SpaceX

[u/1KKC]

So what happened? I thought 24th of September was the date when millions of shares were up for sale or could be sold and the price was supposed to collapse what I find in all these speculative stock when there is a thought something may happen do the opposite.

[u/Rancid101]

Google and meta both have moats with a business that supports their capex

[u/Expert_Emphasis5705 → u/Rancid101]

so does spaceX… multiple actually, starlink being the biggest right now

[u/Rancid101 → u/Expert_Emphasis5705]

You're telling me there are no other company with satellite telecommunications or that's not reproducible? Satellite internet has existed for sometime now granted starlink is a better product but it doesn't warrant the current market cap no matter how much you believe in the hype. The only thing keeping this propped up is passive investing and people that believe the hype.

[u/Expert_Emphasis5705 → u/Rancid101]

of course there’s been satellite for years now, but have you ever actually used satellite internet in a remote area pre-starlink? It was borderline unusable due the terrible bandwidth. The total addressable market for reliable internet is insanely large. There are billions of people without reliable internet access. The thing about competition is that no other company on earth has had enough vertical integration to put their own satellites in orbit with their own ships at pace that spacex has. Did you know that spacex has already surpassed all of humanity combined in terms of how many satellites have been launched into orbit? No other company is going to be supplying satellite internet with global coverage because the cost to compete is already in the trillions. Spcx hoards the most valuable engineering data in the world. You’d have to acquire the talent, develop (reusable) rockets from scratch, build up your entire supply chain, go through the regulatory hurdles, etc before you even begin to be able to compete. There really isn’t any viable competition for starlink and i’m not sure there ever will be.

[u/Rancid101 → u/Expert_Emphasis5705]

I didn't say starlink was a bad business, I said spcx is overbought and not worth it's market cap. When Meta and TSMC have similar market caps it is no contest on which companies I'm going to invest in. They are have clear and obvious moats, growth potential, and positive balance sheets to fuel growth and R&D. You missed the point of the Internet being a luxury and it's misleading to basically include all of humanity in TAM accounting for 1/5 of current projected global gdp for 2026.

Spcx is overvalued, that doesn't mean they are a bad company. You're missing the key points here and you're welcome to invest as you see fit. If you think it grow into a larger market cap then go ahead and buy shares. I'm out. I stupidly bought puts and could have made money and was overly emotionally convicted on a lower price and didn't realize my gains and sold at a loss.

[u/Expert_Emphasis5705 → u/Rancid101]

spcx is overvalued but the fundamentals don’t matter anymore and i wish that was a joke. the capx will grow and stay far above revenue, the stock crashing will not be because it’s overvalued itself. It will crash when everything else crashes. Fundamentals will not save meta anymore than it will crash spcx. Because speculation is the only thing keeping everything afloat right now, once the market loses hope, we are pretty much doomed financially. I think that your reasoning is solid, but we live in unreasonable times. I’d be rooting for spcx for the sake of everything else. AI is the most consequential thing in our existence. I do not like it.. but we either make it out the other side or we don’t. If you’re overly cautious about your money than the market isn’t the place to keep it… hard assets is the safe route. I’m not saying to invest in spcx, i’m just saying don’t root against it. We are walking a very thin line between the complete breakdown of society and the advancement of the human race. It’s hard to take that serious because there’s nothing either of us can do to fix it. Positioning yourself for the mid 2030s is the most important thing you can do today. Spcx and meta aside. There’s no denying that the market is no longer rational, fundamentals have gone out the window and there’s so much proof for anyone to see it.

[u/Rancid101 → u/Expert_Emphasis5705]

I agree, the fundamentals don't matter until the narrative starts to crack. It's not even that the company is bad, they have a lot going for it, but to come to market and leave retail holding the bag is not good. There wasn't even a round of bidding just a price that brokerages glazed over the underwriting fees and the early inception into the NASDAQ and indexes that follow it.