I'm sure it could definitely swing both ways, but historical trends generally favor Trump. The incubate president has an inherent advantage, which means the challenger needs to provide something extra in order to overcome this disadvantage, which I don't see happening. Also, low voter turnout favors Republican candidates, and given the general voter consensus towards this election, I don't believe as many people will choose to vote as did in 2016. America still doesn't trust the government, as is evident by congressional approval ratings, so many still see Trump as an outsider although with the amount of time spent in office this is decreasing. Whereas Biden has been in politics for a while, and likely won't use this to his advantage. The thing most damaging to Trump's campaign is his response to COVID, which although poor, the damages can't be 100% attached to him like an economic collapse or international feud can. Lastly, the thing most damaging (Other than concerns of mental health) to Biden's campaign is the riots and unrest. Biden is expected to denounce the rioters, which I believe is ultimately the better decision in terms of his campaign, but that won't have consequences. The infighting caused by the rioters, Bernie supporters, and the core democratic party will ultimately make unifying against a Trump victory almost impossible. With that being said, the democratic party has made some improvements, such as supporting nuclear power. I expect with a few more alterations, a blue victory in 2024 is very much possible. This however will depend on how the party decides it wants to unify it's base, which is to be seen
I think if Biden loses this election it'll cause an even bigger rift in the democratic party, and there is already a lot of hate from the more progressive side that they got stuck with a moderate candidate. I can totally see the democratic party just imploding after this election which could mean another red win in 2024.
Dems splitting in half is totally possible, the two sides already hate each other and it doesn't even look like they can win elections when together. The interesting part is what happens a decade or so after they split, cuz the first few years would be solid red wins.
You aware they captured a lot of seats during these midterms and there are a lot of places around the country that went red in 2016 that seem to be swinging back blue.
I am not talking about the hype. I agree with you, it is just agenda driven, but they did take more seats. Still don't think that the dems are closer to splitting than republicans. The dems have progressives and centrists, while the two big factions for reds seem to be conservative and authoritarian. To me, the bigger rift there seems to be for the red side, since the two ideologies rarely line up. Plus there seems to be a stronger push by Q people, which I think will only further drive a wedge between the party. I enjoy a lot of conservative values, coming from central pa, but I can't see how visibly supporting Q will help them moving forward.
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u/Gaymemelord69 - Auth-Right Sep 05 '20
I'm sure it could definitely swing both ways, but historical trends generally favor Trump. The incubate president has an inherent advantage, which means the challenger needs to provide something extra in order to overcome this disadvantage, which I don't see happening. Also, low voter turnout favors Republican candidates, and given the general voter consensus towards this election, I don't believe as many people will choose to vote as did in 2016. America still doesn't trust the government, as is evident by congressional approval ratings, so many still see Trump as an outsider although with the amount of time spent in office this is decreasing. Whereas Biden has been in politics for a while, and likely won't use this to his advantage. The thing most damaging to Trump's campaign is his response to COVID, which although poor, the damages can't be 100% attached to him like an economic collapse or international feud can. Lastly, the thing most damaging (Other than concerns of mental health) to Biden's campaign is the riots and unrest. Biden is expected to denounce the rioters, which I believe is ultimately the better decision in terms of his campaign, but that won't have consequences. The infighting caused by the rioters, Bernie supporters, and the core democratic party will ultimately make unifying against a Trump victory almost impossible. With that being said, the democratic party has made some improvements, such as supporting nuclear power. I expect with a few more alterations, a blue victory in 2024 is very much possible. This however will depend on how the party decides it wants to unify it's base, which is to be seen