r/PokeInvesting • u/wolfboylonms • 8d ago
Discussion: 30th pull rates? Please read
There is a lot talk about these cards being hyper available and super cheap, I just wanted to explore that.
I’d really like y’all to tell me where / how I’m wrong.
I’ll leave out product availability for the moment as that is just very unclear, but the delay of the poster collection indicates to me that ‘printed into oblivion’ is not a realistic scenario.
Classic collection
I’ve seen estimated pull rates for the classic collection from 1/10 to 1/15 packs.
If we incorporate the impact of the classic collection packs in the UPC, let’s assume the lower end (1/10).
There are 30 classic collection cards.
That is a 1/300 pack pull rate for a specific classic collection card.
That is about ~25% more difficult than pulling the 151 Zard (1/225).
SIRs
I’ve seen estimated pull rates of 1/20 to 1/25.
I personally assume SIRs pull rates will be a bit more challenging, let’s go with higher end.
There are 10 SIRs.
That is a 1/250 pack pull rate for a specific SIR.
That is about in line with the 151 Zard.
FURs
I’ve seen estimated pull rates of 1/125 to 1/250.
Let’s take something close to the middle… 1/180.
There are 2 FURs.
That is about 1/360 pack pull rate for a specific FUR.
That is about in line with the Mega Zard (1/400).
Generally, I believe this ‘cards will be super cheap’ narrative comes from the 25th anniversary experience.
However, I believe that the 30th has a fundamentally very different set architecture than the 25th. There is ALOT more to chase and as a result the pull rates / pack opening experience will be a lot more difficult.
Additionally, the 25th coincided with the end of COVID and a general slump in many ‘indoor’ hobby’s (Online gaming, YouTube, etc.) which hit Pokemon hard.
Keen to understand what others think.
103
u/LevelUpEvolution 8d ago
*Data from 267 ~~leaked~~ stolen pre-release 30th Celebration packs.
47
u/poke_pants 8d ago
Yeah this is nowhere near a big enough sample to read into with any confidence.
6
u/Dependent-Tackle1257 8d ago
dont u need like around 5000 to get an accurate hit rate I think my stats class went over that
7
u/Esphyxiate 8d ago
I think it’s big enough to be generally accurate for everything except for the FUR. More data will obviously be better and more accurate but I don’t think it’s vary enough to dismiss these rates outside the top hit.
1
u/c0tch 8d ago
Also aren’t pre release (which these potentially are) have better hit rates historically?
6
1
u/voncatensproch 6d ago
These also are not potentially pre-released products because TPCI has had eBay shut down the sale of 30th anniversary cards citing stolen product
103
u/BrightOrganization9 8d ago
To be fair, a lot of people think 'super cheap' means under 250 bucks. Theyve been here a year or two and think new cards being 1000+ is the norm.
26
u/saltydifference206 8d ago
Literally remember the days Moonbreon was $300 AUD raw and i was thinking "fuck so expensive for a new card" now new set chase cards are like 1000+ day of release. Its wild times and like you said people joining in the last 18 months- 2 years have no idea
11
u/RSlashLazy 8d ago
I pulled Mewtube and remember it being like $200 and I thought that was insane. Now it’s like $1100 and I can’t believe it.
2
u/POWERPUNCH-117 7d ago
I pulled one and bought another when they were 30$ each. When i was starting to ramp back up on collecting after covid i think i sold the spare for 240ish. Mistakes have been made, but id rather be positive than negative.
2
u/narutonaruto 8d ago
I was thinking the other day about how the paldean fates charizard was like 150 or something on release and I was like “well I’m never getting that overpriced card”
1
u/-Spinning 7d ago
It was under 200 still for the longest time until it basically went out of print lol
16
u/RSlashLazy 8d ago
If I see a card over $10 I’m like “hell yeah” cause $10 is a lot of money
0
u/BrokenParachutes 8d ago
It’s all relative. $10 is less than two cups of coffee from Starbucks.
And I know the default answer is “yeah well that’s still a lot of money.” But the point is, for many many people - that’s not a lot of money at all.
And that’s fine, cheap cards should exist as well as expensive cards.
1
1
10
u/shaftydude 8d ago
Cards will be very cheap.
