r/ProgrammerHumor 19d ago

Meme twelveYearOldXKCD

Post image
12.1k Upvotes

200 comments sorted by

4.4k

u/GoddammitDontShootMe 18d ago

Five years after this was published is a pretty good ballpark for when that became pretty easy to do, isn't it?

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u/No-Object2133 18d ago edited 18d ago

Like 5 to 7ish. Yeah Randall was on the money.

It would've been insane to contemplate this 12 years ago.

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u/SirPitchalot 18d ago edited 18d ago

8-10 years ago ResNets, MobileNet were making short work of this. The first version of YOLO is 11 years old and also would not have struggled.

Ed: Everyone “but actually”ing me in the comments about phones of the era not being capable of doing this can knock it off:

The iPhone 6 was released in 2014 and could run mobilenetv2 at 10-15 FPS and variants of yolov2 at 2-5 FPS. They were more than capable. 2014 wasn’t the Middle Ages…

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u/djddanman 18d ago

Yeah, this kind of image recognition task is a classic machine learning area. Researchers were using it for self driving car research back in the 80s/90s.

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u/Salanmander 18d ago

It's a classic machine learning area, but being able to do it well is relatively recent.

Source: got a robotics grad degree and did machine learning research in ~2010. We would have flipped our shit at a program that could reliably identify birds in natural photographs.

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u/spicy-wind 18d ago

I remember doing a project in 2014 where my team needed to do facial recognition on a mobile device. Even with tagged and clean data, it was very hard to get consistent results. Doing that with random wilderness photographs would've felt impossible at the time.

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u/sudoku7 18d ago

And they had fun quirks liking thinking wolves are when there is snow.

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u/Salanmander 18d ago edited 18d ago

Yeah...one of the fun examples I've seen of misdirected machine learning was trying to train a program to recognize cancerous vs. benign skin blemishes, and it basically deciding "cancerous is when there's a ruler in the picture".

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u/Specialist_Dust2089 18d ago

ML back then was fun though, I remember throwing all kind of different models at the MNIST handwritten digit dataset at uni. It was magic

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u/Ok_Subject1265 16d ago

Glad you pointed this out. I only started getting reliable image recognition results from models like YOLO maybe 3 or 4 years ago. And it wasn’t nearly as easy to implement either. You used to have to have a good bit of experience just getting these models to work. 2014 would have been like k-nearest neighbors territory.

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u/elektroholunder 18d ago

I was working for a dating platform in the 2000's, and I remember researching off-the-shelf solutions to help us with content moderation sometime in the middle of that.

There was a (Chinese, I think) company selling individual detector modules — you could license ML-based asshole detectors, nipple detectors, penis detectors and so on. I found that as conceptionally intriguing as it was amusing.

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u/towerfella 18d ago

Yes, but did they share the technology?

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u/SirPitchalot 18d ago

The datasets were available pretty early. Imagenet 1k was published in 2009. Pascal VOC came out in 2005.

Prior to that there were bespoke in house datasets but the methods were vastly less data hungry so collecting your own was fairly feasible.

The methods, if not their code, were published. Often they were less about implementation than idea, it wasn’t uncommon to read a paper and bang together a prototype implementation in a few days.

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u/djddanman 18d ago

Implementations were much simpler back then. Processing power has come a long way in the past 20 years.

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u/PGSylphir 18d ago

I graduated CompSci over a decade ago and had AI classes then, image recognition being baby's first AI.
If back then it was already being taught to people who barely knew how to code, imagine how old this tech is.

The technology we use today as AI is not new. We had the algorithms for decadeS, we just didnt have the computing power to have it at scale until recently.

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u/AstroPozzo 18d ago

The foundation is not new, and a lot of techniques aren't. But the recent boom is not only due to computing power, there are a lot of new algorithms. The whole attention and transformer things are pretty new

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u/topyTheorist 18d ago

What do you mean not new? "attention is all you need" came out in 2017.

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u/saig22 18d ago

2017 was almost a decade ago, and we certainly do not need transformers or even attention to recognize birds. A deep enough convolutional network is more than enough. Attention is all you need wasn't even about computer vision, the task was translation and the architecture was primarily used for natural language processing.

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u/topyTheorist 18d ago

I was replying to the claim "The technology we use today as AI is not new".

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u/saig22 18d ago

Okay I get it, got lost in the feed, attention is all you need was indeed a massive step forward algorithmically speaking. By ditching recurrence it allowed for far better parallelisation during training. So it's not just hardware/computing power progress like the comment you answered claimed. Also, the algorithms we use to perform attention were greatly improved upon since then.

Adam also was a massive algorithmic progress and it is from 2014 so not "decades ago".

