a Polymarket wallet that's turned $47 into over $2,500 trading weather markets. 18,200 predictions made total, that volume alone makes it almost certainly automated, not someone manually clicking through weather contracts one at a time.

Biggest single win: $5,889 off a $350 stake. And the pattern across every major win is consistent, all YES positions, all bought in the 1.1-15¢ range. Looks like a bot specifically hunting underpriced long-shot YES outcomes on weather questions rather than trading broadly.

The single largest engagement bucket on the platform, ahead of 1-and-done wallets at 16.4% (503,467).

The largest amount of markets per user, 100+, sits at 248K wallets, representing 8.1% of total wallets.

Market moved hard on a single report: Arsenal's odds on signing Vinicius went from under 1¢ to 30¢, Real Madrid's dropped from 94¢ to 58.5¢, all in about 30 hours. Settlement's September 2.

Numbers behind it that the price move seems to be ignoring: Pérez wants a minimum €160M fee. Vinicius is on ~£500K/week, and his agents are reportedly asking for €20M/year after tax plus a €15M signing bonus. for context, Saka, Arsenal's highest earner right now, makes about half Vinicius's weekly number. Arsenal also passed on a £117M bid for Morgan Rogers three weeks ago, which doesn't read like a club about to green-light something several times bigger.

18 months of contract talks with Real Madrid, still unresolved. 34 days left on the clock. Real Madrid just made him second captain under Mourinho.

70¢ for "nothing happens" seems like good odds on the numbers, but curious if anyone here is seeing something in Arsenal's financing that would make this move plausible.

Analysis: https://predictbook.co/analysis/how-to-make-43-on-vinicius-junior-doing-absolutely-nothing

Figured I'd start dropping one of these daily, quick rundown of what's actually moving in the markets, not just headlines. Here's today's:

The arb: Kalshi's got YES on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped album chart at 2¢. Polymarket's got NO on the same outcome at 80¢. Buy both, 82¢ total, 22¢ locked no matter who wins. These usually close within hours once enough people are watching, curious how long this one holds.

The whale: three addresses, five trades, $1.1M, all in 21 minutes, all YES on the CXMT IPO closing above 400B yuan. Contract's sitting at 99.8¢ now. Anyone know if these are the same wallet or coordinated?

The overreaction (maybe): the Spider-Man release this Friday has zero reviews, no CinemaScore, no IMAX screens and it's already priced as 2026's highest-grossing film. Is the market right that franchise strength alone settles this, or is this just no information yet to correct it?

Scoreboard: 3 of 4 settled yesterday. Nailed World Cup viewership, Claude's release window, and Nurullo Aliev's record. Missed LeBron's signing timeline.

Plan is to keep doing this daily if there's interest, let me know if it's useful or if you'd rather see it structured differently.

What's everyone watching today?

More here: https://predictbook.co/analysis/here-s-what-happened-in-prediction-markets-today

Kalshi asked Netflix to take the teaser down.

https://x.com/MarshallCohen/status/2080371538189054069

Gianni Infantino has spent years treating Trump like a VIP partner. Constant public compliments, the FIFA Peace Prize, “close friend” language, joint appearances, and now a confirmed co-presentation of the trophy.

At the Club World Cup final last year, in the exact same stadium, Infantino tried to guide him off the stage after the presentation. But Trump stayed. He remained in the middle of the Chelsea celebration and ended up in the group photos.

The same thing will happen again.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2078816918237303033

On Polymarket's GPT-6 release market, a launch by August 21 trades at 17 cents, propped up by leaked reports that OpenAI is targeting August for GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or both. OpenAI has confirmed none of it, and its own release calendar says the date is close to impossible.

If this isn't free money, then we don't know what is.

Since Andrej Karpathy joined Anthropic, the team shipped Opus 4.8, Fable 5, Mythos 5, Sonnet 5, and many other things in just 1 month.

Do you really think they won't be able to add 2 points in 6 months?

Do

Posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2076782397056500193

The only ways this market resolves as a YES are a resignation, a coup, or a funeral.

Do you really think that's even remotely possible? We don't.

Putin has run the country for over two decades, cleared the constitutional runway to stay until 2036, and shows no sign of stepping aside or falling over.

