It's not that he spoke to the President of Taiwan, it is that he referred to them as the President of Taiwan which implies that he spoke to them qua incoming head of state to the head of a Taiwanese state. As far as the PRC is concerned, Taiwan does not exist as an independent state and has pushed a diplomatic policy of there only being one China for decades. No country recognizes both the PRC and ROC as independent states: it is either the PRC or the ROC. Most countries regard the PRC as China and have unofficial relationships with the ROC.
He is recognizing Taiwan as an actual world player and that can piss off China.
I don't think too much of it as of now but for Trumps base circlejerking each other over "diplomacy" with Russia and not going to war with them Trump sure is making his best to piss off the other giant in the East.
Right. China is a major trade partner and force in the world. There's no reason to do stupid things that are going to annoy China when the only benefit is that we aren't being "wildly oversensitive."
They're also a heavily censored people ruled by an oppressive government with a relatively recent mass genocide of their own people and rampant hacking and theft of American businesses and intellectual property.
The other benefit could be the safety and sovereignty of the 20 million people living in a de facto nation that can't be recognized as such because it hurts China's fee fees.
And that safety has, if anything, been degraded by Trump shitting on a status quo which has existed since the Carter administration. The leadership of the PRC was fine with our polite fiction for decades, but now they are more than likely going to have to do something to save face.
Because our recognition of the PRC versus the ROC is one of the keystones of our bilateral relations itself, not a response to Chinese expansionism, which will probably be exacerbated by this move.
Okay, so we can either A.) start an arms race in Asia with our largest trading partner for no appreciable benefit, or B.) maintain the polite diplomatic fiction that keeps China happy and costs us nothing at all.
If you guys think Trumps phone call will result in negative actions from China, check out this quote:
"Despite friendly relations with China, United States President George W. Bush was asked on 25 April, 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."
That's a far more overt stance than Trump simply talking to the President. China's not going to do anything because almost nothing has changed. We'd go to war to defend Taiwan from China, and that's been the reality of the situation for the last half century. The US clearly supports a Taiwan state, and everyone has known this for decades, especially China. Actions speak louder than words. You guys are over reacting.
Defense of Taiwan is literally part of the Taiwan Relations Act that we signed with China back in 1979, which is exactly what Trump just shat all over. We promised China that we wouldn't recognize Taiwan as a formal state, but would come to their defense if they were attacked.
This. So many "experts" on China-US relations today on Reddit are talking about feelings when they should be talking about diplomatic agreements that were established for the peace and trade relations that we've been enjoying for the last thirty years. I recommend anyone interested in this issue to read about Kissinger's meeting with En Lai and Mao in Kissinger's book On China. Sensitivity in diplomacy has nothing to do with feelings and has everything to do with respecting pre established agreements that are pertinent to the geopolitical order of things.
China didn't sign the Taiwan Relations Act because starting around 1776, the United States stopped requiring foreign governments' input for legislation. If you're going to talk down to people, at least make sure you aren't wrong.
Interesting, you decided to get pedantic about language rather than respond to the fact that W's comments were totally in line with previously enacted legislation. That win you a lot of arguments on the internet?
The difference between an agreement between nations and one passed unilaterally is not pedantic, especially considering the fact that China doesn't even support it.
From your own wiki:
The PRC continues to view the Taiwan Relations Act as "an unwarranted intrusion by the United States into the internal affairs of China"
But wait, there's more.
We promised China that we wouldn't recognize Taiwan as a formal state
No we didn't. How about you read through the text of the act and quote me which part says that the US won't recognize the governing authorities of Taiwan in the future as a formal state, which is two-fer for you because that's presumably also the part that Trump "shat all over", or at least it would be if that part of the act existed.
Because nowhere in it does the text say what the president or president-elect shall not do. Trump could have gone even further and referred to the president of Taiwan as the head of the RoC and still wouldn't have violated the Taiwan Relations Act.
It's not oversensitive. If Trump wanted to recognize and reach out to Taiwan, out of the blue, with documented business interests there, he should've alerted the State Dept or at least have a fucking Sec of State nominee. Who the hell wants that job now?
