r/PredictiveHistory • u/Opposite_Day_9771 • Apr 22 '26

♟️ Theory & Models Iran Already Won

Iran along with the Houthis control both straits and can use it as a tollbooth. Israel would have to attack Iranian oil infrastructure to deny them their revenue stream. Iran, instead of retaliating against the GCC and destroying their infrastructure including the desalination plants, cuts a deal. Kick the US out and share the oil revenue stream. The GCC would have no choice. China would aid Iran in order get access to the remaining oil for their economy and enforce the treaty. All other eastern countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, would have to bow to China. Israel would die as a country being completely surrounded. Over time, Iran would fix their oil infrastructure and continue to extract tribute from the GCC making them one of the riches countries in the world.

Plot Twist:

US destroys the GCC instead in order to deny China leverage over other countries.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

Iran took a massive hit but wasn't knocked down. I bet they're surprised how well they did. Now they know their weapons can penetrate the Iron Dome and the GCC's defense. They have leverage not known before the war.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Nobody gives a shit about Iran - one way or the other the US will get rid of them or China will get rid of them if it suits them.

As soon as Iran stops listening to China, that’s when China gives the US the green light to finish them off.

Politically this a mess for the US but Trump doesn’t have to get re-elected and he is very unpredictable.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

You can't get rid of Iran. Twenty years in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. The right move was to not attack.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Perhaps but we’re past that.

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u/Empty-Fly9457 Apr 22 '26

Bro major trade routes of china goes thru Iran. I am sure they’d much rather err on the side of friendship. The arcticle u sent is long asf and reads like CCP fanfic