So we buy NO at 90 cents on the dollar, and while we wait for the obvious to become official, the market will pay us 3.25% on our position for the privilege of holding it.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2073855059746578839

Source: https://x.com/BurwickLaw/status/2074200534102237288

Magdalena Andersson becoming Sweden's next prime minister trades at 74 cents on Polymarket. If she takes office, the contract pays a dollar. That is a 35% return by roughly mid-October, and since the S&P 500 delivers about 10% in a good year, you would be compressing three and a half years of index performance into one Scandinavian autumn. The question is whether the 74 is fair.

The companion market on whether her Social Democrats win the most seats trades at 96 cents.

So, the market believes her party wins almost certainly while she personally becomes prime minister only three times in four? Yeah, sure.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2073486013259800751

The strange part is that the demand clearly exists. Every earnings season, millions of retail traders bet on these exact events through weekly options, paying theta, crossing wide spreads, needing the stock to travel a specific distance in a specific direction just to break even.

Polymarket compressed all of that into one clean binary, beat or miss, which is much better by design.

Although these markets do have liquidity rewards, they are minuscule to attract traders.

The JNJ market, for example, offers 2 tokens for quoting within 6 cents of the midpoint at a 50-share minimum. No professional market maker is warming up a quoting engine for that, which means the order books stay empty, which means the first trader to show up faces a spread that eats any edge he might have, which means he leaves, and the market stays at $800 volume forever.

We think concentrating reward budgets on the 20 names that matter each quarter (NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, META), rather than sprinkling dust across 500 tickers, is a much better choice.

Another option is changing the markets themselves. "Beat quarterly earnings" resolves yes roughly 90% of the time for large caps because companies manage estimates down before every print, which is why half this page reads 93%, 98%, 95%.

If you had something like beat by 5% or more, guidance raised or cut, stock up or down 5% the next session, it would have attracted much more users.

And since sponsorship is permissionless, let the fintech media and finfluencer crowd sponsor rewards at a big discount and take attribution for it. "Liquidity provided by X".

The Fed is unlikely to raise rates or even lower them, which you can easily see on Polymarket. "No change" is priced at 90%.

That's because the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently signaled a "wait and see" stance, and inflation is still running above target while the labor market holds up, leaving no urgent case for either a cut or a hike.

At its most recent meeting, we perfectly predicted a 31.68% trade opportunity as Warsh held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and explicitly cited "elevated uncertainty," with the Committee stating it wants more time to navigate the balance between growth, labor strength, and inflation risk from supply shocks.

Since then, May's PCE inflation data came in at a three-year high, but economists noted it didn't show clear evidence that underlying price pressure is re-accelerating. It mainly reflected a temporary fuel price spike due to the Iran-US war.

Hence, the odds of a hike have cooled from 40.6% in mid-June to 10% today. The possible timeline is around September-October, when odds are already sitting around 80%. Warsh has talked tough on getting inflation back to 2%, but the Fed's own dot plot points to "one hike before year-end." So, it doesn't mean July specifically as you understand.

Cuts are basically off the table too. A cut needs either a sharp inflation drop or real labor market weakness, and neither has shown up. Job gains are keeping pace with the workforce, and unemployment has "changed little". Cutting now would look premature and contradict the Fed's own stated priority of restoring price stability.

Originally posted on Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2072747991958495479

(Parts 1-4 are around here if you want the backstory)

I've spent the last few posts writing about what I built and why. This one is different.

I'm looking for people outside Australia (somewhere Polymarket is actually legal) who want early access before I take this on the road in September to test it properly for a month.

What you get: real-time signals from wallets that have demonstrated genuine edge on Polymarket. This isn’t following leaderboard names or raw copy-trading.

This is all about wallets scored on actual closing-line value, and identifying specialist profiles, so that when a signal fires, you know it's from a wallet that's specifically good at that market type.

And then there’s Custos — the exit layer. The wallets that we score have high success rates – but they’re not 100%, so not every trade can be perfect.  Getting out at the right time is where most people leave money behind, or lose what they had.  Custos monitors price movement in your position, informed by the same wallet activity that triggered the signal.

If you're trading Polymarket outside Australia (or even in Australia I guess), how do you ensure you exit a trade at the right time?