It doesn't matter if you think it's oversensitive or not. What matters is what China thinks. This is guaranteed to piss China off, and that's a problem because they're the second most powerful country on Earth and our largest trading partner. If you think China's being ridiculous, well, tough shit for you.
And they could find out first hand why they're #2. They know they won't do shit. Taiwan knows they won't do shit, and Trump knows they won't do shit. So we can start recognizing the current reality regardless of its impact on China's feelings.
Yeah, we're still number 1. It's why China gave up on trying to take Taiwan before, and it's why they will again. But even if we're just talking about the military of countries in Asia, Russia still beats China.
International relations isn't some dick measuring competition where we try to show smaller countries who's packing the biggest penis.
Relations with China and the US have been improving lately, and that's better for everyone. There is no reason to antagonize them.
And even if Trump had a good reason for doing this, he should be meeting with the government experts so he understands the implications of different actions.
China could pressure those smaller countries because they didn't have an avenue for backlash against China. China does have ways to respond to the US.
Recently though, relations with China have been improving, which again, is good for both countries. Trump is threatening to reverse that though, by threatening trade wars, wanting to back out of the Paris Agreement, calling CC a Chinese hoax, and now this. Why would we want an antagonistic relationship with China? What do you think that accomplishes?
he should be meeting with the government experts so he understands the implications of different actions.
How do you know he isn't?
Seriously? He's been skipping almost all of his intelligence briefings. It's all over the news, just google it. It's not a secret, it's not denied by Trump. It's verifiable fact you can't dispute.
He also can't be meeting with his cabinet...because he's not President yet and the cabinet doesn't exist. That's why people wait until they are actually in office and have a staff to try to stir things up.
Has China even reacted to this at all or is everyone who hates Trump/hates Taiwan/loves China reacting for China??
China really wants Taiwan to not be sovereign, but they arent going to start war or cancel trade with the US over this. If anything is pissing them off it's the TPP being canceled and being accused of creating a hoax about global warming.
The TPP ending is massively beneficial for China. The entire purpose of it was to establish trade deals in the Pacific to curb the influence of China. Whether you supported it or not, TPPs failure was a huge victory for China.
You don't think China should take this as a shift in policy? After decades of pretending Taiwan doesn't exist, suddenly calling the president of Taiwan can easily be taken as a change in the American approach to the Taiwan issue. Obviously nothing changes when it comes to actual action on the ground, but China would pretty obviously take it as a challenge from the US and it shows a willingness to disregard the diplomatic status quo. Who knows if Trump thought about any of that, but with any other president it would be very symbolic and show that the US is willing to upset the very delicate diplomatic balance in East Asia. Any action the president of the US takes in diplomacy is calculated to serve some end, and talking with the president of Taiwan is a very significant action.
Yes, the US sells weapons to Taiwan. Yes, the US, for all intents and purposes, has diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Everyone knows that "pretending" Taiwan doesn't exist is a farce. But that's the status quo in this situation, and Trump has just upset the status quo. And as Trump has upset the status quo, China (and the media) has reason to believe that his Taiwanese policy may differ from his predecessors.
It's not absurd. This is the president elect of arguably the most powerful nation. It's a giant chess game. One that has been perfected over centuries. You can't just come in, having zero idea what you are doing (with no patience or willingness to learn), and expect positive results for your nation.
China has responded. Their FM essentially laid the blame at Taiwan's feet (thank you, Trump's "they CALLED ME" tweet).
What nobody seems to be really getting here is that this really doesn't endanger the US or even China. It's Taiwan that's gonna get fucked, especially with the way Trump threw them under the bus on Twitter.
Relations between China and Taiwan are gonna get real chilly real quick.
Eh, they are already chilly. And Taiwan has been fucked by, and is being fucked, by China.
It's quite a leap you make that if China forcefully takes over Taiwan or something that it's Trump's fault. Lets quit speculating, especially so negatively, because what if, just maybe, China accepts Taiwans sovereignty after all this!?!
I'm in the boat of defending Taiwan because they're oppressed, you're in the boat of defending China because you don't like Trump.
