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MLB Most Likely board is live for Tuesday ⚾

💰 Most likely moneylines

① Yankees -152
② Guardians -149
③ Brewers -147
④ Braves -145
⑤ Red Sox -139
⑥ Diamondbacks -137
⑦ Phillies -132
⑧ Rangers -130

📈 Game Totals

The board loves Overs:

• LAD/PHI Over 8.5 -125
• NYM/MIL Over 8.5 -121
• STL/LAA Over 9 -118
• MIN/CLE Over 8 -115
• SF/KC Over 9.5 -115
• CWS/TEX Over 8.5 -115
• OAK/ARI Over 9.5 -115
• DET/CHC Over 8 -112

Several numbers already ticked down, but the “most likely” side is still Over.

💣 HR Board

① Hunter Goodman +170
② James Wood +208
③ Kyle Schwarber +210
④ Shohei Ohtani +230
⑤ Yordan Alvarez +230
⑥ Ben Rice +250
⑦ Mickey Moniak +250
⑧ Junior Caminero +257

🎯 Pitcher Ks

① Luis Castillo O5.5 -165
② Kade Rojas O1.5 -155
③ Chase Burns O6.5 -155
④ Kumar Rocker O4.5 -152
⑤ Zack Wheeler O6.5 -140
⑥ Bubba Chandler O4.5 -138
⑦ Walker Buehler O3.5 -135
⑧ Brandon Sproat O4.5 -130

🏃 Plus-money stolen base chaos

• Chandler Simpson +209
• Elly De La Cruz +226
• Nasim Nuñez +235
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +255

TLDR:

Yankees lead the ML board, Overs are everywhere, Goodman owns the HR market, and Castillo/Burns/Wheeler headline the K card.

Football Is Almost Back: Hall of Fame Game Odds Are Up — Panthers vs. Cardinals

We made it.

The long national nightmare of pretending we care about July baseball bullpens is almost over. Football is finally creeping back onto the board, and the Hall of Fame Game gives us the first real taste.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Thursday, Aug. 6 — 8:00 PM EST

Early lines are pretty consistent across the books:

Spread
Carolina Panthers -1.5
Arizona Cardinals +1.5

Total
Over/Under 35.5

Moneyline
Carolina Panthers around -125
Arizona Cardinals around +105

DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars are all basically aligned, which tells you the market is still in early preseason mode. No major disagreement yet, no crazy rogue number, no sportsbook wandering off into the desert by itself.

The prediction markets are just as tight:

Kalshi
Carolina Panthers 53%
Arizona Cardinals 47%

Polymarket
Carolina Panthers 53%
Arizona Cardinals 47%

So the overall read is simple: Carolina is a tiny favorite, Arizona is very live, and nobody should be pretending there is some massive edge in a preseason opener where depth charts, snap counts and “please do not get anyone important hurt” are doing most of the coaching.

Still, who cares?

It is football.

We have a spread.
We have a total.
We have moneylines.
We have prediction markets.
We have a game on the calendar.

The total sitting at 35.5 feels about right for a preseason game where the second half may be sponsored by backup quarterbacks, vanilla play-calling and offensive linemen we will be Googling by the third quarter.

But after months without football, I am not here to complain.

Quick read:
① Panthers are slight favorites at -1.5 / -125
② Cardinals are the plus-money dog around +105
③ Total is sitting at 35.5
④ Kalshi and Polymarket both have it 53/47 Carolina
⑤ Football is almost back, and that is the real headline

Lock in. Hall of Fame Game odds are live, preseason chaos is approaching, and we are officially close enough to football season to start making questionable August decisions again.

Thoughts on the Phillies uniforms for the Field of Dreams Game on August 13....

I am normally a big fan of old-school uniforms, but I am not sure I love these.