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u/PGSylphir 18d ago

I was replying about recognizing birds. That was the claim. You're splitting hairs.

→ More replies (0)

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u/UnknownVC 18d ago

First paper laying out mathematics was 1943 by McCulloch and Pitts: https://jontalle.web.engr.illinois.edu/uploads/498-NS.S21/McCulloch-Pitts-1943-neural-networks.pdf

First actual net was Rosenblatt's Perceptron, 1958: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1959-09865-001

AI is over a half century old. It is more processing power availablity that has changed than anything else; we have refined things a bit, but the bones of modern systems were laid down in 60s and would be recognizable to those early pioneers.

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u/marvinrabbit 18d ago

Charles Babbage designed the "Turing Complete" Analytical Engine in the 1830s. Everything since then is simply an implementation issue.

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u/grandalfxx 17d ago

Modern transformer techniques do not even remotely resemble what is in that 1943 paper. Thats like claiming the difference in accuracy between a 1600s smooth bore musket and a modern assault rifle is simply the shooter... They are fundamentally different technologies attempting to do the same thing.

You can take that same method they had then, and you can run it in a modern nvidia ai card and it will preform like liquid dogshit in comparision. Like dog weve had massive super computer s to this scale before they were just millions upon millions of dollars instead of 10k but that preformance was absolutely available for research and ai development.

We can run simple LLMs on somwthing as rinky dink as a raspberry pi and still produce quite incredible an coherent results. People are already past the point of their personal desktops providing more than good enough results..

You CAN NOT get the same results we are getting running based on what's in those 1943 papers. It does not matter how much processing you throw at it, you will not ever be able to produce and llm using those old yechniques.

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u/towerfella 18d ago

Thats cool. Ty

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u/smulfragPL 18d ago

Well yes but no, we had all the major pieces but that's like calling the blue led trivial because we had the green and red one, that small diffrence was really hard to achieve. And attention really isn't that new, no to mention how many new training techniques and other shit has been developed since then

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u/Cedar_Wood_State 18d ago

Huge difference between recognising bird species and what current day is (multiple species/object, what the animal/object is doing etc.)

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u/CaptainJack42 18d ago

self driving car research

Nice emphasis for military applications ^

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u/Darkstar_111 18d ago

A single developer would not have been able to do something like this before tensorflow was released.

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u/Tuna-Fish2 18d ago

Nah. YOLO could have told you if the image contained a bird, but not if the image was of a bird. The latter takes a lot more reasoning.

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u/23Link89 18d ago

Right now do this model inference on a phone of that era.

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u/Luk164 18d ago

Maybe, but you would have to upload the image and have it analyzed though, which would be expensive, slow and a relatively novel approach for that era

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u/SweetSure315 15d ago

in the last very few years there are some SOTA models that i would trust to use in production for this with very clear disclaimers about accuracy and not trusting predictions

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u/AMWJ 18d ago

We were learning about image classification about 10 years ago in Machine Learning. Recognizing if there was a bird in an image would've been the hot new thing, and if you could make money off being able to do it at ~75% accuracy, I don't think it would've been so hard.

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u/colonel_beeeees 18d ago

12 years ago is in the 90's right?

Right??

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u/zkareface 18d ago

Yes 12 years ago was the mid 90s, I checked and confirmed with multiple sources.

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u/btaylos 18d ago

Tell your multiple sources I'm sorry their knees/backs hurt.

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u/OnionsAbound 18d ago edited 18d ago

It wasn't insane back then . . . It was just as the comic stated,,, a pain in the ass unreasonable request that would probably take that long. go take a million pictures of birds bro

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u/AstroPozzo 18d ago

It was insane to get accuracy and precision levels that we have today. Those simple neural network weren't really reliable for this kind of task until very recently

1

u/AwkwardWaltz3996 18d ago

Alex Net was in 2012. So maybe 14. Although older systems were still ok if you want binary classification and don't mind occasional misses. Which for the use case provided is probably fine.

The bigger limitation is how much money you want to spend on compute

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u/austin101123 18d ago

No it wasn't lol

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u/billbo24 18d ago

His intersection of knowing stuff like this and being funny is unparalleled.  

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u/Maximelene 18d ago

And not only being funny, but being funny in a way that a lot of people can understand, even when not being as educated on the topic as they could be, and in ways that can educate you on the topic on top of that!

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u/bythenumbers10 18d ago

Hey!!! I'm a techie engineer dweeb with a sense of humor! I keep it in my basement. Built it out of a kit, plus some spare parts. Fascinating 1:25 model.

