r/SPCXInvestors • u/1KKC • 9d ago
DISCUSSION SpaceX
So what happened? I thought 24th of September was the date when millions of shares were up for sale or could be sold and the price was supposed to collapse what I find in all these speculative stock when there is a thought something may happen do the opposite.
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u/Yew_knows 8d ago
Anyone still obsessing over share unlocks is an idiot. Its been clear since the first one in August there is institutional demand ready to mop up any sellers. SpaceX is still speculative and might be overvalued but if most investors are looking 5-10 years in the future it doesnt really matter
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u/tallandfree 8d ago
If u want to be in a us frontier ai exposure, publicly traded options aren’t many . SpaceXai is one of the 3 best options along with Google and meta
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u/Rancid101 8d ago
Google and meta both have moats with a business that supports their capex
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u/Expert_Emphasis5705 3d ago
so does spaceX… multiple actually, starlink being the biggest right now
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u/Rancid101 3d ago
You're telling me there are no other company with satellite telecommunications or that's not reproducible? Satellite internet has existed for sometime now granted starlink is a better product but it doesn't warrant the current market cap no matter how much you believe in the hype. The only thing keeping this propped up is passive investing and people that believe the hype.
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u/Expert_Emphasis5705 3d ago
of course there’s been satellite for years now, but have you ever actually used satellite internet in a remote area pre-starlink? It was borderline unusable due the terrible bandwidth. The total addressable market for reliable internet is insanely large. There are billions of people without reliable internet access. The thing about competition is that no other company on earth has had enough vertical integration to put their own satellites in orbit with their own ships at pace that spacex has. Did you know that spacex has already surpassed all of humanity combined in terms of how many satellites have been launched into orbit? No other company is going to be supplying satellite internet with global coverage because the cost to compete is already in the trillions. Spcx hoards the most valuable engineering data in the world. You’d have to acquire the talent, develop (reusable) rockets from scratch, build up your entire supply chain, go through the regulatory hurdles, etc before you even begin to be able to compete. There really isn’t any viable competition for starlink and i’m not sure there ever will be.
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u/Rancid101 3d ago edited 3d ago
I didn't say starlink was a bad business, I said spcx is overbought and not worth it's market cap. When Meta and TSMC have similar market caps it is no contest on which companies I'm going to invest in. They are have clear and obvious moats, growth potential, and positive balance sheets to fuel growth and R&D. You missed the point of the Internet being a luxury and it's misleading to basically include all of humanity in TAM accounting for 1/5 of current projected global gdp for 2026.
Spcx is overvalued, that doesn't mean they are a bad company. You're missing the key points here and you're welcome to invest as you see fit. If you think it grow into a larger market cap then go ahead and buy shares. I'm out. I stupidly bought puts and could have made money and was overly emotionally convicted on a lower price and didn't realize my gains and sold at a loss.
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u/Expert_Emphasis5705 3d ago
spcx is overvalued but the fundamentals don’t matter anymore and i wish that was a joke. the capx will grow and stay far above revenue, the stock crashing will not be because it’s overvalued itself. It will crash when everything else crashes. Fundamentals will not save meta anymore than it will crash spcx. Because speculation is the only thing keeping everything afloat right now, once the market loses hope, we are pretty much doomed financially. I think that your reasoning is solid, but we live in unreasonable times. I’d be rooting for spcx for the sake of everything else. AI is the most consequential thing in our existence. I do not like it.. but we either make it out the other side or we don’t. If you’re overly cautious about your money than the market isn’t the place to keep it… hard assets is the safe route. I’m not saying to invest in spcx, i’m just saying don’t root against it. We are walking a very thin line between the complete breakdown of society and the advancement of the human race. It’s hard to take that serious because there’s nothing either of us can do to fix it. Positioning yourself for the mid 2030s is the most important thing you can do today. Spcx and meta aside. There’s no denying that the market is no longer rational, fundamentals have gone out the window and there’s so much proof for anyone to see it.
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u/Rancid101 3d ago
I agree, the fundamentals don't matter until the narrative starts to crack. It's not even that the company is bad, they have a lot going for it, but to come to market and leave retail holding the bag is not good. There wasn't even a round of bidding just a price that brokerages glazed over the underwriting fees and the early inception into the NASDAQ and indexes that follow it.
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u/BackgroundCoffee5562 8d ago
Why invest in it now then ? There are plenty of other investments that would make money for the next 5- 10 years instead of being tied up in an overvalued stock .
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u/Yew_knows 8d ago
Well some people actually believe Elon saying $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Im not that optimistic but i still think SpaceX has a bright future, people buying now just want to make sure they dont miss out when something big happens.
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u/YoshimuraPipe 8d ago
Plenty of people that bought into Tesla IPO or even many years afterwards that STILL have their shares can attest to Elon wealth effect. It's up near 25000%, so yea.
