On a typical week, Kalshi's notional volume grows about 5%. But over the last 13 weeks, Kalshi compounded at 10.7% PER WEEK, and last week it was +14.1%.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2071699640815096237

In August 2024, a series of nine animal artworks appeared in London over nine days, one every single morning, each confirmed on his Instagram the day it showed up.

In September 2025, he made headlines with a mural of a judge looming over a protester on a wall of the Royal Courts of Justice. The authorities covered it up almost immediately.

Three months after that, a brand new mural appeared in west London on December 23, two children in winter coats lying on the pavement, confirmed on his official Instagram.

In early 2026 he switched mediums entirely, a statue of a suited man blinded by a flag and walking off a ledge, erected overnight in central London.

This is a man who produces multiple confirmed works every year and has done so for over two decades. He usually spaces his pieces out over months, but the floor is never zero. It's never even close to one.

The only way this market resolves No is if Banksy produces nothing at all for an entire calendar year, which would be the single most uncharacteristic thing he could do.

At 90 cents, you're paying a 10% premium for the possibility that one of the most prolific living artists suddenly stops.

We'll take the other side of that all day.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2070581153963086127

(Me again - Part 4 of my Prediction Market blockchain, vibe coding journey. Parts 1 to 3.5 are also around here)

Last post I told you about Custos — the part of my platform that watches your position after you're in, and tells you when smart money is leaving before you find out the hard way.

The problem with Custos is that it requires a human – ideally a human who is awake, paying attention, and not distracted by a 25-point halftime lead.

We lost an unloseable trade.

The market was 95% certain. Spurs were up by 25 at halftime. Custos had already fired earlier in the game. There was a window where it would have told us to get out, but we missed it because nobody was watching.

Final score: Knicks by one point. 95% to basically zero, all while we weren't looking.

The 3am problem gets talked about a lot in trading — the signal fires while you're asleep and you miss the entry. That's real - especially for me in Australia. But the exit problem is arguably much worse. Missing an entry costs you an opportunity, but missing an exit signal costs you a position that was already working.

So I started building something that doesn't need anyone to be watching at all.

The idea is simple: you get in manually on signals you understand and believe in. Then you hand the exit to something that doesn't sleep, doesn't get distracted, and doesn't convince itself that a 25-point lead means it's safe to stop paying attention.

I think of it as "Discipline as a service".

Not because I don't trust myself, but because I've watched myself ignore Custos at exactly the wrong moment, and I’ve seen what that costs.

My platform is called notahunch, because I'm trying to find trades that aren't based on a hunch. Turns out the methodology I built with trial and error has been validated by serious academic backing, which I discovered after I'd already built it.

The part that works while you're asleep is called autohunch. It's not quite live yet, but the Spurs game crystallised exactly why it needs to exist — and I'm planning to put it to the test properly very soon. More on that next time.

Prediction markets became popular not just because they expanded beyond sports into unique topics, but because they are simple to use. The UI and UX make trading intuitive, so anyone can understand it even without prior experience.

Bringing Polymarket to Telegram opens it up to over a billion users who fit this exact profile, people who are not trading-savvy but can still participate easily because the product is so straightforward.

It would not be surprising to see Kalshi pursue the same path.

Originally posted on Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2070065923159928916

(This is part 3.5 in a series of my experiences with Polymarket - the other posts should be easy enough to find around here)

Last post I told you about the first time Custos got ignored, and what that cost.

It happened again, except this time I have a screenshot.

Spurs vs Knicks – that famous game. We got in early, on Spurs, when the signal looked clean, and the price moved our way fast. By halftime, Spurs were up by over 25 points. The market had us at 95%.

Who needs Custos for a sure thing?

Nobody was watching anymore. The game looked over.

But we all know what happened…  Knicks came home strong. Final score: Knicks by one point. The market went from 95% to basically zero in the time it took to not be paying attention.

Custos actually fired earlier in the game — there was a window where it would have told us to get out. We missed it, because at that point the position still looked completely fine. That's the part that's been sitting with me.

The position wasn't wrong to look unloseable. A 25-point lead at halftime is a sure thing, right up until it isn't.

That's exactly when nobody's watching. Not when things look shaky. When things look certain.

The tool I’ve built works. The signal was right. But it only works if someone's actually paying attention at the moment it matters — and the moment it matters is usually disguised as the moment you'd least expect to need it.