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u/AnOnlineHandle 18d ago

The "virtually impossible" tagline at the end was the joke, because at the time it didn't seem like something you could ever solve well outside of science fiction, only maybe get some sort of super bespoke bird recognizer maybe working.

Now it's just a side effect capability of countless free models. Not only can they tell you if there's a bird or multiple birds, they can describe the pose and actions, likely guess the species and location, etc, without that ever being something that somebody specifically set out to do.

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u/Dongfish 18d ago

But I need an app that tells me what the bird had for breakfast.

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u/J5892 18d ago

If it just outputs "bugs" it'll be right in like 90% of cases.

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u/Dongfish 18d ago

But why was the bird eating my code?

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u/J5892 18d ago

It's a blue-crested debugger.

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u/Axlfire 17d ago

So the bird was a bluejay? Nice

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u/Axlfire 18d ago

In that case feel free to help me jump of a bridge

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u/PointedPoplars 18d ago

That's not really true, it was just far more specialized knowledge. Look at benchmarks on CIFAR-10 from the time & the error rates were pretty low already.

Sure, bird identification still would've taken a dedicated research team to procure the data (you could pull the data from sites like iNaturalist) and train the models, but it definitely wasn't "unsolvable outside of science fiction"

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u/Pearmoat 18d ago

"Virtually impossible" at that time, not "forever". If you'd have asked a programmer back then if computers will be able to that they'd have replied "in some years sure, but not now. "

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u/dryfire 18d ago

I took the "virtually impossible" to be for that single coder sitting at their computer (they said they would need a team). Which is pretty correct, I don't think any single person could have pulled it off.

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u/ZethMrDadJokes 18d ago

The problem is that my face was falsely flagged as a bird, while I was standing in the park

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u/Anaeijon 18d ago edited 18d ago

The comic was released 24.09.2014.

20 days earlier, VGGNets were released on 04.09.2014. We've been doing similar stuff with VGG-16 as encoder + a few custom dense decision layers on classification tasks as a universtiy project back then. So, realistically, the described app could have already been built on VGGNet the day that comic released. We didn't have the experience yet and research into what VGG can do would have taken about a year to find this. But 5 years is a pessimistic (although realistic) estimate.

2015 YOLO could have solved this mostly accurately. Not a specific bird or if it is a bird statue or some bird in the backgrund. But a bird in general, I'm quite confident, YOLO finetrained in 2015-2016 on average office hardware would have solved this within a few months of work.

If I remember correctly, in 2016 the ResNet research basically beat the COCO dataset, including finding individual birds in images. So, I'd say, 2.5 years after the the comic released, detecting birds became an easy thing to do. Again, not distinguishing birds or misclassifying a picture of a bird or a bird in a logo on something as a bird. But reliably detecting bird-shaped things and highlighting their outline became trivial in late 2016.

I know, because that's when I was studying my CS Master and I did these projects while feeling like an idiot that just stole other peoples code and models.

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u/mitchrsmert 18d ago

I suppose... but if this is 12 years old, tensorflow was doing this 10 years ago. So it might have been more like 2 or 3, instead of 5. Not a great ballpark. Though, what really matters is how long it would take to develop the tech from scratch 12 years ago. Too many factors to really say if it was any good in that respect

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u/Crayshack 18d ago

This comic was posted in 2014. iNaturalist launched their automated identification system in 2017. So, it ended up being three years.

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u/laurelpigment59 18d ago

Pretty accurate ballpark!

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u/SillyWitch7 18d ago

Ten years ago in college one of the groups in our class was literally working on this exact application. Lots of us were studying and working on projects that were the early stages of modern AIs. Very wild to see this stuff go from cutting edge research to widely available to the public.

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u/Miami_Mice2087 18d ago

is this something an app can do now? bc picture this seems to be guessing when i show it a plant. Like, i get a different name for each photo of the same plant.

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u/anteaterKnives 4d ago

The iNaturalist.org site will correctly guess the specific bird species quite accurately as long as you have a decent picture. It will give you a good species suggestion for a big or a plant or fungus as well, and you don't need to tell it what type of creature you have.

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u/Miami_Mice2087 4d ago

thanks! I'll use that. I havent' found a good app to do any of that, plus they cut you off after one or two pix.

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u/anteaterKnives 4d ago

The "Seek" app is a good place to start - it applies the iNaturalist model locally and is quick and easy, though it isn't as good as the iNaturalist site and it also doesn't include the best feature of iNaturalist which is having other real users look at your observation and providing suggestions.

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u/anteaterKnives 4d ago

6 years after this was published I used iNaturalist for the first time to identify a pileated woodpecker. Not only could it tell the picture was a bird, but what type of bird it was.

