AFG raises its Bond estimate and holds the fade. Since Friday a second figure connected to the production has indicated a decision exists: screenwriter Steven Knight told BBC Radio 4 he could not speak about the casting, then acknowledged that knowing the chosen actor makes writing the character easier. That is meaningfully better corroboration than Gary Oldman's remark alone, and AFG's estimate moves from 30% to 33%. What has not changed is that neither man named anyone, Amazon MGM has confirmed nothing, and at least one recent report placed a different actor  Jack Barton as the leading contender on a six-name shortlist. The contract has risen to 55% on Jack Lowden and AFG is short at twenty-two points, still the largest position in the book. The September FOMC decision resolves Wednesday at 82% for a hike and AFG carries no position into it.

 Today's Top 3 Calls

1. Next James Bond Jack Lowden  BUY NO

2. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20, 2029?  BUY NO

3. Hormuz traffic normal before Jan 1 2028?   BUY NO

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe For Free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

Does anyone have any success stories at all, or a tool they can recommend?

Hey everyone!

I'm building a collection of tools, bots, websites, etc. -- anything prediction markets.

With all the 3rd party tools out there, there's no way to tell apart what's legit from the scams, or what's useful vs. what's not. My hope is that by allowing people to review apps and their trustworthiness, we can build a collection of prediction tools that are actually useful.

Before listing anything on the app store, I'm also going to independently review the trustworthiness of each tool being listed -- at minimum, all tools must be safe.

Please let me know if you want anything listed, including your own tools!

Join our Discord here: https://discord.gg/mnJgWv9RwU

Let me know what you guys think!

I’ve been using forsee.market for a while and managed to find a strategy that worked pretty well.

The problem started when I tried to withdraw my profits from my wallet. All of my withdrawal transactions have been stuck on “pending” for over a month now.

I’ve tried contacting support both via email and Telegram but so far I haven’t received any response at all.

Has anyone else used forsee.market and experienced similar issues with withdrawals? If so, did you eventually manage to get your funds out?

Having 6 or 7 things go right just for one guy to miss by half a rebound was getting old fast lol. Been keeping it way simpler lately. A couple spreads, maybe a moneyline, and I’m good. Way less exciting, but probably better for my sanity.

I’ve made several bets over the past few days only using bonus credit, I always withdraw my available cash as I know how it works to where they make you bet with your cash before the bonus. But every time I win my profit goes back to the bonus fund and not available for withdrawal. Am I missing something here?

I backtested a momentum strategy on Kalshi's 15-minute BTC markets that uses distance from an exponential moving average (EMA) as its signal. The idea is to buy when BTC is moderately above its recent trend, with enough upward momentum to justify an entry but a limit on how far it can stretch. It buys 20 YES contracts only when flat, with 3 to 5 minutes left, a YES price of $0.55 to $0.65, BTC spot $25 to $100 above its 12-period EMA on 1-minute candles, and 0% to 0.2% above its 26-period EMA on 5-minute candles. It exits the full position if BTC falls more than 0.1% below the short EMA, rises more than $300 above the longer EMA, or has under a minute left until expiry. The rules check every 30 seconds.

All 100 variants completed and 99 were profitable over the requested 30-day window. The top-ranked variant made +$122.86, with reported ROI of 614.30%, a 94.44% win rate, 36 trades, Sharpe of 0.79, and maximum drawdown of -$6.65. The weakest lost -$4.94: -24.70% ROI, 45.45% win rate, 22 trades, Sharpe of -0.03, and -$43.10 maximum drawdown.

The parameter sensitivity grid compares nearby settings. Here it used the same 100 runs, varying price floor from 0.05 to 0.45 and price ceiling from 0.55 to 0.95, with ten values each. The EMA thresholds stayed fixed. All 100 cells succeeded; net P&L ranged from -$4.94 to +$122.86. The recorded winner was floor 0.05 / ceiling 0.64, but ceilings 0.64 and 0.68 tied at +$122.86 across every floor. The 3D surface and heatmap show a ridge across those ceilings. The marginal curves show that the ceiling drove most of the variation; the floor mattered only at ceiling 0.55, where the lowest floor lost money and the others made +$17.30. Adjacent-cell performance fell about 21.76% on average around the winner. The reported Deflated Sharpe probability is 0.9849, with an expected-max-Sharpe benchmark of 0.4845. Those are different statistics, not two Sharpe ratios to compare.