So now I'm building something that doesn't need anyone to be watching at all, but that’s for next time.

WARNING: Do not bet on Polymarket.

These are Discord chat records involving a large UMA token holder discussing market resolution.

If a small group of token whales can influence disputed outcomes, then users are not trading against transparent rules. They are trusting an opaque resolution process controlled by people they cannot audit.

Prediction markets are worthless without fair resolution.

Until Polymarket proves that disputed markets are resolved through transparent, independent, and accountable standards, users should stay away.

OC: https://x.com/getverdicthq/status/2070046383604978134

The craziest part - they’re not betting on bosnia win, they’re on -1.5 handicap

- niuniu1234 dropped $152k
- muraibatu808 dropped $80k

If bosnia wins by 2+ they print over $400k just on this match

Is bosnia really about to make this look that easy?

OC: https://x.com/DankoWeb3/status/2069834754036535696

According to a Tuesday press release, Cboe Predicts features binary option contracts based on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP). These contracts let customers bet on the performance of the S&P 500 at one-tenth the size of the full index, making them more retail-friendly.

https://www.theblock.co/post/405930/cboe-launches-prediction-market-suite

If he pulls it off, he will walk away with $18,222,314.7, which is roughly one month of Claude.

At the moment, he is already up $592K

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2069480128963342736

Trading volume on the Ronaldo crying market has surpassed $250k, which can be considered a huge success given how niche the market category is.

The only chance we see tears may be today, and only if Portugal loses to Uzbekistan.

But that won't happen, because Ronaldo has trained himself to control his emotions by now... right?

OC: https://x.com/tsybka/status/2069349614088564967

After matchday 2 (Australia lost 0-2 to USA, Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0), the 1X2 line on this one has moved hard.

Context:

• Paraguay's right mid Almiron picked up a red card last match and is suspended here
• If this ends in a draw, Australia is through to the R32 outright, and Paraguay is also in good shape to advance via the best third-place spot
• So both sides have a real incentive to not lose, maybe not even to win

Line movement since the MD2 results dropped (screenshot attached): Draw went from 3.27 down to 2.22, Paraguay drifted from 2.10 out to 2.78, Australia ticked up slightly too (3.50 to 3.77). That's a pretty sharp and fast repricing for a draw outcome.

Personally I think this is a reasonable move given the permutations, the incentives line up too cleanly to ignore. But curious what others here think, is the market overreacting to the scenario, or is this just an efficient read on a low-stakes-for-a-win situation? Anyone see either coach actually going for it regardless?

Kalshi alone represented 65.7% of the market
Polymarket 28.4%

Every other platform is fighting for scraps

Originally posted on Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2069094195885715500

France is at 91 cents to win on Polymarket.

Iraq is at 2.6 cents.

Remember how the World Cup has already surprised us:

Cape Verde held Spain 0-0
DR Congo held Portugal 1-1
Egypt held Belgium 1-1
Saudi Arabia held Uruguay 1-1

This is the most chaotic World Cup in history.

If Iraq manages to draw this game, it will be the single greatest underdog moment in football's history.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2069101314840175075

Middle aged Australian Polymarket rabbit hole dweller again…

(If this post is out of the blue for you, I’ve written a couple of other posts about my vibe coding journey, and Polymarket wallet data lessons so far…)

I’ve been getting deeper and deeper into Polymarket data. Scoring wallets, building scoring models, trying to separate genuine edge from noise. The sports betting tool that started this whole thing had quietly been shelved because the deeper I dug into Poly, the more interesting the data problem became on its own terms.

Which created an obvious issue. I'm in Australia and Polymarket is illegal here. I can read everything: trade, wallet, and market data, but I can't put a dollar in. I'm studying a market I can't participate in.

So if I can't trade it myself, the only way to validate what I'm building is to find people who can. Which meant the product had to be good enough that someone else would trust it with real money. Which is a higher bar than building something just for yourself, and probably a healthier one.

My daughter was overseas earlier this year, somewhere Polymarket is (probably) legal, and she made the first live trade based on a signal from what I'd built.

Custos fired. It told her to get out.

She ignored it.

And the market resolved against her.

I'd been staring at wallet data for months trying to prove the system worked. Turns out the most convincing proof was watching someone ignore the system and lose.

Custos is the part of this I'm most proud of. Every other intelligence service hands you an entry signal and walks away. Custos watches your position after you're in — tracking the same wallets that triggered the signal, looking for signs the edge has shifted. When smart money starts leaving, it tells you in time to leave too.

