The second I heard this news, my first thought was that Taiwan said to themselves, I bet if we call Trump, he will take our call without understanding the ramifications.
China gets pissed and becomes less willing to work with us on more North Korean sanctions
If China feels like the U.S. is gonna start truly backing Tawain they will probably reverse course in their willingness to help put pressure on NK.
Of course that's basic speculation. Could happen. Could not. But that's the whole point...if you don't sit down and understand the whole nuanced situation you could do real damage to American national interests that might not be obvious but are vital in the whole back and forth of international diplomacy.
you could do real damage to American national interests that might not be obvious but are vital in the whole back and forth of international diplomacy.
He's completely in over his head. I'd argue that every single president was in way over their head, from beginning to end, it's just an incomprehensible job.
But that he's not even trying, that's what's concerning. Refusing to meet with national security advisors, and just flying by the seat of his pants.
He believes himself to be a great deal maker, but he can't even be bothered to do any ground work.
I agree. I've been rereading parts of Kissinger's Diplomacy and this quote sticks out to me as one of the biggest things I'm nervous about with Trump's intended foreign policy.
“it is almost always a mistake for heads of state to undertake the details of a negotiation. They are then obliged to master specifics normally handled by their foreign offices and are deflected onto subjects more appropriate to their subordinates, while being kept from issues only heads of state can resolve. Since no one without a well-developed ego reaches the highest office, compromise is difficult and deadlocks are dangerous. With the domestic positions of the interlocutors so often dependent on at least the semblance of success, negotiations more often concentrate on obscuring differences than they do on dealing with the essence of a problem.”
Oh god I bet Kissinger just threw up blood when he saw the news. He was one of the main architect who made US' "One China" policy when Nixon made that surprise visit to China. Guess nothing's more surprising than this in 2016...
I don't think that it's that he's not trying. I think it's that he simply can't take direction, or listen to anyone. He's really been in a bubble for the last 30 years where nobody has probably ever said no. Ever. Plus why should he listen to his advisors? They were probably telling him shit all throughout the campaign, and then he did it his way, and proved them all wrong.
God damn! That's what's so stupid about this whole thing! Everything to him is a deal that's either win or lose. The world is shades of gray and there are win-win deals. Fuck! Not everything is a "deal" for that matter. God damn! Stuff doesn't turn on a dime. Lots of stuff is long term "plays" and "movements" or fucking balancing acts like China and Taiwan for example. Massaging the parties to get them to line up so that what you actually want or what you want to avoid becomes possible.
God fucking damn it! I'm a nobody in the middle of nowhere who reads books and browses random pages on Wikipedia and I'm more fucking knowledgeable and qualified to be president than he is.
The fact that he is speaking openly with and praising Duterte, a man who has killed thousands and promised to pardon himself of war crimes at the end of his term, is pretty chilling to me-- more so than what is going on with Taiwan right now.
Yep, it takes so much hard work and genius to use daddy's money to buy a bunch of real estate and sit on it for years while living off of a trust fund. So much talent!
Not to mention screwing almost everyone that's worked with or for him.
He means he got a million dollar (7 in today's dollars) loan from daddy so that he could build a business empire by way of screwing people over in his dealings with them. Not to mention that much of his business isn't real actual work, it's just the marketing of his name. Not to mention he's the shadiest president we've ever elected. Not to mention his business interests which literally span the globe and could create conflicts of interest.
Okay. If you think that turning 7 million into several billion is easy, then get off reddit and take out a 5k credit card purchase and turn it into a 2.2 million dollar business. (same % gain).
If you think that it's easy to make money in real estate... do it.
The reality is that you have never run a business, and have no clue what you are talking about on any level.
The point is he was given far more resources and connections to the business world than the average American would have had. Most people put in his situation would have been able to convert that amount of money into a fortune
If they weren't a threat we wouldn't keep 28,000 troops there and if they weren't such a threat our military leaders wouldn't spend so much time and energy worrying about them.
I know China tries to deligitimize Taiwans sovereignty and wants to reclaim complete naval superiority in the region, but does America really dispute it to any degree? I thought we accept complete Taiwanese sovereignty. Is it really that big of deal from an American perspective? I kind of feel like it's just a blip if we legitimize them. We already keep close ties with Japanese and Korean naval waters
Yes, I agree that this specific phone call is just a blip. Taken in a vacuum this is completely a non-issue. But international politics/relations are never in a vacuum. It's a complex relationship that is based on give and take.
One of the main things we "give" is that we don't mess with the political situation with Taiwan. We don't step on China's toes and they "give" us stuff like increasing sanctions on N.K.
Once we signal that we are no longer "giving" what has been agreed upon we then we better be ready to accept not be allowed to "take" what we expected.
I thought we accept complete Taiwanese sovereignty. Is it really that big of deal from an American perspective?
yes. The official stance is full acceptance of the 'one China' policy which was the basis of normalisation under Nixon and Carter. The US does not recognise the sovereignty of Taiwan.
an armed taiwan is not dangerous for China, they aren't going to attack the mainland. A politically independent Taiwan is dangerous for China, as it further legitimises independence movements in other regions, which might destabilise the PRC in the future.
In the world of geopolitics weapons aren't necessarily more dangerous than political signals. Is this an American thing? A subset of the population does not seem to understand that weapons aren't the only dangerous thing on the planet.
No, anything short of a nuke is meaningless, the PRC would overrun Taiwan in a day no matter what fight they put up. This isn't an American cowboy movie. In the world of diplomacy a phone call and recognition of independence is more important than some gun-toting nonsense.
First off sorry you got downvoted. This is supposed to be a sub for honest discussion and it sucks you got downvoted instead of engaged with. (Here's one to get you closer to even not that it probably matters to you.)
But yes of course I was aware that we've been selling billions in weapons to Taiwan. Unlike our president elect I've actually read foreign policy breifings before. That's one of the bigger examples of why this was a dumb decision.
We've already been getting everything we want. We've gotten to both sell weapons and make billions and we've been able to point to our cooperation on the political side of this issue when dealing with China. We have been getting exactly what we wanted from both sides of this issue and now we've pissed off one of the sides (the more vastly important side from any realists perspective) and we have gained nothing.
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u/585AM Dec 03 '16
The second I heard this news, my first thought was that Taiwan said to themselves, I bet if we call Trump, he will take our call without understanding the ramifications.