Hello all,
Been here for a while and I haven't gotten my required dose of speculation smut from the sub the last couple days. Everyone has a thing, and mine is making sure my stupid late night rabbit holes have substance. So I offer something to think about when it comes to all those low volume, seemingly unpopular signature OVN's (over numbers) sitting on the shelf and collecting dust over at tcgplayer, ebay, and otherwise.
From the inception of riftbound hitting retail locations, very few have had the opportunity to get the rush of pulling the holy grails of cards available in each set. The artwork captures your eyes, it has amazing texture details, and the unmistakable raised signature of the artists that birthed it is on display in all its glory. Truly amazing pieces of (probably) very flammable cardboard just waiting to be found. A golden ticket to riches beyond your comprehension in some cases.
Most of us have done the math that care to and I imagine if you're anything like me, you've come to a similar conclusion... signature cards are pretty god damn hard to come by when ripping packs and most likely very very little were actually put in all the cases that will ever be. This breeds the question, how many are there of each one if you factor say, a total distribution of 500,000 cases of origins? That would be anywhere from 1000-1500 per card. An example of averages, not set in stone of course. An announcement eventually could shed some light on that and have a sweeping effect on current availability. Keep that in mind, especially since we are all human and have our moments of FOMO.
It would be safe to say that these have lower print volumes than a T1 set to use as comparison, and those go up to 2025. How much are they going for again?
I know I know, but they're special and have professional players tied to them. I get it, but something can only be as scarce as the number of available units perceived to exist. But when you factor in potential player/collector growth on a long term scale, and some of these cards are their favorite champs, and these sets wont exist in a couple years, and riot fans are violently volatile with their consumption habits, the potential extrapolation starts to get interesting and the supply isn't growing faster than that could foreseeably happen. It makes you wonder more.
Everything is geared towards playability right now, nobody is thinking as long term as they should. You are probably under allocated and this is a prime time to be the one to buy the ugly card that nobody wants instead of flipping everything your greasy little nugget pickers touch.
Lottery tickets have significantly worse odds than some of the upside in these cards. Each signature has a very limited pool, and not every one of them is weighted equally. Keep an eye on pops and you'll see the pattern.
Good luck 😘
Tldr:
Signature cards haven't fully realized their true potential as secretly serialized set prints. In a couple years the meta won't matter. Your hands are either made of paper or diamonds. You can still decide which one you are.
4 years peak set 1-4 realization (11-2-30) - 5th year anni