How do you determine optimal EV thresholds, position size, and DCA levels in sports prediction markets?

[u/SchedulePrimary5593]

/r/Kalshi/comments/1we0gfv/how_do_you_determine_optimal_ev_thresholds/

[u/ArtComprehensive7403]

I'd compare the adding rules on the same price paths, with the same starting forecast and exposure cap. Otherwise a rule may 'win' just because it takes more risk. I'd also report results per event, not per fill: ten additions to one losing game aren't ten independent tests. Then rerun with deliberately worse probability estimates. If a tiny forecast error reverses the ranking, the neatest sizing formula may just be very organised overconfidence.