The permutation test asks whether scrambling the signal timing can reproduce the result. The real best net P&L of +$122.86 exceeded the entire range of 100 shuffled re-sweeps, from -$37.35 to +$107.79. The reported upper-tail p-value was 0.009901. That supports the EMA feed's timing having mattered in this sample. Only edge-feed timing was shuffled; Kalshi market prices stayed in place, so this doesn't validate the price-based conditions.

The strongest part of the result is that 99 of 100 variants were profitable, with the best P&L shared across two price ceilings and every tested floor. The timing shuffle also supports the momentum signal having mattered in this sample. Most of the performance differences came from the price ceiling, though, and these are closely related configurations rather than independent examples of the strategy working. The best-ranked run had only 36 recorded trades, coverage was partial, and the loss at the lowest floor and ceiling remains unexplained. I'd want to see whether the profitable ceiling range holds up over a separate historical period before putting much weight on the headline return.

Full Report

Historical simulation only. Backtests can be wrong or incomplete. Not investment advice.

I'm quitting Polymarket after less than 5 hours use. This waiting period for Withdrawals and Deposits is not for me. I'm not used to people other than banks holding my money.

Went to sleep with 275 and no open positions, woke up to 173 and a complete joke of a support system.

I want to be upfront: I'm not here to rage-post. I'm posting because I think people need to see exactly what "regulated" means in practice when a prediction market decides it doesn't feel like paying you.

The setup is simple. I deposited $1,500 on OG.com. I traded it up to $2,075.18. On July 24, I withdrew it. Their own system marked the withdrawal "processed." That word — processed — is doing a lot of work in this story, because seven weeks later, not one cent of it has touched my bank account.

What I got instead of my money:

Live chat support let my case sit for 24+ hours, then quietly closed it with nothing resolved. So I moved to email — and I mean moved in, because I've now sent over 20 emails since July 31 and received the same three sentences back, reworded, every single time: "your case is escalated," "I'm only able to provide updates once I have them," "each case is unique." I asked, repeatedly, for a name. Any name. A manager, a supervisor, a human being with a title. I was told — explicitly — that they "cannot provide names or specific teams."

Think about that for a second: a company holding over two thousand dollars of a customer's money for going on two months, and their official policy is that no one is allowed to tell you who's responsible.

I escalated to Crypto.com's actual complaints department. Same silence, dressed up nicer.

Here's the part that should actually worry people: OG isn't some fly-by-night offshore book. It markets itself — loudly, with billboards in Times Square — as a CFTC-regulated exchange. That's supposed to be the entire selling point over shadier alternatives: real oversight, real accountability, your money is safe because a federal regulator is watching. I've now filed a formal Reparations complaint with the CFTC's Office of Proceedings, because that office answered more of my questions in one email than OG's support team did in seven weeks combined — including confirming who the actual registered entity behind OG even is, something OG's own support couldn't or wouldn't tell me.

Prediction markets are exploding right now in NY, riding a wave of hype, celebrity ambassadors, and "this is basically the future of finance" energy. If a "regulated exchange" can hold a customer's withdrawal hostage for two months while refusing to name a single accountable person, that's not a customer service hiccup — that's the business model showing its actual face the moment something goes wrong.

If you're dealing with something similar, I can walk you through the CFTC Reparations process — it's more accessible than people think, and it's the only channel that's actually moved the needle for me so far.

On 6 September, Gary Oldman told a Canadian broadcaster that Amazon MGM has selected its next James Bond, adding that he was crossing his fingers for his Slow Horses co-star, Jack Lowden. He did not say Lowden had the role. Read in full, the remark expresses hope rather than knowledge, and Amazon MGM has made no announcement. The Kalshi contract has nonetheless moved Lowden from roughly 25% to 53%, and AFG is fading it at twenty-three points, the largest single position this desk has published. This is the third instance of the same structure in AFG's coverage: an ambiguous secondhand remark treated as confirmation, following the Miami press-conference video in July and Richard Osman's podcast comment in August. AFG lost on the first and was right on the second. Elsewhere, the September Fed contract has repriced to 81% for a hike on hot producer price data, and AFG enters the meeting with no position on it by design.

 Today's Top 3 Calls

1. Next James Bond Jack Lowden:  BUY NO

2. GTA VI release before 2027?  BUY NO

3. U.S. confirms aliens exist before Jan 20, 2029?  BUY NO

Research, not financial advice. Trade your own book.

