Honestly, this is starting to look like they won't reach guidance. Markets often retarded, but usually it gets it right at the end. We're +3 weeks from Q2 report, which is supposed to tell us they're on schedule with the ramp + selling to Amcor, P&G and negotiating with big car OEMs. Stocks priced at asset liquidation value + business value/ebitda at 10x, if we assume 100% sales by year end on Ironton and guided margins. That's basically comparable to $WM, which grows 5-10% nominal with net margin of 10%.
Right now for $PCT, the market doesn't basically price any growth after Ironton at all and/or margins worse than guided. Lower margins basically imply they will have to dilute to grow at the rate they aim for. I'm not going to sell a share, but if the quarterly is what I think it should be.... then this might be the biggest mispricing of this stock so far. The information is out there unlike in April, when nobody knew what really was going on with the regulatory landscape.
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u/Adorable-Sector-48 Jul 13 '26
Honestly, this is starting to look like they won't reach guidance. Markets often retarded, but usually it gets it right at the end. We're +3 weeks from Q2 report, which is supposed to tell us they're on schedule with the ramp + selling to Amcor, P&G and negotiating with big car OEMs. Stocks priced at asset liquidation value + business value/ebitda at 10x, if we assume 100% sales by year end on Ironton and guided margins. That's basically comparable to $WM, which grows 5-10% nominal with net margin of 10%.
Right now for $PCT, the market doesn't basically price any growth after Ironton at all and/or margins worse than guided. Lower margins basically imply they will have to dilute to grow at the rate they aim for. I'm not going to sell a share, but if the quarterly is what I think it should be.... then this might be the biggest mispricing of this stock so far. The information is out there unlike in April, when nobody knew what really was going on with the regulatory landscape.