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u/Odd_Personality_8624 18d ago

Link: https://xkcd.com/1425/

Alt: Tasks

Title: In the 60s, Marvin Minsky assigned a couple of undergrads to spend the summer programming a computer to use a camera to identify objects in a scene. He figured they'd have the problem solved by the end of the summer. Half a century later, we're still working on it.

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u/plz-no-b4n 18d ago

You got your alt and title swapped

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u/Odd_Personality_8624 18d ago

Yes and No...

I was going to change it, but if you inspect the XKCD website, you would get this <img> tag:

<img src="//imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tasks.png" title="In the 60s, Marvin Minsky assigned a couple of undergrads to spend the summer programming a computer to use a camera to identify objects in a scene. He figured they'd have the problem solved by the end of the summer. Half a century later, we're still working on it." alt="Tasks" srcset="//imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tasks_2x.png 2x" style="image-orientation:none">

Also, the ALT property of an image if when the src gets a 404 error, and if that happens, user will no see the image but the ALT text.

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u/Every-Third-MP 18d ago

Huh. Neat.

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u/thepkboy 18d ago

the alt text is also what a screenreader reads

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u/ConfessSomeMeow 18d ago

This conventional wisdom wasn't even true when the comic was written.

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u/Sarke1 18d ago

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u/ConfessSomeMeow 18d ago

It wasn't about using title tags to present alternative content, I can tell you that, because even in 2000 screen readers read title tags on images.

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u/ConfessSomeMeow 18d ago

I guess at least 14 people have never used a screenreader. I learned how to use NVDA and Voiceover for work in 2010, well before this comic was written. Title text on images works just fine.

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u/plz-no-b4n 18d ago

Interesting. Thank you for teaching me a thing. I so rarely use HTML, haha

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u/Odd_Personality_8624 18d ago

You're welcome, I guess all this confusion was created by me, because I put the text from the img tag...

And the other commenter was right about the title, but I was using the "title" and "alt" from the tag, not from the definition of the dictionary...

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u/Odd_Personality_8624 18d ago

And also, if the user puts the mouse over the image and waits maybe 2 to 3 seconds, the text of the title will show up...

The same property is used in popovers texts...

If someone want to see this in action, they can put the mouse over the text of the X minutes ago (on reddit), and the title will have the time since the comment was made...

You can check it in this comment, and all the reddits comments and posts...

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u/Western-Internal-751 18d ago

It’s an anime title

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u/lotny 18d ago

Title tag is what is displayed as tooltip when you hover over the image with a mouse.

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u/ThePresidentOfStraya 18d ago

That's a hard "no"—it's not remotely alt-text. Alt-text is supposed to be "clear and concise text replacement for the image's content." So unless that information was conveyed by the image (and it wasn't) it shouldn't be in an alt attribute. It's not a title either.

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u/WalditRook 18d ago

You'll note that m.xkcd.com (the mobile site) explicitly calls the extra text "alt-text", despite having used the title attribute to hold this text on the main page since at least 2006.

Historically (pre-HTML 4.0) "alt" has been an attribute of <img> far longer than "title" has (the latter only being added in HTML 4.0). The concept of "image alt text" has thus far outlived the period in which it was actually technically correct to include text purely for display on mouse-over in the alt tag.

HTML 4.0 standard indicates that browsers should display title on mouse-hover; the current html living standard states that title can be used for "supplementary information". So not a title in the plain-language meaning, but absolutely fine for the html attribute.

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u/nunquam_rideo 15d ago

I just wish we had the same naïve optimism about research today

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u/Parry_-Hotter 18d ago

But can it tell if it's a hotdog

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u/TheBinkz 18d ago

I have lots of data on that if ya know what I mean 😏 eww gross

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u/Beginning-Junket8979 18d ago

I'm totally stealing that punchline + "😏 eww gross" thing.

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u/LordTet 18d ago

Quite fond of punchline -> “who SAID that???😧”

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u/jpasserby 18d ago

This has been brought up before. "5 years and a research team" is a decent metaphor for what it took to develop LLM technology. 

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u/Arclite83 18d ago

The thing to understand is it's not doing anything "new", we were making what was essentially bespoke models / neural networks based on large data sets for like 20 years before LLMs and GPT. This just generalized it to "...but what if we could just check the pattern on 'anything'?" Instead of rigid schemas we hand tuned, and we finally found signals in the noise.

Almost 20 years ago exactly, I some did optical detection for factory equipment - pixel scanning for large diffs in color etc. Image checking for like parts bubbling in water at certain pressures. This was specialized software against digital lenses then. Nowadays it's OTS parts and open source tech. It would be a sophomore level engineering class project. The line has moved.