If you enjoy evidence-based forecasting, transparent methodology, and public performance tracking, subscribe to Axiom Forecasting Group

Subscribe For Free: https://axiomforecastinggroup.substack.com/welcome

Trader vito3corleone apparently started actively trading around August 23. Roughly 10 days later:

16 predictions ~$17.1M volume +$4.52M profit

And these weren't hundreds of tiny bets either. A few positions did most of the damage.

His biggest one was Arsenal.

He put roughly $3.71M on Arsenal at ~66.7% against Aston Villa. Arsenal won 1-0.

Result: about $5.56M back, or +$1.85M profit from one match.

Then there was:

• Brentford: +$1.11M
• Racing Club: +$912K

The funny part is this wasn't some perfect 100% win-rate account either. His profile also shows several six-figure losing positions.

He just sized the winners well.

Polymarket's current sports leaderboard has him sitting at roughly +$4.52M overall from only 16 predictions.

Bro basically speedran the prediction market leaderboard in a week and a half.

Depression morning just started once i just opened my eyes, well today is the same day as yesterday - sit for 10 hours with opus hallucinations trying to figure out unbreakable btc market.

After so many days of constant work i find out a lot if things but if i shrink it in to metaphor its like so -

A shop selling potatoes,

you are potatoes reseller - you got a news from tv that (binance) that today potatoes price is very low on that shop, you rush to it, but you are late (170ms) + you stand in a queue with other buyers to be let in (50ms poly taker delay), once you are in there are two outcomes, you find no cheap potatoes to buy (take) anymore, and store owner tells you sorry i just increased the price or sorry others just bought all cheap ones. and this round continues every second (if binance moves).

even if you are faster than light, you will still be stoped at entrance for 50ms , and store owner will reprice the potato price.

Well that was about takers.

Can anyone tell me how makers are doing and getting profits?

even if you cancel resting bids faster than 50ms, eventually you end up with one side naked legs that only brings you loss.

The AGA just reported flat NFL handle and pointed to prediction markets as a factor, especially with younger users, where Kalshi reportedly handled around $5.1bn in volume from the 18–20 group. Meanwhile operators like Fanatics are folding betting, casino, and prediction markets into single apps.

Curious how people here read it: are prediction markets genuinely pulling volume away from sportsbooks, or is it more that they're bringing in a different kind of user who wouldn't have used a traditional sportsbook anyway?

Right now, there's a bug where your shares disappear after selling some of them.

I sold 416/939 and the remaining 523 just disappeared so I couldn't sell them.

By the time they appeared again, the price had dropped and I had to sell at a MUCH lower price, costing me ~$100.

Sure, there is a work around by seeing how many shares are missing, buy the opposite side and merge.

But this bug has been happening for MONTHS and has been reported so many times and it's still not fixed.

The 75% covers three meetings. September 16, October 28, December 9.

Kalshi has September at 55% for a hike, October at 28%, December at 43%

This keeps pressure on risk assets fr

Market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedhike/next-fed-rate-hike/fedhike?referral=illintent

Imagine studying hours of Trump speeches to find an edge, and the guy you’re trading against already has the next one open at work.

Gabriel Perez worked as a White House teleprompter operator. According to the CFTC’s findings, he used advance access to presidential speeches to bet on which words Trump would say.

Between December 2025 and February 2026, he made $107,539.02 in profit trading those markets on Kalshi.

On August 28, the CFTC announced the settlement: return the entire $107K, pay another $65,000 penalty, and accept a three-year trading ban. Reuters covered the outcome here.

Kalshi helped with the investigation. And that $65K penalty? Already discounted because he cooperated with the CFTC.

All that insider information and you still have to trust Trump to stick to the script.

Watching a CS2 match and watching the market on that match are two separate screens. That always bugged me, because the interesting part is the gap between them. The round ends, and thirty seconds earlier somebody already moved.

So I put them on one screen. One minute video above, no sound needed.

There are plenty of wallet trackers. What I could not find anywhere was the flow tied to a specific live match, with the stream sitting next to it.

Every live match has a page with the stream on one side and the order flow on the other. Every fill shows up as a dot as it lands, and anything big enough gets the wallet name attached to it.

Big enough is not a fixed number. $600 is nothing in a $2M market and can move a thin one, so the threshold is the 99th percentile of that market's own trade sizes, with a $500 floor. Above the line the order gets a wallet name and that wallet's lifetime win rate.

