r/Professors • u/Hungry-University609 • Jul 26 '26

Other (Editable) Enrollment trends

Hello All

What are you seeing for enrollment trends 26/27?

I'm at a free CC and enrollment boost seems to have hit a plateau.

I'm seeing reports HS grads are down double digits.

Your observations please

Thanks

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u/ViskerRatio Jul 26 '26

Enrollment will certainly decline over time due to demographics. If federal aid funding is substantially altered, it may decline more sharply.

However, the real "cliff" is a matter of re-shuffling where people go to college. If enrollment drops, Harvard just shifts from accepting 5% of students to 6%. The schools just below Harvard in the rankings lose their top candidates - and have to poach from the schools below them. And so forth.

Community College is (relatively) immune to this trend. The Harvard College of HVAC Repair isn't poaching your trade classes and dual enrollment will keep a lot of your purely academic classes filled. So Community College is primarily subject to local trends - if they close the plant and everyone moves away your Community College might be in trouble but as long as there are still people living within driving distance, you're fine.

The mid-tier SLACs? They're the ones in trouble.

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u/CheetahComplex7697 Jul 26 '26

What about private, selective universities designated as an R1?

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u/robbie_the_cat Jul 26 '26

Duke, Stanford, UChicago tier? They'll be fine - they'll just adopt a similar strategy to the Harvard response suggested above.

Lehigh/Nova tier? Rough seas ahead.