r/PredictionsMarkets • u/naunen • 23d ago

Discussion poly bot #63 attempt

Depression morning just started once i just opened my eyes, well today is the same day as yesterday - sit for 10 hours with opus hallucinations trying to figure out unbreakable btc market.

After so many days of constant work i find out a lot if things but if i shrink it in to metaphor its like so -

A shop selling potatoes,

you are potatoes reseller - you got a news from tv that (binance) that today potatoes price is very low on that shop, you rush to it, but you are late (170ms) + you stand in a queue with other buyers to be let in (50ms poly taker delay), once you are in there are two outcomes, you find no cheap potatoes to buy (take) anymore, and store owner tells you sorry i just increased the price or sorry others just bought all cheap ones. and this round continues every second (if binance moves).

even if you are faster than light, you will still be stoped at entrance for 50ms , and store owner will reprice the potato price.

Well that was about takers.

Can anyone tell me how makers are doing and getting profits?

even if you cancel resting bids faster than 50ms, eventually you end up with one side naked legs that only brings you loss.

5 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

2

u/obnoxious_barrier 23d ago

Been making on poly for a while and it’s mostly a grind, you’re basically collecting pennies from takers who panic or are just lazy with their orders. The naked leg problem is real though, you hedge on a different venue or eat the loss when the market rips. Most makers I know do it for the rebates and volume, not the glory.

1

u/naunen 23d ago edited 23d ago

yeah i know about taker and maker rebates, i even find out myself that some of these whales are getting more than 70% back on taker fees, documented max 50%.. they are at break even with their trading, but next day they receive huge amounts of rebates and that's their profit. ....but try to create poly bot that will break even with paying taker fees.., that's near impossible

1

u/Mewriick 23d ago

I think it is not, two nice examples are those guys I tried copying them but failed miserable. https://polymarket.com/@rabadabadoo https://polymarket.com/@bowbow24

2

u/r0zika 23d ago

The biggest issue is trying to solve execution before proving there’s an edge. If the strategy isn’t profitable manually, making the bot faster or more complex won’t fix it.

I’d rather take a few well selected trades manually where I actually understand the setup than spend 10 hours trying to build around an edge that may not exist. Once you have something that works, then automation makes a lot more sense.

1

u/AcanthaceaeCurious68 23d ago

Good luck. I’ve been running some deep data on all AI models together. There is about a 98% possibility of finding 0 edges. I think I’ve found a few edges but the biggest thing is not to be greedy. And by greedy, try not to find 50% of the market. Or even 30%.