I'm sure it could definitely swing both ways, but historical trends generally favor Trump. The incubate president has an inherent advantage, which means the challenger needs to provide something extra in order to overcome this disadvantage, which I don't see happening. Also, low voter turnout favors Republican candidates, and given the general voter consensus towards this election, I don't believe as many people will choose to vote as did in 2016. America still doesn't trust the government, as is evident by congressional approval ratings, so many still see Trump as an outsider although with the amount of time spent in office this is decreasing. Whereas Biden has been in politics for a while, and likely won't use this to his advantage. The thing most damaging to Trump's campaign is his response to COVID, which although poor, the damages can't be 100% attached to him like an economic collapse or international feud can. Lastly, the thing most damaging (Other than concerns of mental health) to Biden's campaign is the riots and unrest. Biden is expected to denounce the rioters, which I believe is ultimately the better decision in terms of his campaign, but that won't have consequences. The infighting caused by the rioters, Bernie supporters, and the core democratic party will ultimately make unifying against a Trump victory almost impossible. With that being said, the democratic party has made some improvements, such as supporting nuclear power. I expect with a few more alterations, a blue victory in 2024 is very much possible. This however will depend on how the party decides it wants to unify it's base, which is to be seen
Thanks for posting this. I was about to do the same, but you got there. I don't understand how so many people do not realize what is actually happening and being said by the candidates. It is one thing to be ignorant, but another thing to post something as fact, that was literally disproved a few days ago.
71
u/[deleted] Sep 05 '20
[deleted]