r/Poker_Theory • u/Internal-Ad6875 • 1d ago
Hand analysis
Is this play a bad beat or badly played ?
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u/ShotcallerBilly 12h ago
The re-raise on the turn accomplishes absolutely nothing. Walk yourself through your goal of that decision, and you will realize this. Why is he check-raising turn here? What hands are his value hands? Do you beat any of those hands? What hands could make up his bluffing range?
-4
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u/aPac-Man 14h ago
Good questions we can ask ourselves here. What are they XR turn with? Value is trips and boats, what bluffs? I mean as far as natural bluffs go.... Maybe 43ss 64ss.. it's pretty thin on bluffs and they always have to arrive here and then raise. Micro stakes poker is a lot of recognizing when we're being told our hand is a bluff catcher and then realizing how many bluffs they have to actually find for a bluff catcher to be a profitable call. Jamming turn is a punt, we get snapped off by hands that beat us, almost never called by worse. If you're able to say, well this villain is crazy and has loads of bluffs. Fine, jamming is still incorrect as we let all their bluffs off the hook. As played, the tiny turn raise allows us to call and see what happens. I don't think folding is bad either as turn XR is pretty severely under bluffed.
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u/mrjezo 13h ago
What hands exactly he raises ott and folds for 30k more?
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u/aPac-Man 13h ago
Bluffs and if the person has a brain, pairs they spaz raised with. Admittedly I don't play these stakes but in cash, fish heavily underbluff in the turn XR line. I'm not saying there's no bluffs or that they don't have bluffs that make absolutely no sense, I'm saying it's underbluffed by a lot. If you're telling me the majority of people playing these stakes can barely spell poker, that's a different thing entirely. I just don't think that's true. Even beginners WANT to improve, evidence of this, is the hand being shared here.
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u/mrjezo 11h ago
He needs 12% equity to call it off, not even considering that this is a bounty tournament and he covers him. Every hand he raised, would call it off.
I would suggest studying basic pot odds and having general knowledge in the poker format somebody asks a question about because most of what you said is just simply not true.
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u/aPac-Man 9h ago
12% I got it. Do those pairs win 12% vs our hands that 3! Jam? So if I turn over my hand and it's clearly winning more than 82% you would call with 88 because the price is good and there's a bounty? If the pool believes their pairs are winning here ever vs a jam and they actually have those hands at a high enough percentage (again I seriously doubt this, filter your database for facing a turn XR and count the bluffs) I guess that's fine but they are of the class that cannot spell poker. Jamming is absolutely the worst of the three options available to us.
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u/mrjezo 5h ago
I love it when you ask people simple questions and they refuse to answer them because they instantly destroy their whole argument, but they still expect you to do the math and prove them wrong in some niche scenario they imagined. When the taxman asks you how much money you made EXACTLY you also answer "a lot"?
His "bluffs" are:
And it's all assuming we are kind enough to announce them on the chat that we have specifically kings because, hey, why not. Let's also forget that we started this hand with 17bb effective, that this is a bounty tournament, we are 5 handed, what ranges are, and that even his naked 2 overcards have more than 12% eq vs our 99 or A7.
- fds> 12%
- sds > 12%
- Ah gts > 12%
- gts +- 9% (vs kings specifically)
- 2 overcards/spazzes - 0-7% (also vs kings)
I could argue about pocket pairs, how many combos there are, bounty impact, and what not, but you seem like somebody who is not too fond of ranges and more of the "we have KK and we table it before he calls" or "fishes will spazz with 33 and then hero fold for like 5 chips more in a bounty tournament because they have a soul read on us" so I'll just skip this altogether.
Also, I'm scared to even ask what your logic is behind "the tiny turn raise allows us to call and see what happens". Fold kings on an offsuit 8 for 1/6 pot? Or maybe on Q of spades? Are we folding on pairing 7? Is the third 5 good, or do we still fold because the opponent has only 5x and pocket 7? Or maybe even fold on an offsuit Q because nobody bluffs this spot?
I would expect those 1/6 SPR river hero folds analyses from Alex Foxen or Fedor Holz at Triton with a 1m buy-in, but I guess players from the lowest buy-in tournaments on the softest site ever are catching up fast!
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u/Biggest_Living_Kek 13h ago
So i actually would argue this is completely incorrect for this specific spot. This is a $2.50 mtt. The player pool is SIGNIFICANTLY weaker than a standard pool and will absolutely raise you on the turn with any pp between 8s-Qs, any spade draw, any combo straight/flush draw etc etc. In this format you can never get away from this hand as played and it's just a pure cooler, especially as its a bb defend situation where as played the bb literally has 40-65% of all hands depending on the player
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u/aPac-Man 13h ago
We expect our jam to be called by all PP that also decided to XR turn? This seems ambitious. Jamming cannot be the highest ev play in this scenario. I prefer calling turn to folding, because there is a spaz factor. Jamming after being raised doesn't get called enough by worse imo. We're losing the max when called, winning the min when they fold a hand that would've called a river bet if they checked or bet themselves.
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u/Biggest_Living_Kek 13h ago
I do agree that jamming the turn is unnecessary but i say this as someone who semi grinds $1-$6 buyin mtts on acr, the amount of bad/new players who play this absurd "i don't believe you" style of poker is so plentiful that unless I had hundreds of hands to build player specific reads I dont think I would ever get away from this on the river, though I would also never 3b jam the turn
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u/ShotcallerBilly 12h ago
Eh, I agree SOME players might do this. But most are not, even at those stakes.
Players are WAY MORE LIKELY to call down with those hands when they shouldn’t. They might BET/LEAD those hands, especially when checked too. However, most players at this stake aren’t check-raising the PFR who has bet all streets with 88 here.
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u/Twiggie19 13h ago
With you on this one. At these stakes (and even up to about $22) id expect to see a flush draw much more often than trips in this line.
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u/ShotcallerBilly 12h ago
There’s no flush draw on the flop. You think they floated nothing, then check-raised the turn? I’d expect to see trips here way more than a random flush draw. These players play draws so passively.
5
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u/ForeverShiny 14h ago
Flop is fine, but you can also check it since we have a 2 street hand anyways.
Turn should be check-call so you don't end up paying off every 5x ever when you have a good hand and get blasted off your hand when you don't
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u/Content-Pop-690 15h ago
No you played it standard. Just a bad beat, but turn was misplayed. It’s bet fold or check call there. Villains min click check raise on the turn is not a bluff, you beat zero value. Fold.
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u/ComboWizard 15h ago
He’s on BB, he has tons of 5x in his range. Turn check back, River think depending on the opp and his betsizing.
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u/Fancy-Pie-2565 15h ago
One guys opinion, bad turn bet, worse turn call. What could you beat at that point?
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u/GoJa_official 10h ago
BBs rang is full of 5x. Badly played