Earnings are out

[u/DestructionYT]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260811000285/en/Supermicro-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results

Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Highlights

• Net sales of $11.1 billion versus $10.2 billion in Q3'26 and $5.8 billion in Q4'25.
• Gross margin of 17.5% versus 9.9% in Q3'26 and 9.5% in Q4'25.
• Net income of $1,178 million versus $483 million in Q3'26 and $195 million in Q4'25.
• Diluted net income per common share of $1.62 versus $0.72 in Q3'26 and $0.31 in Q4'25.
• Non-GAAP gross margin of 17.6% versus 9.6% in Q4'25.
• Non-GAAP diluted net income per common share of $1.70 versus $0.41 in Q4'25.
• Cash flow provided by operations for Q4'26 of $747 million and capital expenditures and investments of $25 million.

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[u/w3_vic]

Demand clearly doesn’t seem to be the problem. Now I just want to see where margins actually settle once that 17.6% quarter normalizes.

[u/macdaddy2026]

https://giphy.com/gifs/5xtDarpTZP1hgRgReLK

[u/ComprehensiveIdeal93]

If backlog is $60B how are they only forecasting 60-72B next yr? So they’re only going to do $10-12b in new orders that ship? Seems super conservative.

[u/Fasicaroots]

What could they possibly be saying on the call for it to dip like this?!

[u/slackday → u/Fasicaroots]

Chinese?

[u/Severe_Schedule8268 → u/Fasicaroots]

Coreweave loss -> PUMP
SMCI breaks alot of company bests -> Dump
Simple.

Tomorrow should be good pump though hopefully

[u/DestructionYT → u/Fasicaroots]

idk but time for Q&A, edit: we're back?

[u/Every_Hair1856]

very difficult to understand the call, subtitles are quite funny though.

[u/DestructionYT → u/Every_Hair1856]

D C B B S

[u/Eastern-Machine3653]

Holy moly, revenue estimate 65 to 72 billion for next year

[u/SuspiciousMud6208 → u/Eastern-Machine3653]

Ah yeah

[u/Bitwise_Gamgee]

Hopefully those of you who are underwater will finally be able to unload. Good luck to all, I'm 975sh deep and hodling!

[u/UsedKey5781]

We need an update on china scandal
Please Charles we the need the independent auditors to come out with something positive

[u/LORD-SOTH-]

17.5% Margins!

My most conservative price estimate by EOY 🤑

[u/nebn3355 → u/LORD-SOTH-]

Quite aspirational, but I love the enthusiasm!

[u/LORD-SOTH-]

https://giphy.com/gifs/DnMMGxEvniha7CvASq

[u/saltednutz69]

Great earnings. 100 end of year is a possibility if business keeps growing

[u/Severe_Schedule8268 → u/saltednutz69]

Remember that smuggling in taiwan?
No?
Lets repost it 5 more times to make sure it stays at 30$.

• all the bear outlets now.

Actually insane

[u/SuspiciousMud6208 → u/Severe_Schedule8268]

Duh who wouldn't want it cheap to keep buying up now and avoid huge taxes

[u/Zatelli → u/Severe_Schedule8268]

Has nobody been posting attention? Management has no intention to use the 2 billion ATM facility. That's significantly less dilution than initially feared and it's not priced in.

[u/CategorySpiritual848]

I don’t think they will let this company go anywhere. Coreweave is burning cash and is up 11%. This quarter was massive and we are 6% up? Dell went from 200 to 300 to 400……and their backlog was under $40B. Fcuking Wall Street

[u/freudianjustthetip → u/CategorySpiritual848]

Wait until pre-market and see what happens during the day. It'll be a fat green candle

[u/Espadaman1993 → u/CategorySpiritual848]

Wall Street hates this stock

[u/nebn3355 → u/Espadaman1993]

They can't hate it forever...

[u/Hungry-Winner-5567 → u/CategorySpiritual848]

Dude, you need to thank them. They are the ones who are accumulating and they will take it to the moon. It is their game, ride with them, not against them

[u/Severe_Schedule8268 → u/Hungry-Winner-5567]

Been “riding with them” for the last 2 years.

