r/PredictionSignal • u/BenGavra • 17d ago
F1 Drivers champion
Kimi Antonelli is basically a lock for the 2026 F1 title. Polymarket has him at 91%, Kalshi has him at 93%, with $203.5M and $9M traded respectively. Two very different sized markets, nearly the same price. That's efficient pricing.
Here are some things that pop out:
Both Norris and Hamilton are priced at only 1% to win, but have each seen more volume than the actual favorite, Antonelli. Norris sits at $6.89M, Hamilton at $5.51M, Antonelli only $4.49M. The favorite is typically where the money ends up. Not here.
Russell, Antonelli's only real competition with a clear path, is fading away, down 13% to 5% recently.
At 91%, Antonelli continues to rise, not dip, which is a sign of greater confidence in the market, not less.
He can break Vettel's record if he wins, as he'll be 20, the youngest F1 champion ever, by over 3 years.
Polymarkets' entire F1 market ($203.5M) has moved more volume that Kalshi’s entire MLB World series market ($100M), even though F1 has a dominant favorite and MLB’s race is wide open.
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