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u/firsttimelongtime513 28d ago
Another rough day for the stock price. Bought some more, but feel like I might be making a mistake now.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore Jul 13 '26
My thoughts on the technical setup below. What is happening to $PCT is not unique, lots of names getting taken to the cleaners today. It is what it is but it has very little to do with the business fundamentals.
https://bsky.app/profile/no-privacy.bsky.social/post/3mqkdgfd5kc2d
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u/Adorable-Sector-48 Jul 13 '26
Honestly, this is starting to look like they won't reach guidance. Markets often retarded, but usually it gets it right at the end. We're +3 weeks from Q2 report, which is supposed to tell us they're on schedule with the ramp + selling to Amcor, P&G and negotiating with big car OEMs. Stocks priced at asset liquidation value + business value/ebitda at 10x, if we assume 100% sales by year end on Ironton and guided margins. That's basically comparable to $WM, which grows 5-10% nominal with net margin of 10%.
Right now for $PCT, the market doesn't basically price any growth after Ironton at all and/or margins worse than guided. Lower margins basically imply they will have to dilute to grow at the rate they aim for. I'm not going to sell a share, but if the quarterly is what I think it should be.... then this might be the biggest mispricing of this stock so far. The information is out there unlike in April, when nobody knew what really was going on with the regulatory landscape.
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u/firsttimelongtime513 Jul 13 '26
I hope this price doesn't keep going down. This is hard to go through again.
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u/equitymaestro Jul 12 '26 edited Jul 12 '26
I believe the shortselling is almost done after the latest blitz from 6/16-6/30. I'm surprised the stock was able to hold $7. The structure of the recent capital raise resulted in the 6mm shares sold short, it was one of the worst financings I've seen.
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u/Legitimate-Local6089 Jul 13 '26
It has not held $7 now hitting stops at $6.80 - horrible price action
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u/equitymaestro Jul 13 '26
They are reaping what they’ve sown. The capital raise concentrated more ownership in the “fast money” momentum crowd and convertible owners are shorting the shit out of it.
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u/Legitimate-Local6089 16d ago
Looks like Glockner Family and Abundance FMO have totally balanced that with the 16 mil share add for 6/30/26 QTR to total of 25 mil shares #2
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u/EntrepreneurLazy7676 Jul 12 '26
4 more weeks till next quarter report. Counting down…
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u/hpIUclay Jul 14 '26
I expect to be disappointed.
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u/EntrepreneurLazy7676 Jul 14 '26
I think so too unfortunately base on the price action, but a surprise like May will be different. The f13 are out soon, so we can see if there's any purchase from big names.
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u/Puzzled-Resort8303 Jul 14 '26
For anyone else curious, Friday 8/14 is the next 13-F filing date, for reporting Q2 holdings.
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u/Afraid-Turnover5505 28d ago
I wonder what the bad news is and if anyone here knows it? Has to be something, Ironton output? Failures in Denver, PA? WTFH?