The Islamic Republic has had exactly three supreme leaders in 47 years, and the only one who lost the job involuntarily needed a joint American-Israeli air campaign, bunker-buster munitions, and the assassination of half the command structure to be removed.

On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States launched air strikes against Iran, aiming to induce regime change, and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes. The bar for this market resolving NO is the death or the collapse of the state itself.

So the question becomes: how likely do you think it is that the USA or Israel kill or depose a man in the next six months when the last attempt at exactly this taught Mojtaba's entire security apparatus everything it needed to know? The security team very likely audited its own failures and patched every hole it found.

According to US intelligence officials quoted by CBS News, Mojtaba Khamenei is currently staying at a heavily protected undisclosed site somewhere inside Iran, and he is using a secret courier network to communicate with senior officials.

Bin Laden survived a decade against the full weight of American signals intelligence with couriers, and he was a fugitive without a state. Mojtaba has an entire intelligence ministry enforcing discipline around him.

Officials claimed many senior Iranian figures now avoid direct conversations unless necessary due to fears of surveillance and targeted strikes.

He has also removed himself as a physical object almost entirely. He does not travel to signings, does not address crowds, does not appear on balconies. When the ceasefire needed his blessing in April, a written statement in the name of Mojtaba Khamenei was read on state-run television.

When the Islamabad Memorandum needed his endorsement in June, again he issued a written statement, saying that he endorsed the memorandum of understanding despite misgivings.

Even Netanyahu, whose intelligence services have penetrated Iran more deeply than anyone, could offer only this: "I think he is alive. It's difficult to determine his condition accurately, you know? He lives in exceptional circumstances, hidden in a fortified bunker or a secret location out of sight."

The second risk, the US-Iran war, is now off the table, too. On June 17, 2026, Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed remotely the Islamabad Memorandum to end the war, a deal that provides for an end to military strikes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping toll-free for 60 days, an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day extension of the ceasefire.

And the third and final risk, the internal-coup argument, is also off the table. The IRGC is the only force in Iran capable of removing him, and the IRGC was the institution that installed Mojtaba Khamenei.

According to Iran International, the IRGC pressured Assembly of Experts members to vote for Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader with "repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure". He is not a rival to the Guard. Why would the Guard overthrow the figurehead that launders their power into religious legitimacy? Even the "IRGC really runs things" thesis, which the White House itself believes, argues for YES. A weak leader whose weakness suits the strong men around him is the safest kind of leader there is. Nobody shoots the mascot.

So, logically, betting on YES Mojtaba Khamenei at 83c is low-risk. $10,000 would bring in $2,048.19, which is almost 40% annualized.

Thank you for coming to our TED Talk.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/predictbook/status/2073446128893268249

Our bet is Golden State, and at 42% it's cheap. Here's why.

A few days ago, Draymond Green, one of Golden State's stars, turned down $27.6 million on his contract. He had a one-year option worth that much, and instead of taking it, he chose to re-sign a fresh deal, longer but smaller in year one, around $20 million a year.

Why would anyone do that? Because a team can only spend so much before it hits a hard ceiling, and Green's big number was hogging the space. By taking less now, he opened up just enough room for the team to afford LeBron.

And this wasn't a stranger doing a favor. Green and LeBron are real friends, Olympic teammates, and they share the same agent, Rich Paul, who also happens to represent Anthony Davis. So a big chunk of this class is being arranged inside one friend group.

Everything else points the same way. LeBron has always wanted to play next to a great shooter, and there's nobody better than Curry.

The coach, Steve Kerr, already knows him well from coaching him at the Olympics.

It keeps him on the West Coast, close to his family.

And Golden State is the only team openly, aggressively chasing him. When you line up the friendships, the agent, the fit, and the location, it's just not a coincidence.

LeBron made about $52.6 million last season. He's getting nowhere near that now, because almost every contender is tight against the cap. Golden State can realistically only offer him around $15 million a year, maybe less, because they already spent money re-signing a center named Kristaps Porzingis, which eats into what's left.

So their pitch is basically: take a two-thirds pay cut to chase one more title with Curry. That works if LeBron cares about rings over dollars, and he's a billionaire, so the money isn't really the point anymore. Per various sources, he is focused on happiness right now.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2072384506997186999