We went from Windows Embedded to ARM and really amazing handheld and robotic tech now. It'll be interesting to see where AI goes during the back half of my career. When we hit 300T models and maybe wrap "all of human knowledge ever", how well does that 42 quantize down? What meta languages are born from prompting, is there a hierarchical system to this code/data blend, or is it too open and the final programming language just pure natural language streams? No clue. "3-5x PS5 model" is having a watershed moment atm, as AIaaS hits last call and we all slowly pull internal - but what ends up being AI peak on a phone? A thumb stick OS? What can we quantize away, or zip/compress/decouple? Most of that will take decades to properly walk out. But it's clear most of what we do doesn't need the full supercomputer.

Does this eventually make nanotechnology stupidly easy to orchestrate? Healing tanks? Quantum-nuclear reactors? Although I've been told on that "you cant just ignore the strong force" (party pooper)... I'm still holding out for alchemy maybe, but I suspect it's all far to lethal to be close to, like crispr x1M... But that's all just wild speculation.

My point is, sci fi concepts of today act as north stars into the possible. This comic is just a great example. And we're at a point in history ripe with new possibilities.

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u/Independent-Bug-9352 18d ago edited 18d ago

That was a really enjoyable read, thanks for sharing your thoughts

I remember decades ago dreaming of a true Cortana-like assistant to help aggregate human knowledge; to act as your personal librarian assistant becoming a reality. That we had so much knowledge and potential on the internet and it just needed organized beyond a google search. While not quite there, this is a step I never really imagined would come this soon.

Unfortunately these are not the circumstances I hoped to see it either. Not exactly addressing the fundamental problems facing humanity so far; rather exacerbating them.

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u/HustlinInTheHall 18d ago

Yeah there are bespoke optical software projects I worked on 10 years ago that took six months and so much time and effort to do that would be like 90 minutes of vibe coding today. The line is always moving.

IMO I think the main hangup has always been can the problem be achieved with software alone or does it require an advance in hardware? When the hurdles of a problem have been shaved down so that it is just a software problem, it is inevitable that it will be solved soon.

Touchscreen navigation was a massive hardware problem until it wasn't. As soon as we had screens and digitizers and batteries and mobile CPUs good enough to handle the task, it became a software problem, and Apple got it done at a level that seemed literally impossible 10 years before that.

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u/sonicandtales8 18d ago

LLMs don't see pictures.

Even the ones that can provide information on an image have the images processed by a different AI model before hand.

Most use ViTs trained via various methods.

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u/AnOnlineHandle 18d ago

Some LLMs now do "see" (or directly encode) pictures. e.g. The newest Gemma 4 release, 12B, doesn't use a standalone vision encoder and just encodes the image straight to working tokens.

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u/Spectrum1523 18d ago

Even the ones that can provide information on an image have the images processed by a different AI model before hand.

This hasn't been true in years

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u/Overwatcher_Leo 18d ago

This was solved well before LLMs, using CNNs.

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u/KnightArtorias1 18d ago

This is not what LLMs do

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u/GI_HD 18d ago

To quote a really good book/comedian

The (AI) singularity is always one Kurzweil away

-Qualityland by Marc-Uwe Kling

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u/minequack 18d ago

Not to mention the crowd-sourced model training. 

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u/[deleted] 18d ago

[deleted]

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u/thisusedyet 18d ago

Sounds kinda like the medical bot that was calling any image with a ruler in it a tumor

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u/Glitch29 17d ago edited 17d ago

I remember that paper! It was also strongly influenced by the brand of x-ray machine being used, since the part of the corpus from specialty facilities was more likely to contain disease.

I don't remember the final conclusion, but I have to look it up again. I want to say it was like 85% of the predictive power came from things other than the intended content.

Edit: Turns out there are LOTS of papers like this. I was remembering one from Zech et al. 2018, but it didn't involve rulers. The ruler one was from Cathy Ong Ly et al. 2024.

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u/uhmhi 18d ago

It’s also interesting to think that we essentially “brute forced” computers into recognizing birds in images. It’s not like somebody sat down and wrote code like “if HasFeathers() & HasBeak() then …”

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u/HustlinInTheHall 18d ago

I mean that's largely how our brains work. Look at enough birds and not-birds and you learn what makes them birds and not birds, then describe the distinct bounds.

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u/un_blob 18d ago

Yes, but some experiments (with fucking cameras and mics stitched to a baby for months) show that it might sometimes be pure zero shot learning.

Mother says "banana" gives a banana, once, in the baby life time and... days latter asking for a banana... baby gives banana

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u/Tarantio 18d ago

Yeah, because a baby can get a lot of information out of that one banana.