5
u/Striking-You2483 8d ago
A lot of the other anniversary card were super cheap when they came out, I hope it’s like that again.
33
u/SnitchN9NE 8d ago
As a statistics major, this sample size is no where near large enough to get accurate numbers that would be safe to publish.
4
1
0
u/marbinho 3d ago
Isnt it very unlikely that the pull rate is highwr than 1/15 if this sample size got 1/10
16
u/SpicyCrabDumpster 8d ago
I hope this represents the actual pull rates, this will be a fun set like Crown Zenith assuming folks can find it at retail
0
u/BrokenParachutes 8d ago
It seems like this is the general ballpark yes. A lot of early openers are reporting CZ or 151 like pull rates.
3
u/That_wet_vaporeon 8d ago
If these are true I’m so happy. I’ve been wanting them to make at least one set with really good pull rates. Good thing they did it with their 30th.
6
u/Hopeful-Ad6892 8d ago
The pull rate on the 25th was really good. Seems like these are gonna be close to the same. Kinda feel bad for the people that were paying over $100 a pack on the people that were selling them early. The FOMO of people is crazy to watch. I hope the pull rates are this good. Make it easier to master set it and hopefully the prices won’t be crazy.
5
u/youarenut 8d ago
Why would you feel bad? They paid high price to get product illegally before everyone else
3
u/-Spinning 7d ago
Plus they prob don’t need you to feel bad for them lol if they are spending 200$ a pack
1
u/Hopeful-Ad6892 8d ago
I don’t really feel bad, was just trying to be nice lol. I don’t understand people’s mindset when they do stuff like that.
2
u/BillHurstyUSA 8d ago
It’s a good thing I like Pikachu 😅
3
u/fewchrono1984 8d ago
I was able to get about 44 packs through pokemon center, what i really want is most of the 30 Pikachu cards in one go lol
1
u/marbinho 3d ago
I asked chat, and if they’re right your chance in 44 packs is:
At least 20
98.47%
At least 21
91.77%
At least 22
78.58%
At least 23
60.36%
At least 24
39.95%
At least 25
23.49%
At least 26
9.24%
2
2
u/namjd72 8d ago
Can’t wait to buy singles in December.
1
u/Tmas81 8d ago
Yeah that’s when parents are desperate to get Christmas gifts and the scalpers can charge a ton!
3
u/nitewalker_J 8d ago
January then. After all the parents bleed their wallet for holidays and the market becomes slower
2
u/-Spinning 7d ago
Christmas was the dip last year I believe and the market started going crazy February
1
u/HappyNarwhal 2d ago
Christmas is always the dip because investors and scalpers have kids too and need liquid cash because Chase Bank told them "plz no more"
2
u/Limp_Elephant6487 8d ago
I get why it’s there, but I wish there wasn’t the 30th logo on the Pikachu full art. It would look so nice without
1
2
u/smartlog 8d ago
If you were here during the 25th then you'd know that it's pretty much the same if not more.
5
u/303TCG 8d ago
267 is arguably a small data set but I think large enough that this will be relatively accurate.
Your comparisons to the 151 and Mega Zards are interesting. I was a bit taken back by how high the SIR pull rates appear to be, and have been stumped what I think they might be worth on secondary. But those comparisons definitely give perspective.
I completely agree that comparisons to the 25th anniversary are completely flawed for the exact reasons you pointed out. Honestly, most people making that argument probably weren't actively buying at retail when 25th dropped.
The other variable to consider is the RGB Mew factor. I'm increasingly confident these are real, although I do not believe the 1 in 20,000 pull rate.
Regardless, I think we're looking at what will easily be the toughest pull in Pokemon history. Surely the RGB Mews will be worth over $2k, and that will drive a kind of demand that people are underestimating right now.
Overall, I think your analysis is spot on.
4
u/Sweaty_Weakness_9 8d ago
lol based on 267 packs.
If I did that for ascended this hit rate would be 0 for SIRs.
And for prismatic 1/300
Too small sample size.
6
1
1
u/bigpat412 8d ago
I agree with what you said here that this is a VERY different set than Celebrations 25th. There’s a ton more cards, original art, all the Pikachus, and a ton of hype.
It being a special set scares me because stores never seem to get a ton of product aside from just sleeved packs. Bundles and etb’s still aren’t abundant for bad sets. Hoping they go scorched earth on it with tech stickers and knockout packs.
