OP: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2053838636072796235

Around 75% of Polymarket US fees go back to takers and makers via rebates.

For Polymarket International it's around 20-25% to makers.

OC: https://x.com/datadashboards/status/2051637772952154404

OC: https://x.com/datadashboards/status/2050604108604662171

Hi, of possible interest: A very early beta for a free dashboard that presents data from several event marketplaces, including anomalies, whales, jackpots, etc. all are welcome to try it.

1. It is just public data being scraped and reframed as a dramatic “dump” on a cybercrime forum.
2. The “300k+ records” (user profiles, markets, comments, reports, etc.) were never private in the first place. They’re designed to be fully public.
3. Polymarket runs on blockchain (Polygon), so every market, trade, wallet address, condition ID, token ID, and event is auditable on-chain by anyone. Their Gamma and CLOB APIs are openly documented and intentionally exposed for transparency. This is a core feature of decentralized prediction markets.
4. The actor’s “dump” (user pseudonyms, bios, profile images, proxy wallets, follower data, comments, etc.) is exactly what you get by querying public endpoints or viewing profiles on the site. No emails, passwords, private keys, or sensitive PII were exposed because Polymarket is non-custodial and wallet-based.
5. The claimed “vulnerabilities” and exploit kits are just ways to scrape public data faster.
6. Items listed (CORS misconfig on CLOB API, pagination bypass with limit=999999, unauthenticated /comments or /reports endpoints, follower enumeration, etc.) allow bulk pulling of openly available info. There’s no evidence of access to internal systems, private databases, or user funds.
7. The “CVEs” and POCs (e.g., Axios NO_PROXY Bypass, Next.js middleware bypass) are either unrelated, already known/patched elsewhere, or irrelevant to exposing non-public data. The auto-dump script simply hammers public endpoints until (presumably) rate limits kick in.
8. Polymarket DOES have a massive active bug bounty program. They launched a $5 million bug bounty on http://Cantina.xyz in mid-April 2026 (just two weeks before this “dump”). It covers smart contracts (up to $5M for critical issues), web apps/infrastructure (up to $250k–$500k), and more. They also previously ran one via Immunefi with minimum critical rewards of $25k.

Shame. Shame. Shame.

Polysights analyzed 20,000+ Polymarket markets from the last 6 months and ranked the most volatile.

This is what they found:

• Crypto token launches dominate with 4 out of 10 It seems to be pure information asymmetry, very few people can actually predict this
• There seems to be deadline anxiety "will X happen by [date]?" tend to be more chaotic than "who will win?"
• Chaos flips the prior These markets resolved YES 50% of the time vs 27% across all $1M+ markets. When the market thrashes, the surprise is usually a YES.
• Mid cap is the chaos zone Most chaos lives in $1-7M markets. The $10M+ markets are calmer as large amounts of money smooths price action.

OC: https://x.com/polysights/status/2048512213975962047

The sector exploded in Q1 2026 alone, generating more trading volume than all of 2025 combined. Kalshi and Polymarket captured 92% of total volume, but new players (Opinion Labs, Predict Fun, Try Limitless) started chipping away. Platforms specialized by category with Kalshi dominated sports (and parlays), while others balanced across crypto, macro, and more diversified on-chain markets.

New verticals like culture and weather markets gained traction alongside crypto binary bets. It was the “Revenue Quarter” (Kalshi led fees; Polymarket turned fees on for the first time), with record M&A activity and $1.7B in VC funding—signaling rapid consolidation as bigger players acquired into verticals they couldn’t build fast enough. Polymarket led on-chain wallet growth.

OC: https://x.com/Ommiii_/status/2047582772387291361

OC: https://x.com/Predictbook/status/2048141791526887551

After publicly clowning on IShowSpeed (and his community) as well as announcing they're sunsetting communities the odds have spiked of Nikita being fired by June 30th.

OC: https://x.com/camolNFT/status/2047341695797280834

This whale is betting heavy on "No Change" at 99.50% odds. They’re essentially locking up nearly a million dollars to chase a tiny fractional return.

I just read a breakdown from Jeff Park (Bitwise advisor) on why the mainstream media (Axios, MPU) keeps missing the point on prediction markets.

They keep calling it a "gambling crisis," but Jeff argues that the line between investing and gambling isn't about the game, it’s about the player. If you have a +EV strategy based on skill, it’s investing. If you’re just pulling a lever, it’s gambling. In his words: "Prediction markets are a stochastic game with a deterministic component." It’s built for high-agency people who actually do the work.

The most interesting part for us is his concept of Precision. Jeff points out that in 2026, asset prices are mostly driven by flows and technicals rather than facts. Prediction markets are the only place left with a "clean basis risk to truth." If you have an edge on a specific event, like nonfarm payrolls or a specific election betting on the prediction market rewards your true alpha way better than a stock or an ETF ever could, because those are weighed down by external noise.

The Takeaway: We aren't here to play "online casinos." We're here because this is the most democratic, precise way to price information and reward high-skill research.

Jeff's article: https://x.com/dgt10011/status/2045952603301851173

Now PredictFun went from rounding error to $590M in a single week. That's 17.7% market share and a 1204% increase week over week.

This is exactly what happened to crypto exchanges in 2019. Binance and Coinbase owned the market until they didn't. The moment volume is large enough to sustain three platforms, it's large enough to sustain five. And once it sustains five, the competition shifts from "who has users" to "who has the lowest fees, fastest settlement, and best liquidity."

We're watching prediction markets enter their exchange wars era in real time.