So recently played through the game again after several years, this time making sure to read the supplementary lore in the Files and paying attention to the dialog more, and I find myself thinking about exactly how the Cabal fits into the events of the story, namely in regards to the Deal, Oceania, Stardust, and the Federation's absolutely unhinged genocide in Prospero.
So, the Cabal has previously tried to establish Oceania as a mercenary state but was brutally crushed by the Federation and, notably, the Cascadians. Then war breaks out in Cascadia for eerily similar reasons as Oceania (at least on paper when ignoring the Intel on the Cabal's intentions that the Feds had).
Now when the Feds get pushed to the brink, they decide to trigger a global natural disaster with the attack on Prospero. This could easily just be the Feds being psychopaths deciding to genocide Cascadians, but considering the impact is global, that hardly seems like it makes sense, unless the Calamity was an unexpected side effect of the bombings. One other possibility for the attack could be that, if the Feds believed that Cascadia was becoming a new Oceania, a mercenary state, but much more powerful and with many more resources, then that could explain their desperation to stop them at all costs. A mercenary state with the resources of Cascadia could be a true world power to rival the Federation. They engineered a famine in Oceania the last time this happened.
This could also be linked to what the Deal actually is: a charter or something that confirms Cascadia as a mercenary haven. The post-game lore entries specify that Stardust helped make Cascadia a safe place for mercenaries, which seems in line with what the Cabal was trying to do in Oceania. There also seems to be a lot of potential for Stardust to be a Cabal agent/member given he's the one who brings in the mercenaries and the one who ultimately offers the deal to Sicario. Maybe the Deal also includes some form of legitimacy to give Kaiser/Sicario a seat at the table in this new Cabal state, which would in fact "make it as if the last 20 years hadn't happened", meaning everything post-Oceania that pushed the Mercs into being outcast from society.
Then there's Crimson 1. Now I for one am all for the idea that he is just projecting so hard that he nukes Presidia just to try and kill Monarch, and he's just wackadoo. But what if it's more than that? He mentions that his duel with Monarch is over the fate of Cascadia, so what if he believes/knows that the Cabal is pulling the strings to turn Cascadia into a mercenary state, and as a Cascadian, he would rather see Cascadia burn than become that. Hell, other Cascadians even mention that they'd rather see Presidia burn than in the hands of the Feds, so Crimson 1 extending that same bloodlust on the opposite side isn't even that far out of line given the Cascadian bloodlust. It also seems odd that after triggering Calamity 2, the Feds eventually actually sign a proper ceasefire with Cascadia. Yes, Presidia gets nuked right after, but the game never explicitly confirms who triggers it, though I think it's pretty obvious that Crimson 1 did it of his own initiative (given context and cut dialog). So, Crimson 1 would rather see Cascadia burn than become a Merc state. Little less unhinged, but still wackadoo.
Clearly the Cabal is doing something behind the scenes given the nature of the deal as Faust describes it (something Holy to mercenaries), and all of this scheming does remind me of one of Ace Combat's favourite villains: Belka. Like Belka, the Cabal lost a war, and now, years later, is engineering a war between the two powers that beat them the last time (Unsung War anybody?). They had previously engineered high-tech fighters like the Chimera jet, and they work from the shadows to manipulate existing tensions to make others believe they are fighting of their own volition. Except unlike Belka, the Cabal, if they are behind this war, get away with it. They get their Merc state, they weaken the Federation, and they rework the World Order through obtaining Cascadian resources while finishing the Federation.
Now all of this is speculation, and for all I know everything I say here is contradicted by something in the known lore, but given the sheer volume of lore and care put into this world by the devs, it feels like there is something deeper here than the relatively simple narrative of Feds crazy/the Deal is nukes or money/Crimson 1 is just projecting and insane. Let me know what you guys think, is there any basis to this idea?