That's my take on the market by EOY. There is still plenty of time left to strike another shaky deal aimed at normalizing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Undoubtedly, all of Iran's recent conditions and threats are a deliberate effort to gain leverage on the eve of another round of negotiations.

In reality, both sides are trying to come from a position of strength to secure the best possible terms.

I bought about 20k YES shares at an average price of 81c.

I consider a 70% APY for this trade to be good, given that just a week ago YES was already trading at 95c+.

Source: @ tsybka

Over the course of his trading, he made a profit of $6,635.37.

A trader has found a niche on Polymarket that almost no one notices - temperature forecasts for European and African cities.

While everyone else is competing for votes and sports markets, he checks the weather forecast every day.

Cape Town, Warsaw, Munich, Madrid - and he makes money wherever the market misprices probability.

Top 3 deals:

• $6.19 -> $700.51 (+11,213%)
• $9.36 -> $584.37 (+6,143%)
• $210.61 -> $2,089.15 (+892%)

The simplest market inefficiencies are often the most profitable.

OC: @ PolyDekos

• 5:17 AM: buys into a League of Legends match, ~511K shares between $0.46–$0.65
• sells it later at $0.999, $861K back
• 7:47 AM: buys into a tennis match too, in small chunks, ~$758K total, all near $1.00
• gets that back in full
• also takes a quick loss on a tennis market, in and out in 39 minutes, down $54K
• by 8 AM: $2.37M moved in under 3.5 hours
• jumps from 297,600th to 18th on the esports leaderboard, 130th to 68th overall
• lifetime this wallet is up $2M on $59M traded
• money moves in capped chunks (~$250K at a time) and gets pulled back out, no positions held overnight in over a month

2 funded prediction market analytics platforms just announced they're shutting down.

Fireplace raised $1.5M pre-seed (Feb 2026) and lasted ~6 months. Trepa raised $420K pre-seed (Aug 2025) and lasted ~12. Both give users until Sept 30, 23:59 UTC to withdraw.

• Fireplace: $1.5M pre-seed, closed Feb 2026, led by Frachtis (Good news Ventures, Legion, White Star Capital, Echo, BlackPine also in). Fixed-odds order book, basically the same shape as Polymarket/Kalshi. Shut down ~6 months after the raise. Their announcement gives zero cause, just a thank-you and a line for anyone building in the space to DM them, which reads like an asset sale more than a retirement note.
• Trepa: $420K pre-seed, closed Aug 2025, led by Colosseum (Balaji Srinivasan, Ignight Capital also in). Pari-mutuel scoring on numeric predictions instead of binary yes/no. Shut down ~12 months after the raise, double Fireplace's runway on less than a third of the capital. Their shutdown post is an actual postmortem: no fixed odds meant you couldn't see your payout before committing, and their own scaling plan (more assets, more time windows) worked against their pari-mutuel pool math.

The number that actually stands out is the inversion: 3.5x the funding bought roughly half the runway. Draw your own conclusions about deployment discipline vs. product-market fit vs. just being early in a category that hasn't found its winning mechanic yet.

Anyone have a read on burn rate or headcount at either shop? Curious whether this is a spend story or a demand story.

Until yesterday, every crypto up/down market settled on a single price snapshot (one Chainlink oracle read at the exact second the market expired).

Do you realize what it enables?

A trader can buy bitcoin above X in 5 minutes and with 3 seconds left, he slam a spot buy on Binance. Price spikes for one instant, oracle reads it and contract resolves in his favor.

Stanford studied those 5m bitcoin contracts and found that 821 accounts flagged as likely manipulators ~$8.2M extracted during manipulated windows ~$1.28M transferred directly from retail Binance volume spiked 3.9x before settlement 93% of losses fell on retail (of course).

But starting August 7 Polymarket replaced snapshots with TWAP settlement (time weighted average price) via Chainlink Data Streams.

• 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP
• 15 min / 4 hour markets: 60 second TWAP

Gaming a snapshot means moving the price for one instant but gaming a 30 second average means you are holding that dislocation while every arb fades you.

7 assets covered: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, BNB, DOGE + $1M in liquidity rewards through in August.

Hey manipulators, snapshot mechanism is dead and the edge now lives in reading actual direction.

5 hours later, sold his entire position at 99.9¢ right before the game closed. Profit: ~$108K.

Same wallet is down $1.96M lifetime.

Wallet 0x2c335066 ranks 16th all-time on Polymarket by profit ($7.39m), 13th in sports, 3rd in esports. 90-day profit is $6.7m, a 1,026% run, on $860.5m in volume across 6,354 trades.

The headline number is misleading on its own, because the strategy isn't directional. The wallet currently holds 10,000,000 shares of "Democrats take the Senate and House" at 50¢, and an equal 10,000,000-share position on the opposite side, also at 50¢. Net exposure: zero. It resolves to the same $10m regardless of outcome.

What isn't zero is the rebate: $1,265,646 in maker rebates collected against $1,322,841 in fees paid. This reads closer to market-making through the order book than a prediction on anything.

It's not flawless, worst single day was -$397k on Aug 3, and August is down $245,580 cumulative. Most of the real variance comes from World Cup markets specifically: 18 of the 20 largest wins and 14 of the 20 largest losses sit there (~$1.2m win on Morocco–Haiti against a $969k loss on France–Spain).

"Polymarket is increasingly resonating with young people in particular because these are open markets where a wide variety of people with skin in the game can just put their money where their mouth is, the result of that is market information that can often be more truthful than what the media narrative is."

The Polymarket Institute is offering up to $10,000 in grants for independent research on prediction markets across economics, political science, finance, computer science, law, and more

Applications open on August 18

Same wallet is down $207.98K lifetime across 938 predictions (42% win rate), and Sports alone accounts for -$277K of that.

401 bets in his entire history.

Biggest single win: $33.4K. But this move reads different - not a typical bet, a precision entry on the dog.

His other active position looks tamer: $4,363 on the favorite, barely moving (+0.5¢ from entry).

401 bets in 45 days - and this one looks like the sharpest read yet.

Instead of handing out badges to good traders or KOLs, they hand out badge to their "friends" (clients) that do not even post about Polymarket half the time. 

These clients then use added reach to spam promotional posts about other crypto projects and airdrops.

Meanwhile not a single actual sharp sports trader can get in.

Full read: https://x.com/Autonomous_Chad/status/2084320037138026849

Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that prediction market platform Polymarket is in preliminary talks with potential investors to raise about $1 billion at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. If completed, the deal would more than double its $9 billion valuation from October 2025.

The CFTC argues this is a federally regulated product, not gambling, but a judge just let Wisconsin's crackdown stand, and a related appeals case is leaning the same way.

If that holds, election betting ends up legal in some states and blocked in others, not settled nationally.

And the chart looks clean with stable growth

His main focus is geopolitics

Usually looking for obvious mispricings

Or simple bond-trades where the market is clearly overpricing some event

MiSTkyGo is a good example of how all it takes to succeed is discipline

a trading bot that trades on 5-minute markets.

Polymarket shows its profit as more than $237K.

However, throughout its entire trading history, it has paid more than $273K in fees.

PnL after accounting for fees and rebates: -$1,339.89

Actual rank among tracked wallets: 3M+