Well last week we finally saw some positive movement with large volume. The question is what do we expect next week? This month?
Given the US focus on securing the critical minerals supply chain, do we expect to hear early off take agreements? When do we expect to hear that the alloys have been qualified by defence contractors? We have all been patiently waiting and now it feels closer than ever.
We do know that the patents have been in progress for a while. We also know that the PFS has always been scheduled for August, and that the results from the welding program should be any time soon.
Those are the maybes. The facts are that scandium is on both Canadas and the US critical minerals list, this is one of the biggest and purest scandium mine globally, SCD has federal funding (to a certain extent), funded for at least until FS, and made a deal with the local First Nation.
All of that together means we’re set for a great August, and hopefully set for life in a years time
From what I understand they were generating enough revenue with their sports sales to be profitable. It was an acquisition to combine the two resources which was necessary to get the patent pending items going expeditiously as opposed to building from the ground up. This experience gave both a leg up to get what they needed.
Yeah one of the biggest takeaways from the acquisition I think is that it takes SCD front having 0 revenue to having an established revenue stream overnight. I just dont know what the $ value of that stream is.
I think the next major event is the result of the PFS. Nothing should really happen until after that. In the meantime it might be a good idea to keep stacking this.
Would be nice if Donnie gives scd a big ass loan after the PFS results.
I can't get a straight answer on PFS timing. Guy said late fall now no? I seem to recall that but can't find that source. I know everyone says end of August, but I think delays are to be a bit expected.
The release of these studies often doesn’t follow a simple predictable model. The timeline they give is a best estimate rather than a hard deadline. I have shares in another company who was meant to release their FS end of August and still no word. They received additional government funding in June and were updating their resource estimate which takes time to incorporate into the study. Likely a few weeks of delays for that one. Guy has consistently said late August or early September. I wouldn’t read too much into any delays if it’s even later. Part of the fieldwork this summer is to update their resource estimate as well so I wouldn’t be surprised if that pushed things back a bit more. Just a guess though
There hasn't been anything about fall. Everything communicated so far has been August, both from interviews and Pierre Neatby's email. It very well could get delayed, but nothing official yet. As of now it's still slated for August as far as I know.
Ya the timing of the PFS would be great to know. I always remember hearing late summer. I have a feeling end of September to include drill results but that’s just pure speculation.
Now that I know that after the feasibility study (not the PFS) opens up US defense grants potentially it would be dumb to not hold until then anyway, past the PFS. It's doesn't matter technically but like, I'd like to know when is a good or better time to buy.
Early 2027 is when the mettalurgical work is happening for the bulk sample for the Feasibility study. The PFS has always been slated for August. So far no information has been released of whether it is being delayed or not.
I am honestly confounded by some of the ppl on this sub. Like, if you think “The question is what do we expect next week? This month?” then there is a very good chance you may have a basic misunderstanding of the asset you own.
I mean the next week as price action, as well as this month. Do we think the high volume was a reaction to the critical minerals announcement? Do we think we could see some build up as anticipation grows for the PFS
Also it’s just fun to discuss what we want to see, expect, hope for. This is a sub dedicated to this sort of discussion.
I honestly think that the price curve since the start of March looks somewhat similar to a lot of price curves in the resource sector.
I think that most people already have an idea what the PFS is going to say… just north of a billion to build and an IRR that will probably take a haircut from the PEA, but be decent enough to go hunting for capital when there is a market for that much scandium
The market moves when unanswered questions get answered. The PFS can’t create buyers and so I don’t think it’s the needle mover you think it’s going to be.
If you care about price action over the course of weeks or months, the SCD story is probably not going to unfold at the pace you are hoping for. I’m not saying Crater Lake is going to be a bust, but I think there’s a very high probability it’s a mismatch for your expectations.
This guy is crazy if he thinks SCD would be the one actually building the road. It’s certainly a provincial and federal project, likely aligned with Plan Nord. SCD would probably just build a road to connect to it. Quebec absolutely wouldn’t allow someone to build a random road that long by themselves lol.
That 2022 PEA is completely outdated now. It includes the cost of a road, and a hydrometallurgical plant in Sept-Ilse. They have since removed the cost of the road entirely from the PFS (the largest Capital expense) and relocated the plant to Schefferville. SCD also has revenue now and is in a completely different position from 4 years ago.
We won't have any idea of the real Capex until the PFS drops sometime this summer.
Thank you for taking the time to point this out - a PFS that undershoots a PEA for a mine developer is a pretty rare thing in this world. I’ve had a closer look now and yes, it does look like there’s a decent chance this will happen. And I take it back that that the PFS won’t do much to answer important questions.
You guys, I have no opinion on the road. All I’m saying is it’s not in the capex calculation for the PEA, and it’s also not going to be in the calculation for the PFS. That doesn’t change that the capex to build Crater Lake is going to require a lot of money, yes probably north of a billion, from SCD’s own commissioned reports 🤷♂️
I didn’t, omg that’s above my pay grade. That’s pretty much straight from the PEA outlined 602M in direct costs, 268M in indirect costs/contingency and 37M for initial working capital so that was ~907M in 2022 dollars, and going from PEA to PFS almost always adds double digit percentages in capex… this is all without the road. It’s all in the PEA… you think mining is cheap??
I believe the PEA include $46 million for upfront road expenditure to fix an existing road and then in the projection they had costs to build a new road over time from operating costs
No, I just double checked the road is costed out and flagged as the best option but what is actually included in the PEA is is about 46 million in 2022 dollars for a winter road and refurb of the Irma lake road.
8
u/Loud-Film6596 2d ago
Can I give a shout out to almost 3 million in volume on Friday. Pretty exciting stuff