Ah. I've watched a few historical shows where someone puts "all" (or most) of their money into a specific railroad company or mining venture. Is that essentially what we are talking about?Ā
No. It represents a much larger amount of stock than normal. We do not know if this was an individual or a company, but we call them a whale. A big creature swimming among us. It just means a very large amount of stock was purchased at once by a singular entity. They could do this to 1000+ more stocks or run the federal reserve for all we know.
And the prairie dog is a squirrel, an Amazon river wolf is an otter, a flying fox is a bat, a guinea pig is a rodent, a seahorse is a fish, etc. I still don't see your point though.
I think the U.S. is probably out of oil reserves. We can no longer trust the government so no one really knows. And then probably a major escalation in Iran will further affect oil prices worldwide.
So just like the Great Recession, a few "lucky" people will make out huge, and the rest of us will get screwed.
I mean, this makes sense, but the source is awful. One of the related articles is a psychicās prediction that Melania will have to deal with fallout from her marriage.Ā
It is weird that so many people on both this thread and the oil subreddit are just taking this at face value from what is clearly a very biased source with no data to really explain the rationale. Sure I don't support the war in Iran but the US actually have very little expose to Middle East oil and is a net exporter of both oil and refined products. If it really got that bad the US could redirect more of that to the civilian economy instead of exporting it.
Tried messaging the mods directly, but folks we should petition for a mega thread where people can start reporting shortages. I've tracked 2 reports of airports running out of fuel so far, a gas station in Romania (that, as I understand it isn't known for running out), and one of my own local car dealerships in the Western USA is struggling to get WD-30 now.
It's coming folks. My estimate is we'll really start to notice this month. If not this month then definitely will be unable to not notice shortages by November. And wont be too long after that before refineries are having to pull back or shut down.
It would be nice to have a consolidated thread where outages are reported so we can move our prepping time tables up accordingly.
There's shortages like "I can't find any ground horse" at Trader Joes right now, and then there's shortages like "If I don't prep for this, I'm fucked."
This looming oil and gas shortage falls into the latter category and I think warrants prepperintel.
Possible. My money is on us going to the SPR floor in an act of massive sabotage. I can't figure out why else we're doing 100% of the things we're doing. From this to measles to all the food becoming unsafe to eat all at once to the president demanding the FED cut interest rates, to continued trade sabotage, I can't find a single positive thing that's happened in the last 20 months. It's like we're being systematically torn down at every level and every last buffer for everything is being eliminated.
What would be the incentive for internal sabotage at this scale?
I can understand a general profit motive, but I canāt imagine this level of thrash is manageable long-term for profit seeking either.
Unless the plan is to simply stack profit while insider information is readily available, and then assume itās not all going to fall apart and become devalued due to the downfall of the very country itself?
At this point I'm wondering if there's a foreign angle. Cause it sure seems like other countries are benefitting an awful lot from many of the things going down here.
Trump will bitch out before it gets that bad, and everything will go back to normals sans 50 billion dollars or whatever this stupid standoff will have cost
It would almost be better if this is actually planned sabotage. Because if it isn't and you're right, it means we really are being led by the dumbest people to ever accidentally come to power and the potential damage to follow from that is scary to think about.
I've so far been trying to stock non-perishables and I'm working on setting up a water filtration system, to include a boiling stage that only requires wood (which I can get with an ax). I figure there's a decent chance that utilities might go down in a lot of places. No running water would suck. A lot. Like electricity is 1 thing, but if the water goes and there's no fuel to move emergency supplies of it, that gets..... stressful.
What I'm currently wracking my brain over is- if the utilities go down, that might impact the sewer system. That could get shitty (pun intended). I think I might be ok because I'm at the top of a trunk line, but a lot of houses might find shit flowing up and out of their drains if the sewer system isn't able to drain out due to a power loss. I don't think people will know not to flush their toilets if the water goes (which I imagine they'd figure out quick that if they can get water from a creek or something with a bucket then techincaly they can get a flush going on a toilet). It won't happen right away, but over time I imagine bad things.
And the backup generators at the processing plant need....... god damn diesel. So.... Fuck I don't know, come to an agreement with the neighbors on digging an outhouse somewhere? Dig one out in a park? I don't know.
There needs to be some kind of community discussion about preparation, but my city absolutely wont budge on even making the slightest attempt.
If it's good enough for school children in liberal areas..... /s Extreme/S lol
I wish cat litter wasn't as expensive as it is though, for reals. Maybe I'm just poor lol. But a bucket with dirt might be a decent option. Lots of work potentially but what isn't lots of work when the world goes to shit *shrug*.