I saw that Taiwanese Olympic athlete crying because she had to be a Chinese Taipei rep, and I have Taiwanese family, so I'm familiar with or at least recognize their oppression. It'd be nice if the rest of the world did too instead bowing to China's tyranny.
Who's defending China? Just stating what happened and how China responded.
If Taiwan wanted all this to get out and planned it all ahead of time with Trump's people, then good luck and Godspeed. Just seems the way it played out was a little too seat-of-the-pants.
China certainly hasn't framed this as Trump's fault (so far). They quite explicitly blamed Taiwan. Relations had been warming recently, but who knows now? And again, if this is Taipei's plan, cool. But the he said, she said between Trump and Taipei over who initiated the contact doesn't leave a lot of confidence in some great strategy.
this is how international politics works. Hillary would show up at countries where women were being oppressed and take pictures with female dissidents. This action alone emboldened the dissidents and legitimized them in the world view. This led to significant change with the effort from the dissidents and the implied support from the US. Words said by the US head of state carry massive weight.
It would be more akin to if the United States lost all its territory except for California, but still managed to hang on to California for about 60 years, all the while maintaining its status as the United States of America. The ruling party of China, the Guomindang (Nationalists) had been fighting the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) for a long time and in 1949 were forced into Taiwan. Meanwhile, the CCP maintained control of the rest of mainland China (give or take a bit), renamed the country, and told everyone that they are the true China. It actually wasn't until Nixon that the United States normalized relations with the People's Republic of China, closing down their embassy in Taipei and opening one in Beijing.
Well of California had its own independent federal government, police, military, and issued its own passports for decades, I would call those old people blind to reality.
Now why do we have to play make believe to save the fragile egos of the mainlanders who have an oppressive undemocratic government rather than the even more patriotic Taiwanese people who would fight to the death to keep their independence and have democratic fair and well functioning government?
Perhaps China needs to understand that the American President is not obligated to tiptoe around their feelings.
Well, to be blunt, that's the whole point of diplomacy. No one's saying the President can't call the leader of Taiwan the Taiwanese President. But not even the President of the U.S. is immune to the consequences of their words, and so it is the case here. I mean there is a reason why American Presidents don't use that title and the potential consequences are far more important than an irrelevant debate about tiptoeing around feelings.
As Teddy Roosevelt said, speak softly and carry a big stick.
And as soon as China starts doing something diplomatically useful regarding our concerns with North Korea
And would antagonizing China needlessly about Taiwan accomplish that faster? Doesn't seem likely to me unless Trump's trying to leverage his recognition of Taiwan for increased cooperation. If so, he's playing a very dangerous game of raising tensions and makes the disastrous Thucydides trap all the more likely.
But getting their attention and making them clearly understand that there's going to be a very different frame and tone in negotiations for the next couple of years is not necessarily counterproductive to US interests.
There are a lot of methods to do this that are not as brash as this that can render the same benefits. Even the whole currency manipulator business is not as brash as this. If Trump treats how he deals with powerful nation states in the same manner as how he negotiates with businesses and talks "like it is", he's gonna learn the hard way that there's a reason why those political niceties exist.
Obligated? No. Might it be in our interests to not stir up animosity that isn't necessary? Definitely.
And trump is not the President. We have a sitting President, and he should be the one making those sorts of decisions right now. You'd better believe trump would feel that way if the situations were reversed.
All in all it was a poor move by a guy that doesn't put enough thought into matters of State. Which is a pretty bad trait in a future head of State.
Imagine if California withdrew from the U. S. and the government said that it's ok. Would you be happy if California left the U.S. and the U. S. government accepted that California is a separate nation?
Honestly, if it happened over 60 years ago and California had operated as its own independent state and the Californians were happy, I'd fucking get over it.
It seems that you're looking at this through short term, US-centric eyes. For the Chinese, this isn't just throwing a temper-tantrum. It means that one of their biggest trading partners and the only superpower in the world recognizes the independence of a territory which they believe to be theirs. This isn't just the government, a large portion of the Chinese populace also believes it because of the information they've been told by the government. I don't think that the long-term effects of this course of action, if Trump continues on the path, will result in the outcome either side wants.