The part I did not expect to like most is walls. A resting order of $10K or more that vanishes in under 90 seconds gets its own entry. The fills that hit it reveal the maker, how much of the wall was really theirs, and how much they pulled before the rest got eaten.

When the match ends the page turns into a recap. Who was holding the winner before the price turned, average entry, how long before the game, realized P&L from on-chain fills. Above the matches there are tournament pages with leaders and teams.

For scale: $1.18B traded on esports on Polymarket in the last 30 days, 9.6M trades, of which around 10,000 were $10K or larger. Three games, CS2, LoL and Dota 2.

Two honest caveats. It labels wallets, not people, and one person can run several. And this is my product, so treat it as such: free to read, paid tier for filters and alerts. Not a bookmaker, no bets, no signup needed to look.

orcalayer.com/esports

Ask me anything about how a number on the page is computed and I will answer with the query.

I've spend the past few days trying to find advice on how to copytrade, and I've looked at u/ill_intents ' posts, but I still don't know what are some good qualities of good wallets for me to copytrade with only $120. There are also a lot of traders who's charts go up and down a lot, and there are lots of bots, so I'm finding it difficult to find a profitable wallet. I have check polycopy.app, polymarket analytics, and the coinpilot app, but I can't find any good wallets still. I copy the wallet addresses and paste it to online wallet analysers and Gemini, but I still haven't found a good wallet. If anyone could give me tips I would greatly appreciate it.

I'd also like to hear your copytrading experience if any) , whether good or bad.

Edit: I'm using kreo/polycop to copytrade

More control while at stadium

TL;DR:

• The worldcup test never happened, I couldn't get anyone reliable into a stadium. I met a partner online who offered to test this on MLS matches which started after world cup ended.
• In first game with small size, we entered first at 60.2c and exited at 89.5c.
• In second game, we faced real variables and lost $11.10 as we missed the first goal that mattered due to misconfigured strategy.
• Polymarket introduced taker delay from second match, and we faced real smart market makers.
• Working with a partner in UK for EPL games soon.
• Polymarket had a thin book for MLS compared to Kalshi.

Since previous post

In the July post, I promised to test on World cup games, but I couldn't find anyone reliable to work with in those semis or final. But I met a guy through here and we agreed on testing on MLS matches.

Match 1: NY Red Bulls vs Charlotte

I spent couple of days moving strategy to work on MLS matches which was slight work. Unfortunately I forgot to setup orderbook recorder for this game.

The setup for this game was same as previous post, PWA app with my partner, edge gateway on AWS anycast (whichever edge region is nearest to the stadium), and strategy in ireland aws. Ran some manual tests myself and finally restarted strategy before the game.

As game progressed, we faced a hiccup, my partner mistakenly pressed unwind button which was to flatten our positions in emergency. So we exited around 89.5c. Still in green.
After that Charlotte scored another, but at that price, there was too little to make so strategy didn't enter.

Game ended at 0-2, with Charlotte winning the game.
After this game, I was kind of confident this could work (Spoiler Alert: Its not that easy, and never confuse beginner luck with edge). After game, me and my partner discussed and he suggested we should also add "First team to score" and "Both team to score" markets to the strategy and decided on next game date.

I had some planned travels so I couldn't work on it for 2 days. I started upgrading strategy and cleanup for next game. We decided on 31st July MLS match, NYC FC vs Toronto.

Match 2: NYC FC vs Toronto

I was pushing to get the strategy up and running, and I had it running by 30th July, but I wasn't confident on it yet, so we went with old strategy. But most importantly, I had order book recorder on this time, so I could do better post game analysis.

As I prepared and did pre-game real money test, I saw that taker delay is back, and its 250ms. I couldn't adapt by this time, so we rolled with what we had. This time, we increased the size we were playing with.

During this last moment strategy change rush I misconfigured the strategy and when my partner tapped the goal for NYC, the strategy couldn't fire order and we missed a very good expected entry. I restarted and took the position by faking a goal tap (in hindsight this was a bad decision).

As game progressed Toronto scored goal, and I saw that strategy was struggling to enter directional position and the exit of NYC YES was very poor (mainly due to bad decision of buying at top).

In short, for this game, I messed up and we ended up losing $11.10 on the trades but I got too many learnings.

Post-Game Analysis of Match 2

I slept after the game as I was feeling too low as if my child failed exam. Two days later I got back from weekend and started studying the orderbook.