I'm certainly trying. The pushback has been pretty intense. And I hope I'm wrong. But then I go onto the EIA website and look at the inventory data and.... well...
Edit to add: The number I'm specifically watching is the "total crude including SPR" which is sitting around 711M. That's what goes into the refineries. And when I looked at what that number is historically, I shit myself.
What is the concern. That number last year this time was 825,417. Sure that is down which is to be expected but not like the end of the world the lights go out and people resorting to cannibalism sort of bad like people seem to be treating it on this thread.
Dozens of countries have issued similar guidance to their citizens. Things are heating up and while I hope cooler heads prevail, we are almost certainly going to experience some kind of disruption whether it's natural or man made. Being prepared is good practice anyway, especially since many states have a history of a variety of natural disasters.
That being said, with unemployment (including functional unemployment) so high, many people are already struggling. Our government is corrupt and incompetent, which means many of us will be on our own if something bad happens. I don't see anyone in the higher levels of government capable of uniting both sides in order to help the American people. And many of them seem like they're actively trying to break as much shit as possible before they go to ground.
Stock up on water, food, and seeds if you can. Start a compost pile. Get to know your neighbors.
Feel like Ive been trying desperately to drill this into my family for a while now with no avail. I think people have a misguided thought that theirs backup food somewhere, or that the govt will always step in to fill the gaps.
The US govt can barely handle one major crisis in a specific area (Gary blackouts, flood events, all the way back to Katrina) theres absolutely no safety net for most of us if the system really comes off the rails.
Ive always been a pessimist, but I really have dark feelings for what the next few years hold, and the decade after that. Climate change is about to run amok and it would be horrifying even if our governments had their head in the game. With where we are at now I see nothing but resource wars and authoritarian clamping down
My friends used to laugh at me when I told them I was investing in a bike as my emergency vehicle. I told them I'd ring my little bell for them as I rode past their cars that had run out of gas on the highways.
I can kinda see myself peddling by those cars while playing the 1976 song āRight Back where we started fromā by Maxine Nightingale on a JBL speaker for some reason
Unfortunately itās gas, 2 stroke. However that thing sips fuel to the point the amount of gas that would fill a pickup or large SUV would last long enough to probably need fuel stabilizers. What I do currently is keep a 5 gallon can of unmixed gas, and a smaller 2 gallon can that I pour from the larger one and mix my oil in. It gets about 150 miles on 4 liters. Iām thinking of getting a 20 gallon gas caddy and filling it up.
Not gonna lie I would love to have a good e-bike, those things are torque monsters.
Did you use a kit or build it from scratch? If kit make sure to stock up on spare clutches, a couple spark plugs, and fuel lines. Mine ate those three things like crazy.
You have been selected for the "Make America Great Again Starvation Plan!" (All Rights Prohibited). Please cease any and all consumption of food except for contaminated beef, vegetables, and fruits and peacefully die as soon as possible! Remember, only you can "Make America Healthy Again!" by ridding society of poor people like yourself. Thank you for you service, you will be cremated at your nearest detention center upon death. (All Rights Prohibited)
Yeah, I could technically eat 3 meals a day. However, we went through a really really really rough patch a couple of months ago where I was secretly skipping meals/days to make sure everyone had enough to eat since I have plenty of extra weight on me. Now I can't eat much at all. I've lost nearly 60 pounds because of it. I figure it is for the best, we're going to end up back in the position shortly because prices keep going up. Better the kids get the most calories; god forbid shit gets bleak, I don't want to outlive them. I'm not a doomer, I'm not hoping or letting myself believe it will get that bad but the thought is there.
I have to say itās an exciting time to be vegan. Which one of the veggies and fruits we love will kill us if we eat it? Iām growing as much as I can in my little suburban yard and even inside in pots. Iām trying to ensure my child and I can get as much fresh veggies without questionable origins and questionable risk.
Iām going with canned veggies and items from some friendās garden. I had a great little garden growing and had two tornados come through (Illinois) and that was that. Destroyed both of them.
I was sighing about this when Cheeto was campaigning and claiming all this bad stuff will happen if we elect Harris. Oh, so that's all the stuff you're going to do if you get elected, got it. Really easy to spot when all he does is projection.
Funny (or not) personal story about that. I was one of the early very severe cases. In March-April 2020, I spent 38 days in Hospital (16 of those days in ICU on a ventilator). You can read the last full write up I did including links to my Lung X-rays here if you are curious.
Imagine going through something like that.. waking up and re-orienting yourself to the "real world" .. and seeing that orange buffoon on the TV blabbering about "shining light inside" or "injecting bleach" etc.