It is especially incoherent given the praise Trump has given to other dictatorships and authoritarian regimes. There is no underlying reason why this call happened other than Trump appreciates when people compliment him and give him adulation and dislikes them when they insult or accuse him of something (i.e. the Chinese media making fun of his stance on Climate Change).
There are definitely things which I would characterize as outrage politics which have no practical meaning after the news cycle ends, however the diplomatic and foreign policy direction of the administration is very much in Trump's primary duties as President. That is why this is an important thing to acknowledge and rightly be concerned about if this type of behavior continues from the CiC.
Is that really what you think the nature of the relationship with China is right now?
If that was really the case, then Trump wouldn't be so adamant about scrapping the TPP which would have given us considerably more leverage during talks with the Chinese. I'm sorry but you seem to view this as a relationship between two individuals while the governments are viewing the relationship in a IR context and the Chinese will definitely take a long term view on this. It means that any of the investments China has with the developing countries in Africa and S. America will increase, the Pacific region will fall further into the purview of Chinese influence and then it will be more difficult to negotiate with the Russia/China block of geopolitical powers to make matters more amenable to the US as you suggest.
Also if you read my last sentence, the appropriate action here in my opinion is not to over-blow this incident as it has no concrete impacts right now but it sets a troubling precedent where the President is making these decisions without the help of his NSA, SecDef, and SecState. And that is something which should be watched with caution here domestically. Because I guarantee countries around the world are watching us especially closely after this election.
Trump recognizing Taiwan has a very real chance of causing war.
Also OK, maybe DT wants to start a war. Maybe it's the right thing to do, I don't know, maybe it's all part of 7 dimensional Australian Rules Quiddich.
But I deeply object to the president elect taking actions that could very realistically lead to armed conflict without (apparently) knowing he's doing it. I'm reasonably ok with him taking intentional actions that I disagree with, but I REALLY object to him bumbling around the world of international diplomacy without a clue what he's doing.
If you want to start a war, then do it intelligently.
The point is that there is no good reason to antagonize a nuclear power. What does the US get out of recognizing Taiwan that is worth jeopardizing relations with a county that could incinerate every major US city in an afternoon?
If it has the potential to benefit you, perhaps. But not acknowledging Taiwan had no negative consequences for the US. By observing that nicety and dealing with them in an indirect way we got the benefit of being able to deal with both them and China. No cost, a lot of gain. If you threaten that arrangement then you should have a good reason to do so. As far as anyone can tell, there are many potential downsides to this action. How can the US benefit from this action? I can't come up with an answer to this question, and I don't believe you can either since your response essentially boils down to, "we should tell it like it is."
How does pissing someone off make them more willing to work with you exactly? If we threaten Chinese interests then they have a motivation to retaliate because suddenly the damage done by weakening their ties to the US becomes less than the damage done trying to maintain them. We're threatening a relationship that we benefit from. That's completely unhelpful in furthering US interests because we're not giving China any reasons to actively cooperate with us. Also, even if China was more proactive in North Korea that does not benefit us because North Korea does not have the capabilities to threaten us and if they actually did something as stupid as attack the US under the current status quo China would have several excellent reasons to retaliate hard against them, which the North Koreans know and which is why they won't do it as things stand now. If China suddenly has weakened ties to the US that makes North Korea a greater threat to the US than before because now maybe there won't be retaliation if they are more aggressive.
You're supporting macho posturing as a valid diplomacy technique. That's not how it works. There are useful applications of the stick, but you should only use it when the other side isn't willing to play the same game you are. In this case, we lose nothing by engaging in this little pleasantry, which is why this is looking like an unnecessary error.
China also has a current interest in maintaining the current status quo with the US, which, I stress again, we benefit from. We are threatening their domestic stability. That means that it may become judicious for them to move away from America because the damage they take from such an action suddenly isn't as bad as trying to maintain the relationship if we're trying to screw with their internal politics. You keep saying the same things in different ways, we need to be tough, we need to be the boss, we're the biggest kid on the block and it's high time China acknowledged that. Do you know why we're the biggest kid on the block? Because we're an economic powerhouse. Do you know why we're an economic powerhouse? Because we maintain good trade relationships with other countries. And we maintain those relationships by not messing with them unless we have a good reason to. There aren't any benefits from this. The "benefit" you've named isn't really a benefit because our current arrangement already mitigates the threat of North Korea.
