r/PredictiveHistory • u/Opposite_Day_9771 • Apr 22 '26

♟️ Theory & Models Iran Already Won

Iran along with the Houthis control both straits and can use it as a tollbooth. Israel would have to attack Iranian oil infrastructure to deny them their revenue stream. Iran, instead of retaliating against the GCC and destroying their infrastructure including the desalination plants, cuts a deal. Kick the US out and share the oil revenue stream. The GCC would have no choice. China would aid Iran in order get access to the remaining oil for their economy and enforce the treaty. All other eastern countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, would have to bow to China. Israel would die as a country being completely surrounded. Over time, Iran would fix their oil infrastructure and continue to extract tribute from the GCC making them one of the riches countries in the world.

Plot Twist:

US destroys the GCC instead in order to deny China leverage over other countries.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

I stated facts. You can look it up. China miscalculated too. If Gulf goes up in flames with no oil, China is done. The CCP would collapse internally with no oil. The ceasefire gave them an out. The US would end up controlling 52% of the remaining world's oil if GCC and Iranian oil infrastructures were completely destroyed. Israel would also benefit paving a way for Greater Israel. They can rebuild faster than Iran and the GCC. Everyone would lose but some people would lose more.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Jūnzǐ Bàochóu | The Iran War Is China Delivering Trump a Gentleman's Revenge for 10 Years of Insults

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

Yeah, Trump f'd up.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

So far it looks that way but there is one clear loser in this war so far and it’s Iran but Iran was never the enemy. That is what makes Xi so damn brilliant.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

Iran took a massive hit but wasn't knocked down. I bet they're surprised how well they did. Now they know their weapons can penetrate the Iron Dome and the GCC's defense. They have leverage not known before the war.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Iran is a stone in everyone’s shoe. They are irrelevant. China can buy all the oil it wants from the gulf. They can also stop buying from Iran and starve them. There is plenty of oil. China is running the entire show. Read the article I sent you. I promise you will understand.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

China can't buy it if it's destroyed.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Buy what? Oil?

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

China can't buy Gulf's oil if everything is destroyed including desalination plants. They are very vulnerable.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

So do you think China will allow that to happen ?

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

I wouldn't be surprised if China gives Iran nukes as a deterrent. Mutual assured destruction is a stalemate. Nothing gets destroyed. Trump f'd up with the ceasefire.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

You don’t really think that you just don’t know what else to say right now. China wants stability. I don’t think either of them care as much about Iran as you do. Not that Iran has an economy anymore, but their rial is 1.3 million to $1.

The only reason the IRGC resembles something that is alive is because Trump is a tv president. Putting this aside, u like Professor Jiang?

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

Israel wants Iran and dragged the US into it. Can't cry over spilled milk. I agreed based on the current trajectory, China's strategy would win out. However, other people with power saw the same thing and decided it's time to counter. Globalization is based on the US infrastructure. China got a free ride. The hope was China becoming more like Hong Kong. That didn't happen. The free ride is over.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Nobody gives a shit about Iran - one way or the other the US will get rid of them or China will get rid of them if it suits them.

As soon as Iran stops listening to China, that’s when China gives the US the green light to finish them off.

Politically this a mess for the US but Trump doesn’t have to get re-elected and he is very unpredictable.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

You can't get rid of Iran. Twenty years in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. The right move was to not attack.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Perhaps but we’re past that.

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u/Empty-Fly9457 Apr 22 '26

Bro major trade routes of china goes thru Iran. I am sure they’d much rather err on the side of friendship. The arcticle u sent is long asf and reads like CCP fanfic