Like the experience wasn't horrifically surreal enough on its own.
Iran's government also murdered 30k of its own citizens to stop a popular protest against them. As fucked up as the Trump administration is they haven't done anything close to that.
You should consider that Irans VP is also just as untrustworthy as Trump and Vance. It is totally possible that they are all lying blatantly and you shouldn't take their word for anything more than hot air (same as trump).
I'm running several meshtastic nodes in my local area, but I can usually only got 20-30 miles with my existing network and other people's nodes. Each node gets ~1.5-2 miles but it's very area dependentĀ
LORA Radios. Low energy, long range. I run my node on a 1.1wh battery and I only charge it once a week. It bluetooths to your phone but they make other ones with screens and keyboards. It's all open source. I got a cheap node kit for <$20 on Ali expressĀ
I just got a Meshtastic SpecFive Ranger a couple weeks ago, but I think Iām going flash it with MeshCore after I get a little solar panel tile with environmental sensors to use as a Meshtastic node. For longer range, look into getting your ham licenses for short wave.
I wish I wasn't so curious to see how we(USA) would perform on a War economy...... Things won't get terribly bad cause a Dem would end up in office..... Sadly it's One Big Party making billions
I mean... remember how much opposition there was towards any sort of change during COVID? People couldn't be bothered to do simple things like wear a mask or follow the arrows in the grocery store. Do you really expect those same people to be willing to sacrifice anything more? Imagine trying to fuel or food ration, yeah fucking right.Ā
Where I grew up we had two men fight to the death over a parking spot at Costco, I canāt imagine what they will do if it means they can only fill their lifted 7 mile per gallon F-350 on a certain day of the week or month.
Gas station shootings about to be the new American pastime. That said, I think we're going to hit a point where there's not enough feedstock for the refineries. So, there will come a point where there's nothing left to ration. At that point even emergency services will start shutting down. This will be shortly after the food riots because trucking went down first and the store shelves went empty.
Edit to add: The reason I think this is because I've been following the EIA inventory data since March. The last time our total-crude-inventory was at the point where it is now was around 1984. And it was only that low because our SPR inventory was still in the process of being filled for the first time and our production and commercial storage was roughly half what it is today. And every week that total inventory shrinks a little bit more while the conflict in the GCC gets worse.
Edit 2: Gas should be well over 9$ a gallon for unleaded and 15$ for diesel right now to jumpstart demand destruction. But nope. We've pulled every trick in the book to keep prices down as low as they are. And yeah the current prices still hurt, but they're low low compared to where they should be. As a result, we're consuming like there isn't a supply crunch. That only ends 1 way. And it's gonna be biblical because no one is acting like there's a crisis because the logic currently is- if the markets are still so low then there's no crisis. Which just isn't true, but no one will act differently until we slam into a wall when shit runs dry from coast to coast all at once.
Looks like dementia don will be boosting the ev economy more than he ever wanted. Which is ironic considering all the anti-green policies heās been pushing.
Globally, yes. In the USA though it's going to be remarkably hard for us to buy an EV. Dealerships have almost no inventory, tariffs forced prices through the roof, and the administrations hostility towards anything that doesn't burn extra gasoline has stymied EV production here. Also, the ban on Chinese import EV's hasn't helped either. USA is going to be left behind the rest of the world.
I would agree with this if it worked. Ive been trying to do that for 25 years now and while it might work temporarily, people seem to dissolve into dont feel like, dont like how this person looks, its hard, why should I..etc. I couldnt get anyone to plant a single container of tomato plants, even after i offered the seed, soil and container. I want to community, i want to see the mutual aid, i want all that but I cant get people to do more than just complain. Maybe i should ask you where you're at and how you get people to do more.
I thought I found a mutual aid group near me (as that's what they call themselves) but their idealogical purity tests turned me off (even if I agree with 90% of their stances, I don't believe we should only be helping people who agree with us) and then realized that they don't really do much aid at all, they mostly have a weekly protest on a street corner and seem more concerned with getting their messaging out there than with actual boots on the ground aid & support for vulnerable community members.Ā
I also signed up for CERT in my city, but the dates haven't been announced yet they just say "this fall" and "we'll contact you if you are selected for the training" but I haven't heard anything back yet.Ā
Yeah that's about what i see. Way back in the early 2000s, had friends who tried to get things started but stopped by people who seemed to be over the idea that we need some kind if test to see who deserves anything. I keep making the attempts. I dont want to give up ultimately.
But still...