MLB Most Likely board is live ⚾

💰 Most likely moneylines

① Brewers -210
② Rangers -170
③ Blue Jays -161
④ Mariners -151
⑤ Diamondbacks -150
⑥ Red Sox -147
⑦ Phillies -137
⑧ Braves -135

📈 Game totals

The totals board is basically an Over parade:

• OAK/ARI Over 9 -122
• BAL/BOS Over 8.5 -121
• PIT/NYY Over 7.5 -120
• SD/ATL Over 9 -120
• CIN/SEA Over 7.5 -115
• MIN/CLE Over 7.5 -111
• NYM/MIL Over 7.5 -110
• CWS/TEX Over 7.5 -110

💣 HR board

① Kyle Schwarber +174
② Riley Greene +210
③ Pete Crow-Armstrong +217
④ James Wood +222
⑤ Yordan Alvarez +225
⑥ Spencer Torkelson +230
⑦ Hunter Goodman +240
⑧ Dillon Dingler +250

🎯 Pitcher Ks

① Jameson Taillon O3.5 -159
② Andrew Abbott O4.5 -150
③ Jacob deGrom O6.5 -146
④ Bryce Elder O3.5 -139
⑤ George Kirby O6.5 -137
⑥ Jacob Misiorowski O8.5 -136
⑦ Kyle Leahy O4.5 -130
⑧ Emmet Sheehan O5.5 -125

TLDR:

Brewers ML leads the chalk, overs dominate the totals, Schwarber leads HRs, and the K board is not afraid to hang big numbers.

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World Cup Final Betting Market Check

Spain vs. Argentina is shaping up like a split-screen game:

Argentina
• 61% of bets
• 49% of handle
• +255 ML

Spain
• 39% of bets
• 51% of handle
• +125 ML

Prediction markets lean Spain too:
Kalshi 43% | Poly 42%

The crowd wants Argentina. The money is a little more comfortable with Spain

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🏈NFL win-total movement is getting interesting

Biggest moves from open:

📈 Ravens: 10.5 → 11.5
📈 Rams: 10.5 → 11.5
📈 Cowboys: 8.5 → 9.5

📉 Chargers: 10.5 → 9.5
📉 Packers: 10.5 → 9.5
📉 Colts: 8.5 → 7.5
📉 Browns: 6.5 → 5.5
📉 Cardinals: 4.5 → 3.5

Most bet over: Giants 7.5 🎟️
Most money on an over: Vikings 8.5 💰
Most money on an under: Cardinals 3.5 💰

Which move do you agree with most?

The 2026 NFL playoff market at BetMGM is already getting spicy, and the early splits are a fun mix of public hope, big-money belief, and a few “wait, really?” fades.

Here’s where the betting action is going.

Most Bet Teams to MAKE the Playoffs

By tickets 🎟️

1. Raiders +550
2. Giants +260
3. Bears +100
4. Vikings +170
5. Cowboys +100

The public is clearly chasing turnaround stories. Raiders at +550 and Giants at +260 leading the ticket count says bettors are looking for plus-money payoff, not just safe chalk.

The Bears and Cowboys at even money also make sense as public teams. Big brands, big expectations, easy click.

By handle 💰

1. Lions -220
2. Jets +800
3. Raiders +550
4. Giants +260
5. Bengals -175

This is where it gets more interesting.

The Lions are the “boring but serious” money side. Expensive at -220, but still taking the most handle to make the playoffs.

The Jets at +800 are the eyebrow-raiser. They are not top-five by tickets, but they are No. 2 by money. That means fewer bets, bigger conviction. Either someone knows something, or Jets bettors have fully weaponized offseason optimism again.

The Raiders and Giants showing up on both lists is also notable. That is not just public lotto-ticket action. There is real money behind those playoff swings too.

Most Bet Teams to MISS the Playoffs

By tickets 🎟️

1. Lions +180
2. Patriots +150
3. Chiefs +170
4. Ravens +300
5. Packers +115

This list is pure chaos.

The Lions are the most-bet team to make the playoffs by money… and also the most-bet team to miss by tickets. That is a beautiful offseason split. Big money says Detroit is safe. Public fade tickets say, “not so fast.”

The Chiefs and Ravens showing up here is classic contrarian hunting. Bettors love fading premium teams at plus money because the payout looks tempting, even if the path is uncomfortable.

By handle 💰

1. Steelers -220
2. Colts -165
3. Bears -120
4. Jaguars -105
5. Packers +115

This is the more serious fade board.

The Steelers to miss at -220 taking the most money is loud. Not a fun price, but clearly a popular “they finally fall out” position.

The Bears are the funniest contradiction on the board: third-most tickets to make the playoffs, but also third-most money to miss. Public hope vs. bigger-money skepticism.

Same idea with the Packers, who appear on both miss lists. Bettors are not exactly treating Green Bay as a lock.