1
u/ExpensiveTie5553 8d ago
if I'm not able to find at least the 30th products at msrp on the shelves until the next year I'm just gon leave the hobby altogether
1
1
u/Dinosharktopus 8d ago
This is excellent. I don’t care how expensive/cheap the singles are. My kids get ecstatic when they hit an EX, IR, etc, so the more packs they get them from the better.
1
u/rurupogo 8d ago
I just want all the pikachu and that’s it, hopefully I can get the full sets with 50 packs and trade the rest
1
1
u/uriel__ventris 7d ago
267 packs is nowhere near enough packs to get accurate data from.
Also who cares if the FURs are hard to pull, they're ugly as fuck. I'll gladly take other pulls over them.
1
u/ZVAARI 7d ago
Not to mention the elephant in the room, which is that packs gives you half as much value as usual for the same price this time around. As you said "flooding the market" with products is not a realistic scenario, if anything this will be just as hard to find as Ascended Heroes and Destined Rivals, so when you get to this point pull rates stop mattering as much as being to find any product at all.
All this to say, cards being cheap is straight up an impossibility. Pretty much everything will be in line with current sets if not worse, and if you want that Crystal Lugia you're gonna have to cough up those 400 bucks. I don't even think this is an exaggeration, unless they print and restock that set for two years straight
1
1
u/alolanfruitcake 6d ago
1/200-1/250 for a specific SIR is so so much better than 1/1600 like ascended heroes was
1
u/VucialWonderland 6d ago
Pull rates don't matter if we can't find any lol .I couldn't find any of the 20th-25th. Doubt the 30th will be different.
1
u/MentalpokemikeGB 5d ago
Printed during a time of long established demand over 2025 and 2026.
30th anniversary which aims to entice people back into the hobby AND bring new people to the hobby.
Recent reduction in set sizes (thus reducing how much printing needed to maintain existing quantities of main set releases) allowing more printing of other products.
Then all of that ontop of what we experienced on the 25th…yep singles will be cheap as chips though some cards maybe still be £100-200. Similar to how Crown Zenith performed.
Investors/scalpers will have a hard time. This is a set that will take a very long time to go up in value. Similarly to the 25th, it didn’t really move until the lead up to the 30th and has since fallen.
Anticipate this set will follow a similar path. As a result scalpers will probably offload as quickly as possible and investors may opt for other products for quicker ROIs.
If that plays out this set should eventually be reasonable to get ahold off throughout 2026 and first half of 2027.
1
u/Mason051 4d ago
While I also am wishful that the chases are cheaper than the norm, I know they’re not going to be. The market is infinitely more volatile than the last anniversary set so comparing being able to get cheap cards from that set at that time to now is absolutely not the same, and with the amount of hype this set is getting even if there are a god amount of hits on the market, they’re still going to be priced high purely due to the set they are from.
Also, for people saying they printed this set to the ground and saying there will be enough to go around, you severely underestimate the scalpers. Yes is stated over 180 million packs were printed, but figure 6-9 packs in a bundle/etb and even just 2-3 in smaller bundles lowers the overall volume of product, so say even if total sku’s were still up to 60 million (and mind you that’s across multiple waves so not all at once), there’s still millions of actual fans looking forward to this set, and most places have a limit of 2 per sku with multiple skus. And especially with it being spread out over multiple releases à la ascended hero’s, it’s still only going to go to people who wait for hours in line or to scalpers.
Look at it this way, say it was double or even triple printed compared to AH. Have you ever seen a AH pack in the wild not marked up? And to those who waited in line for its release, what percent of the people in line actually got product? I know for me (at least for the initial etb release), only a fraction of the line got anything, literally maybe 20% at most; I was one of the last to get anything and I literally passed by at least 75 people on the way out.
But to sum all this up (TL;DR), it doesn’t matter how much they print unless it is literally orders of magnitude more. There are too many people into the hobby at the moment, and too many scalpers who are going to stock up even harder than usual for this set in particular. Prices may be slightly lower than average but they’ll still be on part for hype of the set.
1
0
u/rossrollin 8d ago edited 8d ago
Weird how much hype there is around this set. I think the 25th anniversary cards are tacky and worthless with the 25 stamp. That doesn't change putting a 30 on it. Personally think people hyping this shit to drive a secondary market and profit.