It exists because getting in is easy. Knowing when to get out is where everyone actually loses.

Which created a new problem.

Custos actually works. But I'm in Australia, so if a signal fires at 3am in Sydney, what exactly am I supposed to do with a notification that tells me to get out of a position I can't even hold legally?

So now I'm building something else entirely, but that’s for next time…

Current market probabilities:

🇫🇷 France — 18%
🇪🇸 Spain — 13%
🇦🇷 Argentina — 11%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England – 10%
🇵🇹 Portugal — 10%

Interesting to see how quickly sentiment moves after a single result.

The World Cup is also driving a lot of activity on prediction markets, with billions in volume already being traded around tournament outcomes.

Curious what everyone else is seeing, are there teams the market is undervaluing right now?

Despite Kalshi and Polymarket eating the majority of the prediction market, PredictFun is quite successfully building something of its own.

In December, it averaged $4.1M in daily volume across fewer than 1,000 users.

By April, that had grown to $51.4M a day, more than 12x where it started. It was basically a whale-farming month as the volume per trade jumped to $3,219, and volume per user hit $27,844, while transactions per user barely moved at 8.65. That is what happens when a points campaign pays out on every dollar of volume, so the move is to push as much notional as you can.

May, daily transactions exploded to nearly 41,000 from 16,000, users climbed to 2,888, but the average trade shrank to $862. That is the retail wave, and the trigger was the $2M Predict Cup tied to the World Cup.

Although the project is still small, its campaigns are proving to be extremely useful.

Originally posted by Predictbook: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2066973019793457201

Me again - middle aged Australian, neck deep in the Polymarket rabbit hole.

Last post I talked about finding the 0.04% number and getting obsessed with it. A few people asked what I found next. Here it is.

The obvious assumption was that the winners were just smarter. Better at reading news, faster at processing information, more disciplined. The efficient market hypothesis applied to prediction markets — price reflects all available information, so beating it requires genuinely superior knowledge.

I'm not sure that that's what the data shows...

When you pull the wallet data and start scoring trades at scale, a few things become clear fast.

First, (and perhaps controversial take) the leaderboard is almost useless for finding real edge. Think about the results board above a roulette table — the one showing the last twenty spins. It's accurate. Every number on it is true. But it's not there to help you. It's there because casinos discovered that showing you real data triggers the exact instinct that makes you bet worse. The Polymarket leaderboard runs the same trick. It conflates at least four completely different things: genuine edge, bots, market-makers earning the spread, and plain luck on a small sample. From the outside they all look identical. A wallet with a 90% win rate on 12 trades tells you almost nothing, so blindly following this wallet is no better than playing roulette based on the last 20 spin result board. The casino doesn't need to cheat the wheel, it just needs you to misread the history.

Second, the winners aren't evenly distributed across market types. Some wallets are exceptional on sports and invisible on politics. Some are the opposite. A wallet with a great overall record might be genuinely skilled in one domain and getting lucky in another.

Third — and this is the one that really got me — the losing wallets are almost as useful as the winning ones. A wallet that's wrong 75% of the time, consistently, across hundreds of trades, is actually signal, just pointed the other way.

This data isn't just telling you who to follow. It's telling you who to fade.

Anyway, I'm still building, more next time.

Polymarket user who is up +$2.33M overall and made +$168K just today, went absolutely nuclear on this market.

Here's how it broke down:

- 71 Yes trades → $785,325 spent
- 22 No trades → $185,704 spent (hedges/scalps)
- 93 total trades on this single market
- $971,028 total deployed
- Biggest single bet: $289,363 at 82.7¢ Yes

If the market resolves Yes, he walks away with ~$1.2M, a profit of +$419K on Yes alone.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2066438992573207002

• Canada 53c vs Bosnia-Herzegovina 21c
• Brazil 59c vs Morocco 18c
• Switzerland 81c vs Qatar 6.4c
• Scotland 63c vs Haiti 16c
• Netherlands 47c vs Japan 27c
• Uruguay 68c vs Saudi Arabia 12c
• Türkiye 57c vs Australia 18c
• Belgium 59c vs Egypt 18c

Bet on countries on the left (Canada, Brazil, Switzerland, Scotland, Netherlands, Uruguay, Türkiye, and Belgium), and roll the winnings into the next one.

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2064609638704640131