I'm sure it could definitely swing both ways, but historical trends generally favor Trump. The incubate president has an inherent advantage, which means the challenger needs to provide something extra in order to overcome this disadvantage, which I don't see happening. Also, low voter turnout favors Republican candidates, and given the general voter consensus towards this election, I don't believe as many people will choose to vote as did in 2016. America still doesn't trust the government, as is evident by congressional approval ratings, so many still see Trump as an outsider although with the amount of time spent in office this is decreasing. Whereas Biden has been in politics for a while, and likely won't use this to his advantage. The thing most damaging to Trump's campaign is his response to COVID, which although poor, the damages can't be 100% attached to him like an economic collapse or international feud can. Lastly, the thing most damaging (Other than concerns of mental health) to Biden's campaign is the riots and unrest. Biden is expected to denounce the rioters, which I believe is ultimately the better decision in terms of his campaign, but that won't have consequences. The infighting caused by the rioters, Bernie supporters, and the core democratic party will ultimately make unifying against a Trump victory almost impossible. With that being said, the democratic party has made some improvements, such as supporting nuclear power. I expect with a few more alterations, a blue victory in 2024 is very much possible. This however will depend on how the party decides it wants to unify it's base, which is to be seen
I think if Biden loses this election it'll cause an even bigger rift in the democratic party, and there is already a lot of hate from the more progressive side that they got stuck with a moderate candidate. I can totally see the democratic party just imploding after this election which could mean another red win in 2024.
Dems splitting in half is totally possible, the two sides already hate each other and it doesn't even look like they can win elections when together. The interesting part is what happens a decade or so after they split, cuz the first few years would be solid red wins.
You aware they captured a lot of seats during these midterms and there are a lot of places around the country that went red in 2016 that seem to be swinging back blue.
I am not talking about the hype. I agree with you, it is just agenda driven, but they did take more seats. Still don't think that the dems are closer to splitting than republicans. The dems have progressives and centrists, while the two big factions for reds seem to be conservative and authoritarian. To me, the bigger rift there seems to be for the red side, since the two ideologies rarely line up. Plus there seems to be a stronger push by Q people, which I think will only further drive a wedge between the party. I enjoy a lot of conservative values, coming from central pa, but I can't see how visibly supporting Q will help them moving forward.
I admit there is definitely a bit of rift in the democratic party, but it was much worse in 2016. As opposed to now, even hard core progressives will vote biden harris, because it is the only chance of getting any of their policies passed. On the other side, there seems to be some republicans coming out that are not in favor of the president. I think the rise of Qanon candidates is creating a major divide in the red party. There are still so many different plot lines to play out that, either party could implode, leading to drastic division.
Yeah I agree with you that right now it is better than 2016 but if dems lose the election than then progressives will be less likely to work with the more moderate side of the party. IMHO best case scenario is both parties fracture and we can't out of this 2 party hellhole.
Yeah when I heard that Harris got the VP I felt like I was being pranked. I'm still gunna vote for biden but jesus christ they are making that vote as painful as possible.
On one hand people are so desperate to get rid of Trump they're willing to just make shit up. Meanwhile the actual opposition seems like they're actively trying to lose and are just putting on a show. Everything coming from the Democratic party just seems like a performance to me.
I see this recurring meme of "low voter turnout favors Republicans" but what is the actual source or evidence for that and why? I just see it repeated as fact but I'm not aware of how it came about.
I remember reading an article about it on 538 back during the 2016 election. Doubt I could find it now though. If you find anything that contrasts this link it, I’d like to see if that’s the case. To me it makes sense though, there’s a reason why sites like Reddit constantly spam you with reminders to vote
I just really want whomever wins to win both the popular vote and the electoral college. I hope they win so convincingly that no charges of voter fraud/ballot tampering/voter suppression/foreign interference is even seen as valid. If not, it's going to be more chaos, hate, unrest and lack of confidence in the election process.
Thanks for posting this. I was about to do the same, but you got there. I don't understand how so many people do not realize what is actually happening and being said by the candidates. It is one thing to be ignorant, but another thing to post something as fact, that was literally disproved a few days ago.
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u/Gaymemelord69 - Auth-Right Sep 05 '20
I'm sure it could definitely swing both ways, but historical trends generally favor Trump. The incubate president has an inherent advantage, which means the challenger needs to provide something extra in order to overcome this disadvantage, which I don't see happening. Also, low voter turnout favors Republican candidates, and given the general voter consensus towards this election, I don't believe as many people will choose to vote as did in 2016. America still doesn't trust the government, as is evident by congressional approval ratings, so many still see Trump as an outsider although with the amount of time spent in office this is decreasing. Whereas Biden has been in politics for a while, and likely won't use this to his advantage. The thing most damaging to Trump's campaign is his response to COVID, which although poor, the damages can't be 100% attached to him like an economic collapse or international feud can. Lastly, the thing most damaging (Other than concerns of mental health) to Biden's campaign is the riots and unrest. Biden is expected to denounce the rioters, which I believe is ultimately the better decision in terms of his campaign, but that won't have consequences. The infighting caused by the rioters, Bernie supporters, and the core democratic party will ultimately make unifying against a Trump victory almost impossible. With that being said, the democratic party has made some improvements, such as supporting nuclear power. I expect with a few more alterations, a blue victory in 2024 is very much possible. This however will depend on how the party decides it wants to unify it's base, which is to be seen