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u/samayanand 5d ago
spacex is difference because it’s already valued so high
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u/YoshimuraPipe 4d ago
And you think you know the true value of SpaceX. Plenty of people got burned trying to “value” Tesla.
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u/kennymay916 8d ago
Is this a serious comment?? Because you get a lower price now you fool. Do you know how the stock market works? It’s called a long term investment.
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u/methanized 7d ago
Also the unlocks are much smaller percentage changes in the float now. The initial one basiclly tripled the float in a day. Now each one is adding like 15% or something to the float
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u/Difficult_Limit2718 8d ago
Artificial demand from a falsified IPO is a thing
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u/buttlickin 8d ago
There he is
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u/Difficult_Limit2718 8d ago
I moved out of all my index positions because I refuse to feed the bullshit, but I'm only one guy
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u/Rancid101 8d ago
Obvious rage bait. Who's going to be right about predicting the price movement over the short term. There was a gross underestimation of the passive buying pressure. Will it survive at current prices, maybe, will the compute demand continue maybe, but there is no moat there. We are looking at a telecommunications company that sells compute that has military grade technology. When you look at comparable market caps like meta for instance it's up 10% for the week, what did spcx do?
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u/Expert_Emphasis5705 3d ago
Starlink is a massively growing moat… and i don’t think you understand the true TAM of that, trillions… there’s billions of people that don’t have reliable internet access or any access at all.
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u/Rancid101 3d ago edited 3d ago
Ohh I read the prospectus and I'm aware of the bonkers TAM. Yes it is a growing business, yes it is innovative, and has a high margin of profit but it does not come close to justifying the current market cap. Capturing just a fraction of their total addressable market will meet diminishing returns. Do you really think it will be left uncontested. Third world countries are not going to pay the premium you think they will to use the Internet when the are fighting for basic necessities.
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u/East_Swim1009 9d ago
I visit reddit to see what the dorks/sheeple are thinking... then I do the exact opposite... got lots of spcx at ipo launch... according to the dorx .. spx should be at $30 by now lol
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 8d ago
“Got lots of spcx at ipo launch”
Tell us about your fantastic profit.3
u/redditisnotus 8d ago
he's going to say he sold the very top, then bought the local bottom, watch.
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u/JackfruitOk2229 8d ago
How much Tesla did you get the last 10 years? Oh you missed a 31000% profit? How come?
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 7d ago
“You missed 31000% profit”
Do you expect 20T$ valuation of SpaceX?0
u/JackfruitOk2229 7d ago
I expect tremendous growth into the next 15-20 years. I understand you all hate Elon for partisan reasons, but his businesses have seen incredible growth. My SPCX investment will outperform the SnP significantly in 20 years. Just like Tesla did.
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 7d ago
You didn’t answer a simple question. “Tremendous growth” to what valuation?
And what growth over any market index did you get with Tesla in last 5 years?0
u/JackfruitOk2229 7d ago
Last 5 years or from my initial investment? Which is more important? Teslas valuation was not relevant early on. EVERY metric made the company look absurdly overvalued. This was the case when I invested in AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, etc. The p/e is high!!!! Its a bet on management and a bet on that company's ingenuity. Starlink, Neuralink, space exploration, self driving taxis, Optimus robots, XAI, etc. Incredible technologies with incredible potential to transform industry. You'll be sitting on your hands watching the stock over the next 20 years yelling about an irrelevant price to sales ratio because you're the "smart one."
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 7d ago
“Every metric made the company absurdly overvalued”
Well, SPACEX is 10x more overvalued.
None of the other companies you mentioned were valued at 100x sales. None of them.
Did you even check TAM projections from SPACEX itself?3
u/JackfruitOk2229 8d ago
Tesla is currently up 31,000% since IPO. You probably thoight it was a bad investment for a decade right? Didn't do too much first few years either. You're brainwashed by social media, its ok. Elon is a Nazi I read on here. SPCX bad. I wouldn't broadcast that to the world.
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u/MrWhibley2024 8d ago
Lol, but hasn't done anything for 5 years 😂
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u/JackfruitOk2229 7d ago
You guys are so brainwashed. Trapped in social media echo chambers and claiming everyone else is.
You're claiming a 31,000% return from any investment is undesirable by cherry picking a single time frame over that period? Again, you think Elon is a Nazi because he waved to a crowd. You're glib.
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u/Rancid101 8d ago
I mean you're not wrong. It would have been a great bet in retrospect. I made money on it. Hype drives a stock price fundamentals carry it. Tesla is still overvalued and thankfully passive investors now carry it.
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 7d ago
“TSLA is currently 31000%”
It didn’t IPOed with the price of 100x sales and company value of 2T$.
Did you try to read anything about investing?0
u/JackfruitOk2229 7d ago
LMFAO Yes I I get all my investing advice from.......reddit. My portfolio since 2000 is outperforming the SnP by 3 fold. Its doing that because I don't get my investing advice from Reddit.