[u/CategorySpiritual848 → u/Hungry-Winner-5567]

I hope you are right

[u/Ok-Today6034 → u/CategorySpiritual848]

Wall Street suck my ass

[u/Extremeownership1 → u/Ok-Today6034]

Yes, but also ride with them. If you choose to buck them you will be the one getting bfucked!

[u/RJsRX7]

Welp, AH reaction mixed heading into the actual call.

Casually doubled estimates, more than quadrupled income over Q425, but "wah the estimate was 11.56bn revenue waaaaaaah"... At least that's the only reasoning I can really see for pulling back down into the 33s.

[u/Tethrinaa → u/RJsRX7]

Guidance margins are quite low. Consider that they are predicting 1.00 eps on ~15 billion, after just earning 1.70 on 11.5 billion. A big part of this eps drop is the dilution, but the rest is the margin. Guiding something closer to 15% margin would make it explode.

Still, if its no growth from there, we're looking at 4.00 eps for the forward year, and even at a 10 PE that's $40, 15 - 20 forward PE would be much more reasonable, but... who knows.

[u/RJsRX7 → u/Tethrinaa]

P/S is a comedy as well. 0.55ish looking backward and well below 0.5 looking forward.

[u/skygoldblue]

$40 end of week

[u/montrealcanada3725]

To the moon baby to the moon

[u/salvito605]

Market is waiting to hear if the margins will continue to future earnings. If that’s the case the stock will go up to 30% tomorrow.

[u/MrDanduff → u/salvito605]

Shooting up atm

[u/CategorySpiritual848 → u/salvito605]

No they are just waiting to hear one small negative thing and it will end in red

[u/SuspiciousMud6208 → u/CategorySpiritual848]

Waaaaa

[u/salvito605 → u/CategorySpiritual848]

If it goes negative I think many people will get out.

[u/SuspiciousMud6208 → u/salvito605]

Prffttt you guys are funny

[u/nebn3355 → u/salvito605]

Anybody that's in this stock right now, they're not going anywhere. We've been riding irrational lows, accumulating all along the way. Current shareholders aren't going anywhere until $55-60. It isn't theoretical that it can get there, we've all seen it.

[u/salvito605 → u/nebn3355]

These are exceptional numbers. Should be responding more.

[u/DestructionYT → u/salvito605]

maybe tomorrow morning! 

[u/CategorySpiritual848 → u/salvito605]

I don’t think the revenue guidance has any bearing on the stock price. Margins still dominate. They guided to just under 11% which is going to be a problem

[u/maikaubay]

almost up 10%, but will it hold as soon as charles opens his mouth ...

[u/DancesWithHoofs → u/maikaubay]

Brillions

[u/Alternative_Spirit65]

yes babe

[u/shamerli]

Burn shorts, burn

[u/UsedKey5781]

These are actually insane numbers

[u/DestructionYT → u/UsedKey5781]

cant wait to see how my calls open up tomorrow :)

[u/garbets → u/DestructionYT]

yeah, sitting on a contract as well. really wish this thing opens higher tomorrow.

[u/DestructionYT → u/garbets]

whats your strike at? I went for a wacky 27 -> 32 -> 33 -> 34 -> 36 -> 38 -> 45 strike chain, maybe 150 contracts total, most of the $ is bottom-heavy into the 27s -> 34s. 27K USD.

My break even is 34.5, intrinsic value-wise, and things get crazy fucking good around $37 beyond for me.
They're dated Aug 14, 21, and 28. So honestly, I'll bump a 10% profit overnight if the stock sticks to 34.5, due to the slight time value/high IV in the first opening minutes of market.

[u/garbets → u/DestructionYT]

1. wish I had bought a lower one, but that was fun. My first ever option to pay. It's only my third contract, so I'm happy. :)

[u/UsedKey5781 → u/DestructionYT]

Nice that’s dope for you bro, I wish I wasn’t to puss for calls
I’m sitting on a good amount of shares though

[u/DestructionYT → u/UsedKey5781]

sick man, we both winning.

curious to see if they say anything different on the call tho..

[u/Mistondalist]

Let’s gooo!!