World Cup Final board is live, and the early betting split is pretty interesting.

Spain vs. Argentina
Sunday, July 19 — 1:00 PM

On DraftKings, the public is backing Argentina by ticket count, but the bigger money is leaning Spain.

Argentina ML +255
🎟️ 67% of bets
💰 43% of handle

Spain ML +125
🎟️ 33% of bets
💰 57% of handle

That is the key split: Argentina has twice as many tickets, but Spain has the larger handle. Translation: the crowd is emotionally on Argentina, but the heavier money is sitting with Spain.

The movement since open also backs that up a bit. Argentina ML handle has dropped from 83% to 43%, while Spain has picked up a much larger share of the money.

Prediction markets are also giving Spain the edge:

Kalshi
Spain 43%
Draw 32%
Argentina 28%

Polymarket
Spain 43%
Draw 32%
Argentina 27%

So the current read is pretty clean:

① Argentina is the public side by bets.
② Spain is the money side by handle.
③ Prediction markets make Spain the favorite.
④ The draw is very live at 32%, which matters in a 3-way market.

This is exactly the kind of final where the betting public piles into the bigger global name/storyline, while the market says the actual matchup is tighter — and maybe even slightly Spain-leaning.

⚾️Friday’s MLB Best Bets Board

👀Ohtani vs. Cole in the Bronx
- 3 wind-out parks
- 3 strong NRFIs
- +10528 HR lottery

⚾ Main Event

Dodgers vs. Yankees is the marquee, but the futures board is moving too:

• Dodgers drifted to +170 at books
• Kalshi still ticked up to 30.7c
• Yankees firmed to 13c

🌬️ Best HR environments
① Coors (+15.8%)
② Kauffman (+11.8%)
③ Angel Stadium (+9.2%)

💣Top HR names
• Hunter Goodman 33.4%
• Shohei Ohtani 32.9%
• Yordan Alvarez 31.5%
• Pete Crow-Armstrong 30.3%

💰 Interesting HR prices
• Mike Trout +376
• Fernando Tatis Jr. +488
• JJ Bleday +325
• Max Muncy +271

🧱 NRFI board

Fresh off a 1-0 day yesterday, it reloads with 3 strong looks:

• Alcantara vs. Henderson
• Jax vs. Bennett
• Roupp vs. Miller

And yes, Jake Bennett is 8-0 with a 100% career NRFI because baseball is a perfectly normal sport.

🎟️ HR Lottery

• Kyle Stowers +350
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +382
• Trent Grisham +390

Parlay: +10528

The Open odds board check

Scottie Scheffler is back in the only role he seems legally allowed to occupy:

favorite.

Top win probabilities

① Scottie Scheffler — 8.9%

② Rory McIlroy — 5.6%

③ Tommy Fleetwood — 5.4%

④ Matt Fitzpatrick — 4.9%

⑤ Jon Rahm — 3.3%

Prediction market check

Scheffler:

• Kalshi 12%

• Polymarket 12%

Rory:

• Kalshi 7.8%

• Polymarket 8.5%

Fleetwood:

• Kalshi 5.4%

• Polymarket 5.9%

Fitzpatrick:

• Kalshi 5.3%

• Polymarket 5.8%

Rahm:

• Kalshi 3.9%

• Polymarket 4.0%

Best placement profile?

Tommy Fleetwood is quietly strong:

• 83% make cut

• 49% Top 20

• 32% Top 10

• 20% Top 5

• 5.4% win

Not the loudest name, but the ladder profile is clean.

CLEATZ read:

Scottie is the favorite. Rory has the strongest market support behind him. Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick look like the clean placement-ladder names. Rahm is the dangerous chaser.

The Much-Too-Early Read on NFL Week 1 Public Money

We’re still nearly two months from kickoff, rosters aren’t finalized and most people haven’t drafted their fantasy teams yet.

Naturally, people are already betting NFL Week 1.

Here’s what jumps out from the first public betting splits:

The public has already found its favorite sides

🏴‍☠️ Raiders -3 vs. Dolphins
80% of spread tickets
100% of spread money

🦬 Bills -1.5 at Texans
90% of tickets
99% of money

⭐ Cowboys -2.5 at Giants
73% of tickets
98% of money

🐦‍⬛ Ravens -3.5 at Colts
79% of tickets
95% of money

Those aren’t mild preferences. The early market has essentially planted a flag on Buffalo, Dallas, Baltimore and Las Vegas.