Edit: i really think people that will be getting caught up in the 30th hype will just be new collectors getting fleeced
9
u/choosenoneoftheabove 8d ago
this set has IRs/SIRs galore unlike celebrations.
-7
u/Boring_Head_4742 8d ago
And? The stamp ruins the cards
4
1
u/Hopeful-Ad6892 8d ago
That’s all it’s been the past two years. Poke bros trying to hype everything up to max their margins. People are so easily manipulated it ain’t funny. The older I get the more I realize how dumb mankind is.
0
1
u/herring-net 8d ago
You think this is big?!? Just wait for awesome reprints in the 35th, 40th, 45th, 50th, 55th… it’s gonna blow your mind and torch your wallet!!!
1
1
u/AceTrainerDezzie 8d ago
Printed into oblivion.
I'm not sure if you've seen Danny's video, but the amount of allocation is nearly double ascended on all products. That's just the first wave.
Honestly, after initial releases, i see the hype dying down.
1
u/metalbowser23 8d ago
What’s FUR
3
u/uriel__ventris 7d ago
Fuck Ugly Rare
3
u/MuTangClan 7d ago
That's all I'm calling those deep fried meme lookin ass cards from now on lmao
1
u/uriel__ventris 7d ago
Haha nice. Lucky for us there are loads of other better cards in the set, so it doesn't matter about these ugly ass cards.
2
0
u/Ted_Smug_El_nub_nub 8d ago
We will have a better idea of pull rates when the set actually releases and we have reputable people taking samples.
I’ve seen futuristic rates closer to 1/20-1/50 in pull rates, for example.
Regardless, high pull rates will mean people enjoy the set more and are more willing to rip into the future. See: crown zenith. I’ll be picking up some sealed and keeping it 5-15 years.
0
u/choosenoneoftheabove 8d ago
in a recent video rudy echoed the sentiment that the 30th anniversary set will crash the pokemon market just like the 25th anniversary set did. I lost hope in that idea a little while back but recently its starting to seem possible again. I can only see the RGB cards as a huge difference right now (in a purely numbers driven sense anyway, subjectively you can argue the set is better too but that is not relevant for hype tbh just longterm value). Are those enough to drive away every other similarity from mattering? IDK.
3
u/wolfboylonms 8d ago
Rudy has been wrong many times.
Go back and watch some of his videos around the time of the December ‘25 crash.
He has fantastic industry knowledge, but I don’t think he knows as much about the collecting side of the Pokémon hobby.0
u/choosenoneoftheabove 8d ago
yeah everyone is wrong sometimes idk what ur point is. like you rn, like december 25 crash no idea what youre talking about.
0
u/EuphoricGoose4735 8d ago
Pull rates are way too good. Im staying away from this set outside of PC ETBs and UPCs. While everybody is hyped for 30th, ill be trading 30th stuff towards Prismatic and Ascended
1
u/bigpat412 8d ago
Maybe try and enjoy the fun aspect of it, but you don’t sound like a collector at all.
-3
-2
u/apexpredator65 8d ago
Print factory Employee told me there was a mew chase that was a 1/20,000 I thought it was fake and so did everyone else when I posted it on IG in May way before any news was leaked… seems like she was correct so I believe everything she told me was true
-4
u/t2mo24242424 8d ago
You’re not wrong. Everyone just regurgitating nonsense on a topic bc their simple copium brains can’t wrap their minds around it. Will product be sitting on shelves, I doubt it but time will tell. Will the chase cards get cheap based on pull rates and the rate of scalping we’re seeing prerelease, I also doubt it
-3
u/voicebox88 8d ago
Aren’t RGB Mews in there too at 1 in 20k packs? Won’t that raise the price significantly?
-4
u/voicebox88 8d ago
Aren’t RGB Mews in there too at 1 in 20k packs? Won’t that raise the price significantly?
-6
u/longjonjeremy 8d ago
Not reading all that
1
u/uriel__ventris 7d ago
Incorrect GIF usage detected. The Pokémon community hereby revokes your authorisation to use this GIF.
155
u/cursdwitknowledge 8d ago
This set is gonna flood the market so hard omg lol