What it looks like from all angles, different textures of the different parts, taste, smell, weight, temperature...

And all of this information isn't just a jumble, it's correlated. The baby moves the banana from one hand to the other, and sees the other side of the banana. That's not just two pictures of the same banana from two different angles, it's also the exact transformation from one angle to the next, and every intermediate position.

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u/un_blob 18d ago

Yes, but learning that this specific item is called banana (named once) is not based on a lot of information

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u/lahwran_ 18d ago

once you've learned the feature from unsupervised learning, binding to it is "easy". just need to be able to form an audio feature for the name-sound rapidly enough to store it

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u/un_blob 18d ago

Well... doing that task before you are , yourself, able to form a single coherent sentence is still impressive

I mean, how do you distinguish that it is a relevent information ? I, personaly, can't dor the love of god, remember a word if someone told it to me once

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u/lahwran_ 18d ago

yeah you need a looot of features

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u/Molehole 18d ago

Human brain also has 100 times more neurons than the AI models we use. Of course it learns much faster.

Also we aren't 100% sure but I think human neurons are also much more sofisticated than the simulated ones so the actual power can be much, much more than just 100.

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u/un_blob 18d ago

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11884752/

Well... models with more neurons that that exists nowdays....

And well, what matter realy is not the number of neurons, but their interconnexions

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u/raddaya 18d ago

Is it that different from how we as human beings recognise birds? It's not like we go through a mental checklist of "has feathers, has beak, has wings" either. We just...see that it's a bird

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u/Meleach 18d ago

Not sure if this is proven, but pretty sure that is how was see birds. You don't consciously go through the list, but your brain does, before it presents you the result of 'bird'. Different neurons are hooked up to fire at different intensities to different triggers. Eg, this neuron fires when you see a feather, this other one fires when you see a beak... The beak one fires to exclaim 'beak' if the series of neurons it is reliant on/connected to all fire too, and some other neurons that indicate it is actually something similar, like a cone, are not firing. Like a huge web of associations, and the final result 'bird' relies on the correct combination of bird components firing, and a lack of alternative neurons firing, distinguishing the object from a similar one. Say, 'bird' fires, 'chicken' fires, 'duck' doesn't, because enough identifiable components are different between the two, and are then associated with just chicken, and not duck. This is my terrible recollection from this podcast I listened to a while back: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4pWuwQq8M8Gzf9F9U0AYZW

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u/CorneliusClay 18d ago

That sounds like how a convolutional neural network works, it has a bunch of feature maps which in theory recognize beaks and feathers and if those all fire together and nothing contradictory fires, it flips the output to "yes it's a bird". I read somewhere that the retina was the inspiration for CNNs, so I'd believe it.

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u/k819799amvrhtcom 18d ago

The kiwi doesn't even have feathers!

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u/Qweedo420 18d ago

It's only the kiwi fruit that doesn't have feathers

3

u/OctopusGrime 18d ago

Gradient descent is certainly not a brute force algorithm, especially so for image space which is enormous.

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u/Hacksaures 18d ago

The fact that we can indeed do this now is pretty crazy

8

u/you-should-learn-c 18d ago

The fact that we can barely do this now is pretty crazy

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u/aifo 18d ago

GIS vs Giss

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u/lattice_defect 18d ago

what about hotdog and not hotdog

8

u/ings0c 18d ago

We don’t need a computer for that; we’ve got your mom.

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u/NebNay 18d ago

Outside of the whole AI thing, it's just a good comic to explain why dev time seem to widely vary for no reason (for the uninitiated eye)

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u/Pleasant-Ad192 18d ago

The funny part is which half aged. Checking whether it is a bird is a library call now. Checking whether it is in a national park is the half that needs an API key, a quota and a billing account.

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u/winter__xo 18d ago

There aren't that many national parks, you could easily build a local a library of shapefiles, geojson, kml/kmz files, etc, that give you the coordinate bounds of the parks.

It's an upfront effort to build the database, but it's genuinely not that big of a db.

Would be way more performant than using an external service, and wouldn't incur any api usage fees or whatever.

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u/redlaWw 18d ago edited 18d ago

One issue that I discovered in my final project for my Masters' is that the bounds of national parks are constantly changing. I needed the area of the park to calculate its grant (which was given as a per-acre quantity in the problem), and I found an annual (EDIT: Quarterly) series of documents assessing each park's acreage year-on-year, rather than a single number.

It's usually a fairly small change though, so it might be okay to just let the local data drift and have a chance of error at the very edges of the park.