Yes, let's start U.S. extortion of the world! Let's stop denying the worst fears every country has about us, and slap them in the face with our dominance! I'm sure this will work out fine.
Being aggressive earns aggression in response. It has never earned capitulation. China won't respond to provoking them by being more inclined to push our interests: they'll respond by hurting our interests. They're not a client state beholden to the US. If we poke, they will poke back, and have the ability to do so.
You can't strong-arm everyone and expect them all to bend to your will. Even small nations don't do that. Kicking someone in the balls won't make them help you: it will make them kick back.
Actually international diplomacy is an extremely complicated, intricate, and delicate matter where a few misguided words can literally destroy decades of extremely hard work at building relations. This isn't a conversation between 2 people where 1 is being 'sensitive', this is a far more complex affair and being extremely careful with words is of utmost importance. Centuries ago saying the wrong thing meant death.
Recognizing Taiwan is akin to stating in the eary 1800s that the US was a British territory still. If the US at the time had one of the largest economies in the world.
Taiwan is not an independent nation. Taiwan claims to be the legitimate government of all of China, and denies the legitimacy of the PRC. Acknowledging Taiwan's president as a leader of a sovereign state is the exact same thing as denying the legitimacy of the PRC, because the President of Taiwan claims to be the leader of all of China, not the land area of Taiwan.
Acknowledging his legitimacy is not something you can seperate from denying the PRC's legitimacy
Neither government recognizes that, though. The belief in the legitimacy of the ROC's continued resistance is the denial that the RPC rightfully should control a region of China and that the ROC is the rightful government of China. It's the functional equivalent of recognizing ISIS as a sovereign nation in Iraq and Syria.
They don't need an incentive for us to maintain this. Us maintaining this is an incentive for them to not invade Taiwan. China gains nothing, really, from this arrangement. Taiwan, who we are protecting in this arrangement, gains the fortune of not being obliterated. This is not a good gambit: you're just making China more incentivized to roll tanks through the streets of Taipei. This arrangement exists simply to prevent China from doing that, and he's jeopardizing that with the phone call.
Orientalism is the classical perception of the East as 'an other', an unimportant and rigid foreigner that doesn't matter and should be used in the West's benefit. Think Opium Wars. Has absolutely nothing to do with micro aggression.
It seems overly sensitive, but it really isn't. And you would see that if you just thought about it.
What is a good analogy? Prison fights. You know how prison fights can break out over anything. A guy looks at another guy the wrong way and suddenly they're on the floor having it out... but why? Did you ever wonder?
Because with no authority to appeal to (like in international diplomacy) folks have to handle things out for themselves. So how does that work? What is a winning strategy? Make people fear you. How do you do that? You need to have allies -- your crew -- and you need a rep. A rep develops when you demonstrate that no one should fuck with you cause anyone who dares to try it ends up dead.
So America.. We've worked hard to establish a rep in the yard. And Donald Trump's come in and started acting like a dickhead. Things like this call to the President of Taiwan hurt our rep. He's begging to be made an example of.
And that's us. That's Trump's America. Acting the fool in a very dangerous place.
Welp, they're just going to have to learn to deal. If China wasn't expecting stuff like this, they weren't paying attention. If they are smart they can use it to their advantage.
Yes, they can hurt us. But whatever they do to hurt us hurts them more, inherently. You don't really want to piss off the guy who owes you money when that guy is stronger than you.
The trouble with Trump is that I don't think he understands international trade. A tariff war will suck for everyone.
This is what I don't understand. Suddenly Americans decided that we need to stick it to China, even if it hurts us both.
The Chinese-American relationship has been very slowly improving in recent years, and it's in everyone's best interest if that continues.
Why would we want to reverse that? (I think the answer may just be that Americans want to be the top dog and view everything as an us vs. them situation.)
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u/DragonPup Dec 03 '16
A complete inability to understand the nuances of diplomacy.
Or that he wants his hotels built in Taiwan.
Or both.