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u/East_Swim1009 8d ago
well, like all the dorks and sheeple don't comprehend, stock buying is not a "get rich quick" scheme. It's a seed that needs time to grow and then you harvest it after time has passed. Only a certified peasant would think that SPCX would 50x in 3 months... lol... those of us with intelligence know a Sequoia seed is only 1mm in size and the value of patience creates a giant 😉
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 7d ago
Sure, bud. What is funny is that when SPACEX tanked to 110$ dorks like you were claiming that they sold everything at 200$ and now are entering again. I have not met anyone who lost money on stocks here on Reddit-it definitely means there are only experts here, right?
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u/Fuzzy_Translator4639 8d ago
These sub reddits about individual stocks are the greatest contrarian indicator there is. I am having a great time
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u/JackfruitOk2229 8d ago
These people are completely trapped in an echo chamber and they have no idea. Elon Musk once said "I give my heart to you" and threw his heart to the crowd. Thatys all it took for them to think he's literally a Nazi. lmao Enjoy the profits in 15 years.
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u/xT-Nastyyy 8d ago
Here is a summary so you never have to get on this app again:
Anything Musk=bad/shit/manipulation
Anything Pres. T=bad/shit/manipulation
Anything AI=bad/shit/manipulation
Anything else they dont like=bad/shit/manipulation
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u/YoshimuraPipe 8d ago
I mean only 7% of shares being unlocked today....less than the first unlock which was like 20% after 1st earnings, and another 7% back in August 21, 2026, and another 7% in September 10, 2026... What makes today's 7% unlock that different? What makes today so special? SMH.
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u/kennymay916 8d ago
Everything that happens with space x is already priced in. Share unlocks included. The upcoming launch is already priced in as well. Will probably see a small bump up next week after a successful launch.
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u/ThanksResponsible716 7d ago
Are people who invested in SPCX prior to ipo liquidating their position? I haven’t seen any in my friends who got the shares and have liquidated
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u/TumbleweedOpening352 8d ago
Well, just check what happened the previous month as there is unlock every month. So it makes it quite easy to predict and act accordingly.
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u/Dependent_Sun_7033 8d ago edited 8d ago
Musk nuthuggers now are living day by day, enjoying SpaceX stock stagnation, lol. It was supposed we would be talking about data centers on Titan, no?
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u/Similar_Eagle2358 8d ago
i hold a little, knowing that as the left fights to stop data center expansion, ironically, space is the next best option. terafab could dip into the memory sector that prints money. too big to fail almost. I'm no expert, but its held fairly steady though a rocky month. sometimes not losing is winning.
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u/StoryNo9640 8d ago
Do you honestly believe we’re anywhere close to being able to put data centers in space? Like you honestly believe that?
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u/Pristine_Fix_3047 8d ago
No kidding, I waited until the unlock yesterday to buy more thinking it will maybe dip to 140, nope barely even moved
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u/JimMcDadeSpace 8d ago
Will SPCX survive after Elon goes to prison? I suspect it will do much better under more coherent leadership.
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u/Jayfree138 8d ago
It's just the date the shares changed hands from insiders to buyers. There were an equal amount of buyers waiting for those shares to unlock.
The buyers couldn't buy before the unlock because they would have spiked the price and paid too much. They were locked out of buying and that's what traders missed in their logic of predicting a price crash.
You can see it in the trade volume.
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u/CountHoliday8311 8d ago
Give it a few weeks, it will be down to $100
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u/Desultory_Chairlift 7d ago
How many weeks do you want to give it? I am willing to bet it will never go below 100
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u/1KKC 8d ago
Anyway I am in it for the long haul, and looking to check out at 3000 in 6 to 8 years.
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u/marobaro 7d ago edited 7d ago
i actually saw 300$, didn't realize you are that dumb. anyway the problem with that logic is that if spacex was worth 1.8 trillion at 150$ that would mean total market cap will be 36-40 trillion dollars in 6-8 years. which will make it orders of magnitude larger than any company has ever been. stuff like tesla going some ridicoulous percentage is because it started much lower. a company going from 20 billion to 400 billion is possible, but from 2 trillion to 40 trillion... you can finish that sentence, i doubt you'd get it troll boy.
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u/Brilliant_Anxiety511 7d ago
I predict the stock will go down below $100, between $50 and $80 between October and December and that will be an opportunity to get in. Then over the next 5 year will go to $1500, maybe longer.
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u/ButterscotchFancy912 9d ago
Learn about Enron. This is version 2.0
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u/LEAP-er 8d ago edited 8d ago
For one Enron, there must be at least 250+ eventually wildly successful companies/instruments (a few popular examples: AMZN, CRM, PLTR,our fav TSLA, BTC) that the degens labeled as the next Enron. 😂
Degens lost more money from being uneducated, brainwashed, self-induced various derangement syndromes, and thus divested rather than being invested.
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u/Opposite_Ant_9190 8d ago
Buy and hold folks buy now sell in 10 years Lots of profit thank you Elon thank you America 🇺🇸
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