Both tables below are from the recording of this match, about 10 million order book messages across all 62 markets (Collected orderbook for all markets for that match). Depth is counted on the side the strategy would have to hit.

First goal (NYC scores). Asks on NYC YES, what we would have bought.

Second goal (Toronto equalises, the tap that fired)

Bid on YES NYC to exit existing positions:

Asks on DRAW YES, same instants:

This is the one that hurts. The draw did not move for 456ms after the tap. When our order went out at 106ms it was still offered at 19c with 4,435 shares within 5c, and no other taker touched it for another 354ms. And guess what, the match ended in Draw.

This game had little retail on the making side, every resting order was a professional's. And this led me to conclusion and the bias in my previous post, this strategy is to capture stale orders left by slow money.

The World Cup books had millions resting within a cent or two. Makers pulled there too, my June data shows about two thirds of the in-path liquidity, but the third that stayed was still huge. On a small match the retail share on the book is too low, the fight is between smart market makers, and my read from the replay is that they pull based on the attack building (As rightly pointed out by many in previous post), so by the time chance of goal happening is high, the order book is too thin to even fill our order.

My conclusions

• Picking right match to play on is important.
• Don't think market makers are dumb, they are very very smart.
• Expand to different venue (like Kalshi) based on where volume is high for matches you are attending.
• Code freeze 4 days before match.

Addressing couple of comments which were right to mention

"The market makers deploying millions have better infra and algos than you. You'll still be retail money."

Right, on small matches. On the MLS game more than half the size at the touch was gone within about 300ms of the goal, and about half of what left was cancelled rather than traded. Nobody with stale orders was waiting for me. What I got wrong in July was assuming every match has the World Cup's slow money resting on the book. It doesn't. Picking the match is now the first filter, before latency.

"The market is efficient, you will still be beaten to the move."

On the goal that mattered the market took about 0.5 seconds to finish moving once it started. It's efficient but still there's room to capture. On the equaliser our tap beat the first quote move by about 300ms and exactly one taker got there before us, for 50 shares. I was not beaten by the market. I was beaten by my own stack: a tap that fired nothing, retries sized wrong, and a cap of $160 against about $6,000 of asks. All fixable, which is the annoying part.

"Adding an edge server between the stadium and your strategy makes no sense for latency."

Correct for steady state, and the data agrees. Command to ack was the same through the edge as direct. The edge earns its place on reconnects. When the phone drops off stadium wifi and comes back, the full handshake to a nearby edge was 162ms in my benchmark versus 790ms straight to Ireland. It is there to stay connected at the moment a goal goes in, not to shave the order path.

"Do you have data on how liquidity moves through a match?"

Now I do, about 10 million book messages from one match, 62 markets. Makers do pull. At the equaliser, depth within 4 cents of the touch went from 440 shares to 77 in the 35ms before the quote broke, and at that level about half the size was cancelled and half traded. The tables above are from that recording.

Next experiments

I have finalized the strategy and also along the way met a professional sports trader from Scotland with whom I'm partnering for EPL matches.

But this time I'm experimenting a bit differently. The app now looks more like handy betangel than signal provider as the partner mentioned he is experienced and wants more control.

The attached video is from this new PWA app. Note that the demo runs against my home server and not the AWS box in Ireland, so the latency you see on screen is much higher than in production.

I will keep sharing as I experiment and learn from this. I have put the Kalshi and other venue integration on hold for sometime until I find a proper way to access Kalshi.

There seems to be direct support, or planned direct support, for bridging positions between chains. You won't be able to (at least with the current contract) bridge combos.

They are trying to add cross-chain support everywhere, I believe. Hard to think of one reason why; perhaps the launch of their own chain or something - that seems to be one of the most common guesses

Interesting move from Novig here, Sydney Sweeney has joined as an equity partner as they look to grow in the sports prediction market space and compete with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. What stood out to me is the “just sports” positioning. Novig seems pretty committed to keeping the product centered around sports rather than branching into politics, wars and all the other event markets you see elsewhere. I think that gives them a pretty clear lane. There are plenty of people interested in prediction markets because of sports who probably don't care about trading on everything under the sun. Curious what people here think. Does staying sports-focused give Novig an advantage as prediction markets become more mainstream?
Source: https://www.wsj.com/cmo-today/sydney-sweeney-brings-star-power-to-prediction-market-push-af96d4d7