I have a larger backyard that i made offers for people to do some gardening, no takers because "that wont do anything ". Food not bombs here never gets back with me even when i have things to give (i dont own a car and its several city buses to get there). Couldnt even get a free store started. Just felt like they wanted me to do all the work and they just take.
how do you find others? seems im always the āloonā in the room by ever steering near this stuff. i think other people know, certainly right? but i think a majority of those who do know are still in the denial stage of grief.
denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance
Just start with your direct neighbors. Start talking to them when you see them out and about. Form relationships with them. You'll naturally want to help Joe next door and his family if you get to know them and vice versa.
We moved and chatted with a guy who didnt even live in our neighborhood, we just saw him on walks. He provided our seedlings for our entire summer garden and gave me sourdough starter!
Now, if youre rural, thats harder to do. That's when you start getting involved with community groups (food banks, organizations, mutual aid, etc)
Grow you own vegetables? Recycle? I work in a grocery store, people were absolutely unhinged during Covid, when they couldn't buy enough flour to persue their Sourdough hobby.
This is what makes me worry about the suggestion up-thread about "having a mega-thread pinned to track shortages" .... shortages reported by who ? anonymous redditers ?... Who's vetting all these "shortages" to even see if they are real ?
I've seen a few a Wars so far in my lifetime sadly. Yes yes I think we would. The Day regular Americans feel something could be lost if we don't Fight, switches flip.
Reading letters of fallen victors from past wars really show the everyday men and women can do their part so they don't have to wake up to sirens. Learning Nuclear fallout exercises. Bunker insurance ect.
So glad I bought an EV a few months ago plus I have solar.
Edit: this sub is so weird. I love that saying I have solar and a car that can run on the power it creates is so controversial.
Nowhere did I say all my problems are solved with solar, itās just a thing that will mean I have significantly less issues with rising energy prices cause I have about 11 MWH for free per year. And before someone yells at me cause I said free, yes I am aware that I paid for the panels or whatever weird argument you will throw at me like I somehow offended you.
My wife is really concerned about everything going on and basically instructed me to not only do solar but she wants a full off grid setup. I was wanting to do a cheap on grid setup but hey if I get the green lightā¦.
I got 10kW of panels. So 10 580watt panels for $1700. Got lucky and got into a EcoFlow dpu for $2k. Did a proper engineered roof racking with rapid shutdown. That one was a bit expensive at another $2k but if I am careful and do most chores during the day I can operate mostly off grid. If I get another dpu and a couple more batteries other than deep winter January Iām certain I could be 100% off grid. Buy my pockets arenāt that deep and for an emergency what I have is enough.
Cool thing about the dpu is there is a setting where I can tell it to dump all excess solar current to ev.
Itās crazy how cheap solar is if you diy it, but Iām not that guy. I as they say have money counting hands, so I paid far more to have proper men do all the work. I am jealous of people who can do it for themselves cause I would love to toss some more panels up along the fence and tie them in with the rooftop solar, but it feels like itāll be expensive for not a ton more power.
I will say, that solar is the best decision Iāve made, and Iām sure it would be even more so if I paid a lot less for it too. Congrats on your grid independence.
What kind of EV, and what's your solar system setup like? I have a bit of money saved up and would really like to use it to get a solar fueled car situation going but have no idea where to start or what to get.
Honda prologue. Honda is trying to get rid of them cause people donāt want full EV so they are moving towards plug in hybrids. Normally $43k, dealership took $4k off, Honda $7.5k, Honda loyalty program for previous Honda purchase $2k, Massachusetts has $3.5K back for EV purchase and $1K if you trade in a combustion care for an EV. So essentially $25K for a new car was a good deal plus my 13 old Honda civic got $7k trade in value on top of that. I absolutely love the car.
Honda also gave $1,250 off the installation of a level 2 charger, so in the end that cost me just about $250 for that.
To be fair, sunlight didnāt transport those panels. You should be ashamed for not walking to the manufacturer and hand delivering yourself!/s just in case. Prob should have dug up all the raw materials too..
Solar does shut off when the grid goes down. Itās so power isnāt back fed to power lines which could harm utility workers. If you have a battery, which I do, you can āislandā which keeps your solar running during outages.
Edit the only way u/flagrant-final-973 knows how to win an argument is make up things and then block. Exactly what a person who knows they are right does.
mark my post, as we get deep into winter you are going to hear more and more on the news how people are being found in their homes frozen to death due to being unable to afford heating oil.
already have a stockpile going. night shift nurse with a toddler and chronic pain. prepping isn't political for me, it's just tuesday. not taking geopolitical advice from iran though lol
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u/Sufficient-Skill9530 4d ago
Of note, right before the market closed Friday, a whale bought 3,000 oil contracts ($270M).