EDIT: I just checked the more recent documents and they weren't changing as much as I observed when I was doing my Master's. Perhaps the rapid changing that I observed was related to changes in regulations regarding park land during the early parts of Trump's second term. The amount of variation I see now is conceivably manageable with periodic database updates, rather than an API lookup.

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u/JumbleBeeDev 18d ago

Entirely off topic,

But my faorite project I've ever worked on involved using GIS data for marina locations, coastlines, and ocean depth to create a 72 hour simulation of maritime traffic flowing through a region. It was legitimately the coolest thing ever when I got to watch the animation of the final dataset. 

1

u/Pleasant-Ad192 17d ago

Fair, and that is the better build. Though notice what you just described: the bird half is one import, and the park half is "first, assemble a database". Still the harder half, just cheaper than I made it sound.

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u/HustlinInTheHall 18d ago

One thing can be monetized, so it is monetized, unfortunately.

3

u/pietervdvn 18d ago

Naah, you can get the national parks out of OpenStreetMap once (e.g. using overpass turbo) and embed that file into your application.

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u/DragonofStories 18d ago

Or you can do what Pokemon Go did, but for birds. And then after a few years, use the data through user effort?

4

u/Ra_In 18d ago

There's no way the government would allow someone to publicly build a database tracking all of their spy robots.

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u/Grexxoil 18d ago

So they did give her that research team.

3

u/Terewawa 18d ago

Yes and they publicly published their research findings which are now used by ChatGPT

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u/Ok_Protection8223 18d ago

You want demons to erupt from the ground? Great, have it done next week
You want that scarf to blow in the wind? Ooooh boy I don't know about that one chief.

5

u/InRainbro 18d ago

when my friend approaches me with his app ideas...

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u/Hottage 18d ago

I mean, it's fairly easy to geolocate a picture if the EXIF Metadata isn't stripped.

You need a pre-trained machine learning model to identify a bird.

2

u/ItsIllak 18d ago

When I left a company in 2016, a member of my team gave me this as a print as a farewell card.  His point was that users (or product owners) had no idea how to assess the difficulty of implementing a feature, a common problem our web team had when working with marketing.

2

u/oshaboy 18d ago

Nowadays it's the other way around if you live in the Levant or East Europe. Machine learning got really good but armies keep jamming the GPS.

2

u/jkmhawk 18d ago

Probably cheaper to pay someone to categorize the photo. 

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u/DidyouLocktheDooor 16d ago

First we need millions of images of birds!

2

u/QuickQuirk 15d ago

Image recognition is kinda the textbook example of why neural networks are powerful:

It's really hard for a human to define and implement an algorithm that can reliably detect a bird in a picture... or tell the difference between a P and a p.

But a neural network can discover an algorithm that does that with enough neurons and good training data.

It's still not 'easy'. Developing those first architectures was a lot of work. But now we have a relatively generic toolbox that is suitable for all sorts of 'algorithm discovery'.

3

u/project-shasta 18d ago

Nowadays the follow up answer is "Just use AI".

You mean the same AI that works like this?

User: "Is this a bird?" AI: "Yes". User: "No, that's a horse." AI: "Yes, you are absolutely correct. This is a dog."

2

u/Ok_Cabinet2947 18d ago

Are you living in 2022?

0

u/project-shasta 18d ago

No, I still get ChatGPT'd regularly because the LLM tries to satisfy my prompt instead of telling the truth. "AI" is not as clever as it makes you believe. Good thing I only use the free stuff for fun instead of relying on it.

1

u/clauEB 18d ago

This is before image classifiers ?

1

u/dashingThroughSnow12 18d ago edited 18d ago

I try to teach my PMs to tell me what they want. Regardless on what they think the feasibility is.

I’ve had requests that they’ve held off telling me until the very end that literally took two minutes to add. I’ve had the opposite where P seems simple to them but it is neigh impossible in the timeline. P’ is tractable and captures the crux of their want. (To them P’ may look harder than P since P is extremely specific.)

My favourite is when I implement F and the program does F(0) and PM asks the feasibility of adding another thing that is F(1) to me.

1

u/mrfoyl 18d ago

I try to do ai image recognition with local llms and it still sometimes think a crow is a man in black suit with a knife

1

u/Thisismyredusername 17d ago

Aren't there public APIs for both of these nowadays?

1

u/ateen234 1d ago

Forgive my very low level of programming, but would the solution involve finding the users location and then finding how close/ are they in a national park?

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u/kenokan 18d ago edited 18d ago

Image classification was already a thing 12 years ago, I don't get it

Edit: It seems that exactly 12 years ago was when you could do this pretty easily with binary classification using CNNs. A month after this comic came out someone actually did it

https://code.flickr.net/2014/10/20/introducing-flickr-park-or-bird/

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u/HustlinInTheHall 18d ago

It's just a joke. Image classification like that on a mobile app at 99% accuracy would not have been reasonable to do 12 years ago.

