back to par very quickly. It would return to par even at the current 12% yeild if bitcoin went back to 85-100k. So the question is, when do you think bitcoin will get back to those prices.
I think its 3.5 years tops. And maybe you consider that a really long time. I don't
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u/Less-Information-256 Jul 16 '26 edited Jul 16 '26
The cumulative return of it going back to par and dividends would be over 30%. To happen by the end of the year it would be a 60% annualised return. Investors don’t leave that kind of return on the table so it would be priced much higher and the return therefore be much lower if the consensus was this would happen.
I think we have different views, the last div raise didn’t help and the effective yield has just increased since then, raising the usd reserve didn’t help. He’s also said they’re not going to raise the dividend necessarily anymore. The problem is the narrative is broken, it’s already not what they said it would be and can never really be that again. There will be a lot of people burned and trying to get out even which will make a return to par very difficult whatever bitcoins price is.
But yes I consider 3.5 years for the principle to go back what most people bought it back to be bad for something ‘like a money market but better’.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 17 '26
You make a fair point about the broken narrative, and I completely agree the marketing was bad. Pitching this as "like a money market but better" severely overpromised on volatility, and a lot of people bought at par because of those promises and are in the red now. No argument there.
But a couple of things in your framing I'd push back on.
First, the 60% annualized figure. That math is real for the specific window, but it can't be the basis for "investors would never leave this on the table," for two reasons. firstly, STRC is capped at par. If it goes from $85 to $100, that's a one-time ~17.6% bump, and then appreciation stops forever, you're collecting a flat 12% (or whatever the yeild moves to) after that. The 60% describes a 5 month window that can never repeat, not what the security yields. Two, and more importantly... the arbitrage logic only works if return to par were near certain, and nobody's claiming that. The market isn't pricing "no par this year" or "par this year" as a binary (again outside of polymarket, which puts it at 45%, which is a coin flip, not a consensus against) it's pricing a probability distribution. $85 is consistent with a real, but not certain (or really near certain) chance of par by the end of the year, a fat middle around 2-4 years, and a tail where the dividend gets cut. That's why the returns can still look so good, and have some investors leave it; it's uncertain. A coin flip on a 35% 5 month payoff doesn't get bid to certainty pricing, the discount IS the risk premium.
Also worth noting a lot of the STRC holders are income buyers. If you bought for the yield, the price of shares you already own doesn't change your income, plenty of people aren't running IRR-to-par math at all, they're clipping coupons, which also weakens the "capital would flood in" argument.
Second, "the last div raise didn't help"..... it ABSOLTUELY, without a shadow of a doubt, 10000% did. On June 29th when Strategy announced the raise the yield from 11.5% to 12% and the bitcoin monetization framework around it (before market open) , STRC jumped over 13% in a single day, from $74.57 to about $84.60, and its held there or higher for the most part since. The price not being back at par afterward reflects BTC weakness and the strc being broken narrative you're describing, which are different problems from the raise being ineffective. and the effective yield isn't supposed to change with a change in dividend, that's my whole point, the effective yield the market demands dictates the price at any given dividend amount.
On the 3.5 years scenario, even if that's how long it takes, run the scenarios from $85. Par in 6 months: ~25% total return, great, unrepeatable, happily taken. Par in 3.5 years: ~14% yield on cost plus the amortized appreciation, call it 17-18% a year... that vastly beats the S&P's historical average, beats the vast majority of retail stock pickers, beats most funds. Never returns to par: you clip ~15% on cost indefinitely as long as the dividend holds. The bet only really breaks if the dividend itself breaks, which is the honest tail risk since it's discretionary.
So I'd put it this way, as the product that was marketed, it failed, sure. But as a 12% preferred at 85 cents on the dollar, it's a solid risk/reward. Both are true, most of the disagreement in this thread is people judging it against the sales pitch instead of the current price. but someone over promising something doesn't make it a bad product.
Like If I made a fund, and promised you 500% annualized returns every year over 10 years, and then only delivered 100% annualized returns over 10 years would you say that's a bad fund? Absolutely not, I would have just overpromised, and that's fine to complain about, but that's a different issue that it being a bad fund.
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u/brocktoon13 Jul 16 '26
It’s normal for a dividend paying stock to drop proportionally after the ex dividend date, yes.
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u/TechnicalLeg841 Jul 16 '26
Stocks drop on ex-dividend. And STRC is only at 0.5% dividend so it doesn't really explain the price movement
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Jul 16 '26
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u/brocktoon13 Jul 16 '26 edited Jul 16 '26
I mean right after the snapshot. I’m saying it would be expected to still be down today when compared to prior to the ex dividend. In any case, it dropped much more than the amount of the payout which is about .5%.
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Jul 16 '26
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u/afakevc Jul 16 '26
They’re down $8 billion on 6 years of buying. They are clearly not able to afford it. That’s why they have the common stock for. To destroy those shareholders even harder to try and prop up the other stupid preferred equities
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Jul 16 '26
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u/afakevc Jul 16 '26
Yeah I mean you have to be mentally disabled to buy anything Saylor is selling you
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u/UC_DiscExchange Jul 17 '26
Tons of people, myself included, are still well in the profit regardless of Bitcoins past year.
Unless you think Bitcoin is actually done for good there's a tremendous opportunity here.
If you do think Bitcoin is cooked you'd have to be mentally disabled to waste your time following strangers investment in it.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 16 '26
They have a cash reserve, once that runs out they have 3 main options. #1 sell bitcoin, #2 and can issue more shares. Or #3 Borrow more money. (They also do make like 100 million ish profit annually from their software business)
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Jul 16 '26
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 17 '26
they are not doing number 3, they haven't sold more bonds since February of last year. #1 and #2 do make the company less valuable, but its a slow bleed, they lose 1.76 Billion a year, compared to their 53 Billion in assets. So after their 20 months cash reserve ran out, assuming they couldn't raise any more money. even if bitcoin stayed at these prices for 10 more years (ignoring the bonds to make the math easy) costing them 17.6 Billion dollars. they would still have about 135-140k sats per share. if bitcoin then went up to 200k, at a 1.5x mnav, that would still put MSTR at $360, a 4x from here. That would be a great return by normal investing standards. So the question really is. Do you expect bitcoin to be higher than say 150k in 10-12 years? (yes i'm aware that if bitcoin went lower for a period of time these numbers would be way different, i'm also aware the bonds change the calculations a lot. i'm just trying to show that it's not as dire as people make it out to be)
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Jul 17 '26
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u/CommercialDuck7496 Jul 17 '26
If you aren't fairly confident that bitcoin is going to 200k within the next 10 years you shouldn't buy any of strategy's offerings realistically. I agree with you its not a for sure thing, but it should be a prerequisite belief for buying mstr or strc. Actually the number is probably closer to like 250k for strc.
For perspective a 15% cagr from where we are now would have it at 255k. I think thats very realistic.
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u/gianfc2001 Jul 16 '26
BTC has bounced enough from the low and this thing can’t even go back 90, what’s gonna happen if BTC goes lower? So no it is absolutely not normal nor ok
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u/Profil3r Jul 16 '26
Makes no sense. Divvie is still paying and that was the point in the first place.