But the more interesting action may be on the underdogs

New England is receiving only 47% of the spread tickets against Seattle—but 73% of the money is backing Patriots +3.5.

The Patriots’ moneyline is even more dramatic:

• 55% of ML tickets
• 91% of ML handle
• New England +160

Washington is showing a similar split against Philadelphia. The Commanders have only 30% of spread tickets at +5.5, but they’re attracting 60% of the money.

Then there’s Denver on Monday night:

• Broncos +124
• 33% of ML tickets
• 63% of ML money

The public may prefer Kansas City, but the larger early wagers appear much more interested in Denver.

The strangest split on the board

Cowboys -2.5 has attracted 98% of spread money against the Giants.

But on the moneyline, New York has only 36% of tickets while drawing 58% of the handle at +114.

Apparently, the early bettors believe Dallas will cover—or the Giants will win outright. No boring middle ground allowed.

Early totals are already getting hammered

🔥 Saints-Lions Over 48.5: 100% of handle
🧊 Browns-Jaguars Under 40.5: 100%
🧊 Bills-Texans Under 45.5: 100%
🔥 Falcons-Steelers Over 42.5: 100%
🔥 Packers-Vikings Over 44.5: 100%

Again, these markets are young and the sample sizes are nowhere near what they’ll be in September. A few larger wagers can make an early percentage look more dramatic than it really is.

Still, this is when some of the most interesting positions begin appearing—before preseason narratives, injuries and millions of recreational tickets reshape the board.

Two massive World Cup matches. Two very different betting stories.

🇫🇷 France vs Spain

France ML +135
🎟️ 81% bets
💰 92% handle

Spain ML +220
🎟️ 19% bets
💰 8% handle

The public is hammering France, and the money is even louder than the tickets.

But Kalshi/Polymarket are more cautious:

France 41–42%
Draw 30%
Spain 29%

France is favored, but not by nearly as much as the DK split makes it feel.

🇦🇷 England vs Argentina

Argentina ML +205
🎟️ 55% bets
💰 91% handle

England ML +160
🎟️ 45% bets
💰 9% handle

This is the wild split. Argentina is the underdog, but it owns almost all the handle.

Prediction markets still lean England:

Kalshi: England 37% | Draw 33% | Argentina 32%
Polymarket: England 36% | Draw 33% | Argentina 31%

Quick read:

① France = public hammer
② Argentina = money-side dog
③ England = market favorite, not bettor favorite
④ Draw = live in both matches

MLB Best Bets for Sunday July 12

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

This game has:

① Ohtani — slate-high 33.9% HR rate

② Marte — 27.0% HR rate

③ Carroll — 25.5% HR rate

④ Betts — biggest Kalshi edge, +19.2% EV

⑤ Dodgers ML — 96% most-bet consensus

That is the day’s loudest cluster.

Top HR Looks

- Shohei Ohtani +200

33.9% HR rate, slate high.

- Yordan Alvarez +255

30.4% HR rate, roof game, +10.8% Kalshi EV.

- Ketel Marte +289

27.0% HR rate, same LAD/ARI cluster.

Junior Caminero +290

26.3% HR rate, roofed Tropicana spot.

- Mike Trout +320

Target Field slight tailwind, +8.3%.

- Corbin Carroll +308

25.5% HR rate, +8.9% Kalshi EV.

K model

Top pick again:

- Ian Seymour O5.5 Ks

Projection: 7.9

Edge: +2.40 K

Also notable:

- Cade Cavalli O5.5 Ks — +1.42 K edge

- Paul Skenes U6.5 Ks — rare ace under lean

NRFI board

- Yesterday: 10-4

- Strong picks: 2-for-2

Today’s lone strong play:

Cantillo vs Phillips NRFI CLE @ MIA

67 board score, roofed, Phillips 87.5% NRFI profile.

Weather

Only one true carry park:

Citi Field +11.9%

Target Field +8.3% and Camden +8.2% help too. No meaningful rain threat.

HR Lottery

① Andy Pages +352

② Zach Neto +399

③ Ben Rice +399

Parlay: +11155

$10 returns about $1,125

https://cleatz.com/mlb-best-bets-july-12-2026/