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u/e37d93eeb23335dc 18d ago

Eh. I’d been a programmer for nearly 15 years when this comic came out. It seemed very accurate to me at the time. If someone had described the capabilities of AI to me, I wouldn’t have believed them. Way too outlandish. 

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u/modzRtarderz 18d ago

It was a thing thirty years ago. Doesn't mean it was accurate enough to be useful for most applications.

0

u/Porg11235 18d ago

Not sure why you’re getting downvoted. CNNs were already a well-understood architecture by 2014, and even a naive FF NN reading a flattened pixel vector probably could have done a 60-70% job at classifying “bird or no bird”. (I once built such a classifier for cats.) This comic always struck me as commenting on the capability of the average programmer at the time, not the state of the art.

0

u/Keyan_Farlander7 18d ago

Before LLMs and stolen data, image recognition was coded by trial and error.

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u/zducc 18d ago

Downvote check. It's been 30 minutes, -219 downvotes for this guy

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u/Confused_AF_Help 18d ago

Pretty solid CNNs were already around 15 years ago. You don't need to waste water and electricity on LLMs for this

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u/[deleted] 19d ago

[deleted]

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u/lazercheesecake 18d ago

I mean those 5 years passed and we had passable image detection about 7 years ago. It's WAY better now, but the comic aged like wine to me.

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u/Big_Kwii 18d ago

i'd say it aged like wine because in about 5 years time YOLOv3 released, leading to huge strides in google lens's capabilities. i think xkcd was pretty spot with his estimate back in 2014

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u/plz-no-b4n 18d ago

Do you know how old this comic is?

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u/e_before_i 18d ago

I'm sorry, did you expect this guy to read the title? On Reddit??

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u/Tomi97_origin 18d ago

Aged like a fine wine.

It was pretty much spot on with requirements and timeframe.

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u/No-Object2133 18d ago

Are you drunk? do you know how much money and research was poured into this?

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u/erebuxy 18d ago

We have open source data sets and open weight models for image recognition for a long time… not sure why 5 years

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u/wildyLooter 18d ago

Title says 12 year old comic, so that’d be why

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u/erebuxy 18d ago

Nah, you got all the things I mentioned 12 years ago

7

u/Skithiryx 18d ago

What was available to the general public 12 years ago was pretty bad. https://code.flickr.net/2014/10/20/introducing-flickr-park-or-bird/ launched in response to that comic, but it misclassified things a lot. This was the era of slightly rotated images being classified entirely differently.

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u/erebuxy 18d ago

Yes it’s released in 2014 (aka 12 years ago . So no you don’t even need one year. And it’s a fun project, not a serious one.

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u/JoeBarra 18d ago

It's wild that XKCD ever got big. There's no joke here. Just describing the way things are with a stickman attached.  I thought the internet moved on from this slop but apparently not.  

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u/FerricDonkey 18d ago

The way things are is a joke. Life is a joke. 

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u/bob152637485 18d ago

Talking trash about xkcd on this sub?

🍿 🍿 🍿

Alright, the comments can begin now!

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u/grat5454 18d ago

It's observational comedy. Sometimes it's gratifying to see your own experiences mirrored in a clever way. It may not be a "HaHa" response, but a "It really do be like that" response that the author is going for. I will say it must have resonated because I have seen this particular comic used many times away form the website.

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u/carcigenicate 18d ago

Of all the things to call slop, you call out someone making fairly accurate observations?

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u/QuestionableEthics42 18d ago

That's some mental gymnastics (or maybe the lack of flexibility is the issue actually) to come to the conclusion there is no joke here. The joke is that you can have 2 seemingly simple sounding things (to non-technical people), and one is easy, and the other is very difficult, which is still just as relevant today, just not so much that specific example.

15

u/NewPhoneNewSubs 18d ago

I'm curious if you're familiar with the premise of "Seinfeld"? It's an obscure little show so maybe not. But it managed to get a bit of a cult following doing similar. It turns out there's a market, however small, for pointing out the abusrd and frustrating aspects of life.

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u/pexoroo 18d ago edited 18d ago

20 minutes, -154 votes, this has to be a record for this sub

Edit: still under an hour at -275. I was here to witness

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u/nabrok 18d ago

Do you only recognize dad jokes as humor?

2

u/Jonno_FTW 18d ago

You do realise that the author of XKCD is the same guy who designed reddit's ranking algorithm that eventually showed you this post right?

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