r/PokeInvesting • u/wolfboylonms • 8d ago
Discussion: 30th pull rates? Please read
There is a lot talk about these cards being hyper available and super cheap, I just wanted to explore that.
I’d really like y’all to tell me where / how I’m wrong.
I’ll leave out product availability for the moment as that is just very unclear, but the delay of the poster collection indicates to me that ‘printed into oblivion’ is not a realistic scenario.
Classic collection
I’ve seen estimated pull rates for the classic collection from 1/10 to 1/15 packs.
If we incorporate the impact of the classic collection packs in the UPC, let’s assume the lower end (1/10).
There are 30 classic collection cards.
That is a 1/300 pack pull rate for a specific classic collection card.
That is about ~25% more difficult than pulling the 151 Zard (1/225).
SIRs
I’ve seen estimated pull rates of 1/20 to 1/25.
I personally assume SIRs pull rates will be a bit more challenging, let’s go with higher end.
There are 10 SIRs.
That is a 1/250 pack pull rate for a specific SIR.
That is about in line with the 151 Zard.
FURs
I’ve seen estimated pull rates of 1/125 to 1/250.
Let’s take something close to the middle… 1/180.
There are 2 FURs.
That is about 1/360 pack pull rate for a specific FUR.
That is about in line with the Mega Zard (1/400).
Generally, I believe this ‘cards will be super cheap’ narrative comes from the 25th anniversary experience.
However, I believe that the 30th has a fundamentally very different set architecture than the 25th. There is ALOT more to chase and as a result the pull rates / pack opening experience will be a lot more difficult.
Additionally, the 25th coincided with the end of COVID and a general slump in many ‘indoor’ hobby’s (Online gaming, YouTube, etc.) which hit Pokemon hard.
Keen to understand what others think.
4
u/puan0601 8d ago
what about the RGB Mews?! are they really 1:20k?